Transcript NEC Standard Presentation Format

State of the Space
Weather Prediction Center 2008
Thomas J Bogdan
Space Weather Program Manager
Space Weather Prediction Center Director
Safeguarding Our Nation’s Advanced Technologies
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New Developments
•
•
•
•
•
•
New Leadership
New Organization/Focus on Core Mission
New Name: Space Weather Prediction Center
New Customers
New Customer Requirements
New Partnerships for Progress
– First Summit Between CSWIG and SWPC
• New Budget Numbers
• New Solar Cycle
– First Sunspot of Cycle 24
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New Leadership
VADM Conrad
• NWSEO
US DoC
Lautenbacher
Warren
Mary Glackin
Miller
NOAA
NIST
Jack Vickie
Hayes Nadolski
Mary NESDIS
NWS
&tc
Louis
Kicza
Uccellini
NCEP
Tom
Bogdan
Rod
Viereck
SWPC
SWS
Branch
AWC
ATS
Branch
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WFOs
&tc
Kent
Doggett
&tc
NGDC
&tc
Bill
Denig
Safeguarding Our Nation’s Advanced Technologies
&tc
STP
Division
Chris
Fox
&tc
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Mission
To provide space weather products and services
that meet the evolving needs of the nation
Office of the Directorate
Director, Tom Bogdan
Execute
Project Management Team
Strategic Direction Team
Plan
Coordinate Administer
Manage
Collaborate
Lead
Space Weather Services Branch
Branch Chief, Rodney Viereck
Customer Focus Section
Product Services Section
Forecast Office
Doug Biesecker
Steve Hill
Ron Zwickl
Assess
Transition
Provide
Survey
Analyze
Evaluate
Recommend
Design
Fabricate
Test
Install
Deliver
Forecast
Validate
Verify
Administrative & Technical Support Branch
Branch Chief, Kent Dogget
Assist
Facilitate
Support
Maintain
Enable
4
New Customers
SEC Product Subscription Registrations
2005 - 2008
7000
Total Number of Registrations
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
January
February
December
October
November
September
July
August
May
June
April
March
February
December
January '07
October
November
September
July
August
May
June
April
March
February
December
October
November
September
July
August
May
June
April
March
February
0
January ' 06
1000
Month
EACH MONTH
400,000 Unique
Customers
50,000,000 File
Transfers
120 Countries
Represented by
Users
67,500,000 Hits
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0.3 TBytes of Data
Downloaded
5
New Customer Requirements
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Evolving Customer Base
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New Partnerships for Progress
• Coordination: National Space Weather Program
MOUs
• Strategy: Leverage External Research Activities
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New Budget Numbers
FY 03
FY 04
FY 05
FY 06
FY 07
FY 08
President’s
Request
$8.2M
$8.3M
$7.5M
$7.2M
$7.3M
$6.1M
House Mark
$5.2M
$5.3M
$7.5M
$7.2M
$5.0M
$6.1M
Senate
Mark
$7.2M
--------
$5.0M
$7.0M
$7.3M
$6.1M
Enacted
$5.2M
$5.3M
$6.8M
$3.9M
$3.9M
$6.1M
$5.9M
$7.1M
$6.4M
Actual
Oceanic & Atmospheric
Research
National Weather Service
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New Solar Cycle
First
Sunspot
of Cycle
24
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New SWx Prediction Models:
GIPc
OPUS:
Online
Positioning User
Service
http://www.ngs.noaa.gov/OPUS/
What_is_OPUS-RS.html
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New SWx Prediction Models:
D-Region Absorption + Polar
Safeguarding Our Nation’s Advanced Technologies
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New SWx Data Streams:
The Ongoing Quest for an
L1 Solar Wind Monitor
Launched: August 25, 1997 on a Delta II
Weight: 756.5 kg
Real-time Data: Broadcast at 434 bps via Sband since January 21, 1998.
Ground Station Tracking: Three stations
located in the US, UK and Japan.
Space Weather Products: Solar wind speed,
density, temperature and magnetic field, protons
above 50 keV, electrons from 38 keV to 315
keV.
Life Expectancy: 5 years. Fuel needed to
maintain orbit exhausted by 2022.
GOES 11/12/13 IN
GEOSTATIONARY
ORBIT
ABOUT 1 % OF THE
DISTANCE FROM THE
EARTH TO THE SUN,
ACE IS OUR SPACE
WEATHER SENTINEL.
EARTH
EARTH’S
MAGNETOSPHERE
MOON
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New SWx Data Streams:
NOAA Operational Satellites
Potential Gap
XRS
XRS SXI
Damaged!!!!!
SXI XRS
XRS SXI
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Auroral Boundary
Auroral Energy Deposition
Auroral Energy Particles
Auroral Imagery
Electric Field
Electron Density Profile
Geomagnetic Field
In-situ Plasma Fluctuations
In-situ Plasma Temperature – Te & Ti
Ionospheric Scintillation
Neutral Density Profile
Medium Energy Charged Particles
Energetic Ions
Neutral Winds (P3I)
Latency
Orbital Coverage
2020
2010
2000
1980
• NPOESS
1990
New SWx Data Streams:
NPOESS
GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG
YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRROOOOOY Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y RRRRRRRR
YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
RRRRRRRRRYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
RRRRRRRRROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOGGGGGGGGGGGGGG
GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGY Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Meets IORD requirements
Meets most IORD requirements
Fails to meet most IORD requirements
Fails to meet any IORD requirments
Not available
DMSP
Block
Upgrade
POES
Block
Upgrade
DMSP
Block
Upgrade
Metop A
Launch
NPOESS
C1 Launch
DMSP
End
POES
End
Only includes DMSP, POES, METOP and NPOESS
Data from research platforms not included
Measurement were taken prior to POES 6 and DMSP 5D-2 (circe 1975 ) not shown
Solar Wind Properties*
Programmed Mission Duration
Extended Mission
Y Y Y Y RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGY Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? RRRRRR
Safeguarding OurISEE-3
Nation’s
Advanced Technologies
------>
ACE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->
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New Drivers: 2008-2020
• Civil Precision GNSS Users
• Global Ionosphere Specification & Forecast
• Next Generation Air Transportation System
• Global Ionosphere Specification & Forecast
• LEO Radiation Environment Specification & Forecast
• Commercial Satellite Industry
• LEO/MEO/HEO Radiation Environment Specification & Forecast
• NASA Exploration Mission to the Moon
• Extra-magnetospheric Radiation Environment Specification & Forecast
• Trans-polar Aviation Operations
• Polar Ionosphere Specification & Forecast
• LEO Polar Radiation Environment Specification & Forecast
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New Drivers: 2008-2020
• Commercial Space Enterprise
• Global Ionosphere Specification & Forecast
• LEO Radiation Environment Specification & Forecast
• Solar Flare Forecasts
• Regional Geomagnetic Storm Forecasts
• COOP of Power Distribution Grids
• Regional Geomagnetic Storm Forecasts
• COOP of DHS National Critical Systems
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Ultimate Driver
Solar Maximum 2012
Ready or Not – Here It Comes
QUESTIONS?
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