Transcript NSS SSG Space Weather Architecture Study Transition

Space Weather
NSS SSG
Space Weather
Architecture Study
Transition
28 September 1999
Briefing Purpose
• Provide Space Weather ADT Overview
• Review Transition Plan Development
• Summarize Space Weather Transition Plan
• Show Relationship with the National Space
Weather Program (NSWP)
• Set the Stage for:
• Transition Plan Approval by NSS SSG
• Signing of the Space Weather Architecture
Implementation Memorandum
Space Weather Overview
What is Space Weather?
And Why Should I Care?
KEY IMPACTS
Conditions on the sun and in the
solar wind, magnetosphere,
ionosphere, and thermosphere that
can influence the performance and
reliability of space-borne and
ground-based technological systems
as well as endanger human life and
health . - Space Weather TOR 1998
Domains:
Solar, Magnetosphere,
Ionosphere, &
Thermosphere
Phenomena: EM Radiation, Charged
Particles, Geomagnetic
Storms, Electron
Density, Scintillation,
Neutral Density,
Aurora, Solar RFI
Ionospheric
Space
Density Scintillation Radiation
HF Comm

GB Radar


GPS



SB Radar



Geolocation



UHF SATCOM


Other SATCOM

SBIRS

SB EO Imager

OTHER IMPACTS
•LEO Satellites - Neutral Density,
•GBR (Polar) & SBIRS Low- Auroral Emissions
•GBR & SATCOM - Solar Radio Noise
•Power Grids - Ground Induced Currents
Operational Impacts:
Ionospheric Effects on Signals
Ionospheric
Turbulence
Scintillation
Undisturbed
Ionosphere
Signal to Noise
Ratio (dB)
Ionosphere
• GPS Loss of Lock
• SATCOM Outages
• Radar Interference
0
-4
-8
-12
-16
-20
-24
Scintillation Onset
-28
-32
Time : 5 Min Increments
Electron Density
Bend & Delay
XApparent
Location
Absorb
True Location
Ionosphere
• Radar Errors
• Geolocation Errors
• GPS Errors
• HF Radio Outages
Operational Impacts:
Radiation Effects on Spacecraft
• Deep and Surface Charging
– Caused by Low & High Energy Particles
– Discharges cause Upset/Burnout
Solar
Activity
Cosmic
Radiation
• Surface Damage
– Caused by Low Energy Particles, UV & X-Rays
– Degradation of Thermal Control Material
– Damage to Solar Cells
• Single Event Effects (SEE)
– Caused by High Energy Particles
– Memory Changes
– False Sensor Readings
– Processor Latch-up
– Burnout
Current Space Weather
Support System
GPS/NDS
DMSP
CLASSIFIED
ACE
Space
Systems
SOHO
GOES
Yohkoh
DSP
DoD Users
POES
55 SWXS
(AFSPC)
SEC
(NOAA)
Commercial
Users
Ground Stations
• Solar Optical Observing Network (4)
• Radio Solar Telescope Network (4)
• Digital Ionospheric Sounding Sys (16)
• Ionospheric Measuring System (5)
• Neutron Monitor (1)
• Riometer (1)
• Canadian Radio Observatory
• Australian Observatory
• Australian Ionospheric Network (5)
DoD International Civil
• National Solar
Observatories (2)
• JPL TEC Monitors (25)
• Archival Center
• USGS Magnetometer
Network (13)
Future Needs
Past
Surveillance & Comms
Present
Future
Weapons Support, Space Station, Power Grids
Space Control
Weapons Delivery
Increased Demands
•Coverage
•Timeliness
•Accuracy
•C2
•Situational Awareness
Example System Impacts
Scintillation limits space-based radar coverage
Radiation limits processing for direct downlink
Electron density causes geolocation errors
Scintillation breaks space-based cell phone links
ISR satellite failures to charging
SWx Architecture Study
Dec 97
Apr 98
ORWG
TWG
Phase I
“So What”
Integration
Panel
Analysis Team
Cost Team
Phase IIA
Phase IIB
Integration
Panel
Team
1
Team
2
Team
3
Integration
Panel
III
Each Team Determine Axis &
Define Architecture Alternatives
* ADT Consensus
Jul 98
SWx
Agencies
Design
Analysis
I
II
May 98
Post ADT
Integration
Panel
Cost
Tiger
Aug 98
Transition
Team
DCG & SSG
Review & Approve
Jan 99
NSSA
Tracking
Sep 99+
9 SWx Architecture Study
Recommendations
Pursue a Space Weather Architecture Vector
Space Weather Importance Awareness
Space Weather Requirements
Coordinated Space Weather Architecture Acquisition
Space Weather Information Archive
Integrated User Information
Centralized Space Weather Center
Research & Development are Key to Space Weather Architecture
SWx and Man-Made Effects Information Coordination
SWx Architecture Deliverables
22 March 1999
NSS SSG Briefing
Draft Architecture Guidance Memo
Transition Strategy
Study Final Report
31 July 1999
CD Archive of Study
28 September 1999
Transition Plan
Architecture Implementation Memo
30 April 1999
Final Report Background Material
ASD (C3I) & NOAA directed to lead Space Weather Architecture Transition Team
