Transcript AIMES AIMES: Climate, Humans and Models System:

Analysis, Integration and Modeling of the Earth
System: AIMES
http://www.aimes.ucar.edu
AIMES: Climate, Humans and Models
Integrative and Applied Earth Systems Themes have
allowed AIMES flexibility to develop productive collaborations with
diverse communities across to social sciences and humanities:
IHOPE: archaeology, anthropology, historical ecology, environmental
history, ecology, information systems, paleo climate and ecology
The IPCC: climate modeling, including AOGCM, ESM, EMIC;
integrated assessment with new activities in IAV in partnership with
WGCM and ESSP
YSN: urban chemistry and climate, land use and decision making, cultural
use and impact of fire:past, present and future, integrating bio and
ethnographical information to understand human-environmental
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processes
IHOPE TIMELINES
2009 January: Mayanist at SAR
July: YSN in France: Integrating disparate data
April/Fall: e-corridor planning and workshop: Japan
September: next IHOPE NCEAS WG – integrating Data
2008 January: SAR in Santa Fe: tDAR and IRIS: SW US
November: NCEAS IHOPE working group (3 meetings)
IHOPE Research Prospectus published
2007 January: Dahlem conference book published by MIT Press - already
in second printing
November: IHOPE synthesis paper published in Ambio
2006 January: IHOPE Stockholm ResPlan meeting
March: Akita: Resilience and e-corridor
November ESSP meeting in Beijing
2005 Summer Dahlem conference
October: Towada and Sustainable Futures
2004 Summer Dahlem planning meeting
2003 IGBP/IHDP joint meeting in Banff
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Summary NCEAS Working Group:
Big Picture
•How do societies change over time and what are the thresholds?
•How can historical ecology and environmental history provide a framework for
contemporary and future policies and land use practices?
•How to develop and communicate integrative world histories and Earth system
science across disciplines and communities?
•How to develop a terminology for comparative analyses?
•Need a minimum criteria of primary information for IHOPE contributions
•To achieve an integrated history, IHOPE needs credible methodology
•IHOPE contribution: systemic understanding of the past to test hypotheses of:
e.g., resilience, complex systems and emergent properties of human interactions
with the environment.
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NEXUS Concepts for IHOPE
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Summary NCEAS Working Group:
Implementation
• Prototype Nexus concepts towards common vocabulary
• Social and Natural Variable list for a data system
• Addressing need to develop consistencies across and within communities (e.g.,
archaeology, modeling)
Logistics
• Funding opportunities for a coordinator and PDS: SRC and ASU
• Draft governance structure
• Next meeting: implementing data system September, 2009
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IPCC AR5: The data handshake
between IAMs and ESMs
Kathy Hibbard (NCAR-AIMES)
Nebojša Nakićenović (IIASA-WGCM)
Steven Rose (US EPRI)
Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR/NOAA)
Detlef van Vuuren (PBL)
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Integrated Assessment
Framework
IPCC 2001
Climate
Change
Impacts
Vulnerabilities
Emissions
Mitigation
Adaptation
Socio-Economic
Development Paths
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
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Research and Assessment Foci by WG:
WGI: Earth System Model (ESM) – includes global climate modeling community
WGII: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation (IAV): includes social and ecosystem impacts
communities
WGIII: Mitigation (IAM): includes integrated assessment modeling communities
Near-term (~2035)
ESM: Extreme events, higher resolution, atmospheric chemistry
IAV: Observed impacts, adaptation
IAM: Baselines, near-term mitigation, climate-air pollution policy
interactions
Long-term (2100 and beyond to 2300)
ESM: Climate dynamics, climate-carbon cycle interactions
IAV: Vulnerability studies, multiple stresses
IAM: Overshoot and other stabilization, etc.
Source: Moss et al., 2008
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New scenarios development process:
parallel vs. sequential approach
Figure from Moss et al., 2008
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New scenarios development process:
Critical path of scenario development
RCPs
Development of New IAM
Scenarios
Selection,
Extension to 2300,
Downscaling
Continued Development and
Application of IAM Scenarios
CMC Develops RCP-based
Ensemble Runs & Pattern
Scaling Analysis
IAM
Integration of CMC
Ensembles with
IAM NEW
Scenarios
Story Lines
IAV Research Based on AR4 Climate and
SRES IAM scenarios
15 months
Winter 2010
April 2009
Fall 2007
Integration Phase
12 month
Publication
Lag
Spring 2013
24 months
Parallel Phase
IAV
IAV research based on
new CM and IAM scenarios
Spring 2012
15 months
CMC
Figure from Moss et al., 2008, 2009
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Representative Concentration
Pathways in perspective
Span RF scenarios
Represent 10-90th emissions
