Global Change Research in Belgium 1990-2002

Guy P. Brasseur

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Chair, International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Hamburg, Germany

An enigma from the ice…

The only place this much carbon can “hide” during the ice ages is in the ocean  strong coupling between climate and marine carbon cycle Methane comes mostly from wetlands  strong coupling between climate and terrestrial ecosystems and carbon cycle Antarctic record of temperature, CO 2 and CH 4

… pointing into an uncertain future…

History shows that physical climate, ocean dynamics, and terrestrial ecosystems are a strongly linked system.

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In the last 150 years, we have introduced massive perturbations in some of the forcing variables -- How will the system respond???

The Earth System

The Earth: A Complex Dynamical System

• In nonlinear complex systems, minute actions can cause long term, large scale changes. These changes can be abrupt, devastating, surprising, unmanageable.

The International Geosphere Biosphere Programme IGBP

IGBP provides scientific knowledge to improve the sustainability of the living Earth.

Specifically IGBP studies the interactions between biological, physical, and chemical processes, and human systems. It collaborates with other programmes to provide the knowledge necessary to respond to environmental change.

GLP IGBP Projects

• Atmosphere: IGAC • Ocean: IMBER and GLOBEC • Land: GLP • Ocean-Atmosphere: SOLAS • Land-Atmosphere: iLEAPS • Land-Ocean: LOICZ • Integration: PAGES and AIMES

AIMES

www.ess-p.org

Health

Challenges for the Future

Based on P. Cox, 2004

CLIMATE

Human Emissions Direct and Indirect Effects / Feedbacks on natural sources

AEROSOLS

Oxidants: OH, H 2 O 2 HO 2 ,O 3 (Gas-phase)

CHEMISTRY

Greenhouse Effect Heat island effect

GREENHOUSE GASES

Fires: soot Mineral dust CH 4 , O 3 , N 2 O, CFC CO 2 N deposition 0 3 , UV radiation Biogenic Emissions:CH 4 ,DMS,VOC’s Dry deposition: stomatal conductance

ECOSYSTEMS

Human Emissions Human Emissions LAND WATER / CITIES Damming / Irrigation / Emission of heat Land-use Change, Fires

The future: a full treatment of climate-chemistry-ecosystem-land surface feedbacks

Carbon and Climate

ECHAM5 T63L31 CO2 transport 610 GtC 1860 - 2100 CO2 emissions 2300 GtC MPI-OM THC upwelling HAMOCC export production C transport 40.000 GtC JSBACH interface carbon pools albedo soil, hydrological and energy balance phenology photosynthesis stomatal conductance

Atmospheric CO2 concentration (global and annual mean) CO2 acts on radiation , stomata and photosynthesis (with climate feedback)

80 ppm year

CO2 acts on stomata and photosynthesis, but not on radiation (no climate feedback)

Difference in carbon uptake between experiments (with minus without carbon cycle - climate feedback) 2100 [ kgC / m 2 ]

positive feedback negative feedback

Atmospheric CO2 Difference

Atmospheric CO2 Feedback

C4MIP (IGBP/AIMES)

Air Quality and Climate Change

Climate Response to Potential Improvement in Air Quality

• In blue: GHG unchanged after year 2000 (commitment experiment).

• In Red: GHG unchanged and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols removed after year 2000 (sensitivity experiment).

(%) (K)

Response in Temperature and Precipitation

(30 year average) • • • Temperature increase larger than 1K over the continents, larger than 4K in the Arctic.

Temperature and precipitation changes bear some resemblance with greenhouse warming experiments A significant increase in precipitation is found in Eastern Pacific, suggesting an El-Nino like change in the mean climate state.

Global Change and the Social System

Including Social feedbacks

Human perturbation Earth System Model Human impact

Including Social feedbacks

Human perturbation Earth System Model Land use Water use Energy production and consumption Population growth Economic growth Structure of the economy Human health Human impact

Challenges for the Future

• Earth system science should contribute to the themes that will drive fundamental research in the 21 st century: • • • Interfaces between the micro- and the macro-worlds Interfaces between the living and the dead nature Interfaces between nature and culture

Thank You

Towards Operational Earth System Monitoring and Prediction

Towards Operational Earth System Monitoring, Assimilation and Prediction Systems

Atmosphere Models The Earth System Unifying the Models Ocean Models Climate / Weather Models Hydrolog y Process Models Land Surface Models Terrestrial Biosphere Models The Predictive Earth System Natural Hazard Prediction

Megaflops Gigaflops Teraflops

2000

Petaflops 2010