Team tasked to develop an Architecture Transition Plan
Series of meetings, working groups, assignments used to build plan
Stake holder organizations participated
Team membership
Organizational coordination and endorsement
Comments/concerns resolved and incorporated into plan
SWx Community prepared to implement plan
NSWP Implementation Plan development/coordination
Transition Team Schedule
Jan
Feb
DCG2 SSG-WG
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
SSG
Sep
SSG-WG SSG
Meetings
Transition
Strategy
Roadmap
Stakeholders
Roles &
Responsibilities
Draft
Final
Transition
Plan
Development
Draft
ID Orgs
Working
Coordination
Mtg
Draft
Final
Plan
Final
Plan
Coordinate/Implement
K/O
Mtg
Working Group Meetings
NSSA Effort
Lead
Support
Track
ODASD(C3I)
& NOAA
Support
Lead
Support
Transition Planning Responsibilities
NSSA
OFCM
DOI
DOE
DOT/FAA
USASMDC
NAVSPACE
9a. Provide timely data to Space Control Mission
9b. Incorporate Man-made effects into SWx Arch
DTRA
8b. Leverage R&D missions
NSF
8a. Provide a robust R&D to develop
Operational Capabilities
NRO
7. Evolve to an Integrated SWx Center
LABs
6. Provide SWx Info in User Terms and use
Common Dissemination Channels
SMC
3. Develop & Update SWx Requirements
4. Identify Cognizant DoD Acquisition Agent
5. Consolidate and Expand Archival System
NASA
2. Integrate SWx into User Systems
AF/XOW
1. Pursue Recommended SWx Arch Vector
AFSPC
OVERALL TRANSITION PLANNING
USSPACE
- OCR
NOAA
- OPR
S - Support
ASDC3I
- Overall
S
SWx Transition Plan Development
Inputs
Outcomes
SWx Architecture Study
Recommendations
Tasks, Actions &
Activities
Current SWx
Support System
Architecture Element
Timelines
Stakeholder
Plans and Funding
Investment Strategy
SWx Transition Plan Actions
Recommendation 1: Space Weather Architecture Vector
• Increase emphasis on Operational Model development
• Ensure improved Operational Capabilities based on User Needs
– National Security priorities include Ionospheric and Radiation
Environment Specifications and Forecasts
– Civil priorities also include Geomagnetic Warnings and Forecasts
• Evolve to Improved Forecast Capabilities, as phenomenology is better
understood, models mature and user needs are better defined
Main Actions
• Sensors: Design and deploy new/improved SWx space- and
ground-based sensors
• Models: Develop and implement advanced SWx operational
models
• Funding: Align funding with prioritized SWx project list
1 satellite @ “Stereo”
Architecture Sensors
Suite hosted on
3 NPOESS
1 satellite at Sun-Earth Line
Interplanetary
Telescope package
hosted on HEO satellite
All-Sky Cameras (10)
10 Sensors (Polar)
SCINTILLATION
18 SBIRS - LO
Riometer
2 GEO satellites - Solar and Earth
Observations
Satellite Drag from
Tracking Network
4 SEON
20 Sensors
(Geomagnetic Equator)
SCINTILLATION
1 LEO
Equatorial
satellite
50 Sensor Packages (Worldwide)
GPS/VHF, Ionosonde,
Magnetometer, etc
Piggy-back packages
of particle detectors
hosted on many satellites
SWx Sensor Timeline
C/NOFS
C/NOFS Ops
NPOESS
DMSP/POES
YOHKOH
EIT
SXI
Ops EIT
Solar Polar Imager
Ops CORONAGRAPH
LASCO
Solar Wind SENTRY
GEOSTORMS
ACE
GOES DSP
CEASE
Magnetospheric Constellation
IMAGE
Ops IMAGE
STEREO
Japan L5
STEREO VIEWER
COSMIC
SCINDA
GPS/OCCULT
Ops SCINDA
JPL Net
Ops TEC NET
IONOSONDES
USGS
INTERMAGNET UPGRADES
ALL SKY Ops SYSTEM
SOON/RSTN
ISOON/SRBL/SRS
OPS Riometer
Thule
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
DRAG Observer
2000
Equatorial Scintillation
Polar-Orbit Sun Synchronous
Solar X-ray/EUV Imager
Solar Coronagraph
Solar Wind on Sun-Earth line
Particle Detectors (LEO to GEO to HEO)
Auroral Imager
Stereo Solar Observer
GPS Occultation
Scintillation--Polar and Low Lat
TEC Networks
Ionosonde Sounders
Magnetometer Networks
All Sky Cameras
Solar Optical/Radio
Riometer Chain
Satellite Drag Observation
YEAR
R&D
Less than fully capable operational system
Observing Gap
Fully Capable Operational System
Architecture Models
Space Weather Models
Forecast Warning Specification
Solar Flare
Coronal Mass Ejection Prediction
Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation
Solar Wind
Solar Energetic Particles
Radiation Belt
Magnetic Particles & Fields
Ionosphere
Equatorial Scintillation
Polar Scintillation
Polar Cap Absorption
Neutral Environment
Aurora Emissions
Aurora Clutter
Operational Models Timelines
Neutral Environment Forecast
Ionosphere Forecast
Magnetospheric Field Forecast
Magnetospheric Particle Forecast
Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) Forecast
Equatorial Scintillation Forecast
Radiation Belt Forecast
Solar Energectic Particle Forecast
CME Propagation Forecast
Solar Flare Forecast
Polar Scintillation Forecast
Data Assimilation Model
Solar Wind Forecast
Auroral Emission Specification
Auroral Clutter Specification
Polar Cap Absorption Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
No model or only empirical models whose accuracy does not meet user requirements
Year
Model in use includes some physical understanding but does not meet most user requirements
Evolved capability but model still does not meet some critical requirements
Fully Capable Model
2020
2025
SWx Transition Investment
(FY98$M)
Desired Architecture
$400
$350
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
04 005 006 007 008 009 010 011 012 013 014 015 016 017 018 019 020 021 022 023 024 025
20
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
FY FY FY
FY FY FY FY FY
FY FY FY FY FY FY
FY FY FY FY FY
FY FY FY
Basic Research
Development
Procurement
(All Stakeholders)
O & S Phase
Space Weather Funding
NASA
20%
Cost
Per Agency
Current DoD Share
of SWx Funding
$200M / year (FY98$)
$113M / year (FY98$)
Other
9%
DOD
57%
88%
12%
NOAA
14%
DOD
NOAA
NASA
Other
9% Other = NSF @8% and USGS @1%
Air Force
Navy
Army
SWx Transition Plan Actions
Recommendation 5: Space Weather Information Archive
• Consolidate and Expand the Existing Archival System
– Capture Space Weather Environmental Data and System Impacts
• The Archival System Should Be:
– Centrally Managed
– User Focused
– Incorporate Standard Formats
– Accommodate Multi-level Security
Main Actions
• Develop program to archive space weather impacts
• Develop program to archive space weather data
• Provide climatological studies for system design and planning
Example: Recommendation
Actions to Activities
Recommendation 5: SWx Archive
Action 1. Establish requirements for space weather environmental data
archive (including observations, models, forecasts, and climatology but
not impacts on systems).
Linkages: Recommendations 1 and 8.
Rec. Activity
#
Organization
Responsible
Start
End
Issues/Impacts
Implement Implement
5-1-1 Form interagency working group
through OFCM/NSWP
AF/XOW, NOAA,
USPACECOM, AFSPC,
AFWA
NASA, NSF, AFRL, DOI,
DOE
4
5-1-2
Survey and establish uses
of data archive SWx data
access for research,
development, validation of
models into operations
AF/XOW, NOAA,
USPACECOM, AFSPC,
AFWA
NASA, NSF, AFRL, DOI,
DOE
1st QTR 00
5-1-3 Determine required types of
archive (observations, forecasts,
models or model output, validation
and verification results)
AF/XOW, NOAA,
USPACECOM, AFSPC,
AFWA
NASA, NSF, AFRL, DOI,
DOE
2nd QTR 00
5-1-4 Compile survey of existing data
archives
AF/XOW, NOAA,
USPACECOM, AFSPC,
AFWA
NASA, NSF, AFRL, DOI,
DOE
1 QTR 00
TH
st
QTR 99
Benefits
4TH QTR 99 (Can be same group as 5- Adequate archive
4). Issue will be getting is required to
agency participation
design and test
models before ops
implementation.
4th QTR 00
Adequate archive
is required to
design and test
models before ops
implementation.
st
1 QTR 01
nd
2 QTR 00
Adequate archive
is required to
design and test
models before ops
implementation.
Major portions of
archive already
exist but in
scattered
locations—these
can be used and
reduce new work
to be done
Exit Criteria
Cost
Terms of reference
and appointment of
members of working
group
$ 10K
List of applications
$ 24K
requiring SWx archive
data
List of types of
archive data required
to meet applications
$ 24K
List of existing
archives including
location, agency,
types of data, and
format
$ 16K
NSSA-NSWP Linkage
NSSA
NSSA ADT
SWx Architecture
Study
NSWP Program Council
NSWP Strategic Plan
Committee for Space Weather
NSWP Implementation Plan
DOD DOC NASA NSF
DOT
SSG
DOE
DOI
AGM
Agency Processes
AIM SWx Architecture
Transition Plan
JROC
National Space Weather Capability
The Way Ahead
• Transition Plan Approval by NSS SSG
• Issue Architecture Implementation Memorandum
• Space Weather Architecture Stakeholders
–Implement Transition Plan
–Track progress for their organization’s actions
–Recommend Updates and modifications as needed
• NSSA and C3I Advocate Space Weather Architecture
–Key “Injection Points” (Requirements, Planning & Budget)
–Provide NSS SSG Status
–Support Stakeholders in coordination as needed
• OFCM Monitor and Update Plan as needed
–Maintain Transition Plan Database
–Track overall progress