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SRES 2
Scenarios selected to span climate space.
(and new scenario development process with
scientific communities as responsible party)
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Scenarios for Whom?
Three major user communities:
1. Climate modeling community—need scenarios to
provide a coherent, internally consistent, time-paths
for Earth System Models.
2.
Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability modeling
community—need scenarios to provide a coherent,
internally consistent, time-paths to assess the
consequences of potential climate changes and to
set the context for adaptive strategies.
3.
Integrated assessment community—to provide a
coherent, internally consistent, time-paths to assess
the costs of emissions mitigation
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Integrated Assessment Framework:
IAMC , WCRP, and IGBP
Impacts
Vulnerabilities
Climate
Change
Adaptation
Emissions
Mitigation
Revised
Fluxes
Concentrations
Socio-Economic
Revised
Development
Development
Paths
Paths
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
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RCP data hand-shake:
An IAM-ESM collaboration
 IAM teams need to extend their published scenarios to satisfy the full
data request for climate and atmospheric chemistry modeling
 Harmonize definitions and historic data
 Provide additional detail for emissions
 Provide additional detail for land use & land cover change
 Extend scenarios to 2300 – currently only 2100
 Consistency and coordination between the communities required and
essential to increase comparability and provide a smooth transition from
historic to future periods
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RCP Land Use from the IAMs
Land-use and land-use change data will also
be provided on a gridded basis:
–Cropland
–Harvested forest area (secondary forests)
–Deforested area (primary forests)
–Pasture and grazing land
–Urban land
Supplementary data that has also been
requested includes:
–Irrigated area
–Timber and wood harvest amounts (and
disposition)
–Standard of living indicator
–Fertilizer use
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RCP Sectoral
Detail
The RCP emissions data will be provided in greater sectoral
detail than for previous scenario exercises:
–Ground Transportation
–International Shipping
–Aviation
–Power Plants, Energy Conversion, Extraction, and Distribution
–Solvents
–Waste (landfills, wastewater, non-energy incineration)
–Industry (combustion & processing)
–Residential and Commercial
–Ag waste burning on Fields
–Agriculture (e.g. Animals, Rice, & Soil)
–Savannah Burning
–Land-Use Change (Deforestation)
Greater detail is due to spatial, chemical, temporal, and differing sectoral
coverage within ESM models
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Northern High Latitudes: Proposal for an
FTI
AIMES and CLiC agreement to improve global models: process
to paramaterization for carbon and permafrost (also with GCP
and others)
• Meet in Hamburg in May: land use/land cover and wetland
(organic and anaerobic development and implementation from
ecosystem to global models
• AIMES and CLiC to meet in Stockholm early June with
Carbon Pools and Permafrost (CAPP) project of IPY
–
Talking to IGAC, iLEAPS, PAGES on a more
integrative proposal: to be further discussed this week
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Moving MareMIP forward: a C-LAMP for
Marine Biogeochemistry in Global
Models
Terrestrial land and biogeochemistry components of the global
Earth system models adapting C-LAMP (Carbon-Land Model
Intercomparison Project protocols (http://www.climatemodeling.org/clamp/)
For ocean biogeochemistry models, Corinne Le Quère and
Scott Doney with Yasuhiro Yamanaka to begin diagnostics and
model intercomparison protocols Fall, 2009: hoping for IMBER
and SOLAS collaboration
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Young Scholar’s Network:
Fostering trans-disciplinary understanding
 Meet other young scientists from around the world and disciplines.

Exchange advice and contacts towards career development.

Seek feedback, its applicability to other disciplines and publishing opportunities.

Become part of a network of future scientific leaders, including those like yourself who
could become journal editors, research grant donors and department heads.

Develop international and cross-disciplinary collaborations, leading to cutting-edge
science.

Foster science education, outreach and in-reach by learning and informing peers and nonscientific communities about your work.
http://www.aimes.ucar.edu/ysn/YSN.5workshop.uxeau.html
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Young Scholar’s Network:
Improving Efficiency!! (thanks to Lisa!)
http://www.regonline.com/Checkin.asp?EventId=707339#
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Next AIMES SSC: 30 September – 2
October joint with WGCM
An AIMES Open Science Meeting:
10-12 May 2010 at the Edinburgh
International Conference Center: Follow
model from first AIMES SSC meeting: ALL
Core Projects of IGBP and relevant IHDP,
ESSP projects invited.
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