Transcript Document 7318132

Science and Society
Finding Explanations
"You know ... something happened a long time ago …
They got together and swore a pact to the Devil."
"They said, 'We will serve you if you get us free …’
"And so, the Devil said, 'OK, it's a deal.' And they kicked the
<enemy> out. You know, <they> revolted and got
themselves free. But ever since, they have been cursed by
one thing after another."
Finding Explanations
"You know ... something happened a long time ago in Haiti.
… They got together and swore a pact to the Devil,"
Robertson said on the CBN’s"700 Club" Wednesday.
"They said, 'We will serve you if you get us free from the
French.' True story." That's right: Robertson seems to
suggest the Haitians brought the earthquake on themselves,
in a deal with Satan.
"And so, the Devil said, 'OK, it's a deal.' And they kicked the
French out," he went on. "You know, the Haitians revolted
and got themselves free. But ever since, they have been
cursed by one thing after another."
Another Explanation
How Do We Choose?
• Can we prove correctness?
• What about falsifiability?
Science, the Public, and Public Policy
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/21/science/earth/21climate.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
Judith Curry’s View
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/27/a-climatescientist-on-climate-skeptics/
Is Climate Science Trustworthy?
http://views.washingtonpost.com/climatechange/2010/01/is_climate_science_trustworthy/all.html?hpid=smartliving
New Smog Standards
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/07/smog-epa-reuglation
The Dawn of a New Day?
http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2009/01/13/steven-chu-onenergy-policy-science-meets-politics/
Obama’s Inauguration Speech
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/01/20/obama.politics/
Bush’s State of the Union Addresses
http://www.nytimes.com/ref/washington/20070123_STATEOFUNION.html
US Lead in Science?
The U.S. remains the world's
science and technology leader,
but other countries are gaining
ground, the National Science
Board said Friday [January 15,
2010] in its biennial report on
science and engineering.
More Data on Who Stays
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870490560457502680052201122
6.html
Two Main Thrusts
• Is there a problem?
• What does science bring to the table?
Where is Science Today?
• Scientific thinking isn’t as common as we might
like.
• Our government and our leaders don’t value
science as much as we might like.
• Scientists often shy away from immersing
themselves in public debate.
Harris Poll
November, 2007
Believe In
Don’t Believe In
2005
Change
BelieveIn
2005-2007
Not Sure
God
%
82
8
10
82
-
Miracles
%
79
10
12
73
+6
Heaven
%
75
12
14
70
+5
Angels
%
74
12
14
68
+6
Jesus is God or the Son of God
%
72
15
13
70
+2
The resurrection of Jesus Christ
%
70
16
15
66
+4
Survival of the soul after death
%
69
12
19
70
-1
Hell
%
62
22
16
59
+3
The Devil
%
62
23
15
61
+1
The Virgin birth (Jesus born of Mary)
%
60
22
18
58
+2
Darwin’s theory of evolution
%
42
31
26
N/A
N/A
Ghosts
%
41
35
24
40
+1
Creationism
%
39
27
34
N/A
N/A
UFOs
%
35
36
29
34
+1
Witches
%
31
51
19
28
+3
Astrology
%
29
46
25
25
+4
Reincarnation – that you were once another person
%
21
50
29
21
-
Evolution
Meet the Flintstones
The Texas Tribune, Feb. 17, 2010:
http://www.texastribune.org/stories/2010/feb/17/meet-flintstones/
What do Texans Think?
What Do Our Leaders Say?
The volatile issue of teaching creation science in public schools popped up in the
Alaska governor's race this week when Republican Sarah Palin said she thinks
creationism should be taught alongside evolution in the state's public classrooms.
Palin was answering a question from the moderator near the conclusion of
Wednesday night's televised debate on KAKM Channel 7 when she said, "Teach
both. You know, don't be afraid of information. Healthy debate is so important, and
it's so valuable in our schools. I am a proponent of teaching both."
The Republican Party of Alaska platform says, in its section on education: "We
support giving Creation Science equal representation with other theories of the
origin of life. If evolution is taught, it should be presented as only a theory."
Anchorage Daily News, October 27, 2006
http://dwb.adn.com/news/politics/elections/story/8347904p-8243554c.html
What is a Theory, Anyway?
What is a Theory, Anyway?
• Gravity
What is a Theory, Anyway?
• Gravity
• Heliocentric cosmology
What is a Theory, Anyway?
• Gravity
• Heliocentric cosmology
c 150 Ptolemy published his theory
1543 Copernicus published
De revolutionibus orbium coelestium
1616 The Catholic church condemned it
1633 Galileo convicted of heresy for "following the
position of Copernicus, which is contrary to the true
sense and authority of Holy Scripture,"[
1835 Original version of De revolutionibus
dropped from prohibited list
What is a Theory, Anyway?
• Gravity
• Heliocentric cosmology
• Plate tectonics
What is a Theory, Anyway?
• Gravity
• Heliocentric cosmology
• Plate tectonics
Mid 1800s
1912
Late 1960s
Geosyncline theory
Continental drift
Plate tectonics
What is a Theory, Anyway?
•
•
•
•
Gravity
Heliocentric cosmology
Plate tectonics
Big bang
What is a Theory, Anyway?
•
•
•
•
•
Gravity
Heliocentric cosmology
Plate tectonics
Big bang
Evolution
Evolution
On the Origin of Species, 1859
The Voyage of the Beagle,
1831-1836
The Galapagos Islands
The Galapagos Islands
The Galapagos Islands
The Galapagos Islands
The Galapagos Islands
The Galapagos Islands
The Galapagos
Islands
The Galapagos Islands
The Galapagos Islands
The Galapagos Islands
The Galapagos Islands
The Galapagos Islands
Important Question #1
Why do so many people say,
Evolution is only a theory
But they do not say,
Gravity is only a theory
Or
Heliocentricity is only a theory
Or
Relativity is only a theory
Important Question #2
What price do we pay if we cave and allow schools to
teach, in science classes:
• That evolution is just “a theory”
• That creationism is a reasonable alternative
Important Question #2
What prices do we pay if we cave and allow schools to
teach, in science classes:
• That evolution is just “a theory”
• That creationism is a reasonable alternative
This issue is thus way bigger than just,
“How did species come to be as they are?”
It is at the core of science as an activity.
Kenneth Miller on Evolution
“The idea that there is ‘design’
in nature is very appealing.
People want to believe that
life isn’t purposeless and
random. That’s why the
intelligent design movement
wins the emotional battle for
adherents despite its utter
lack of scientific support.
“To fight back, scientists need
to reclaim the language of
‘design’ and the sense of
purpose and value inherent in
a scientific understanding of
nature.”
And, From the Other Side
http://www.creationevidence.org/
Texas Board of Education
One take on what happened last year:
http://www.evolutionnews.org/2009/01/recap_texas_board_of_education.html
The final vote:
http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/03/27/texas.education.evolution/index.
html
Sticking Head in Sand
Gallup Polls results
Why Don’t People Just “Do Experiments”?
Dan Ariely on our buggy moral code
http://www.ted.com/talks/dan_ariely_on_our_buggy_moral_code.html
It’s Easy to Make Mistakes
And not just because there are things we want to
have be true.
There are also:
• Logical mistakes
• Statistical mistakes
Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc
• In research hospitals, a higher percentage of
patients die than in community hospitals.
• ? Therefore, you should avoid going to a
research hospital.
Correlation vs. Causality
Every Summer Olympics year is a leap year.
Correlation vs. Causality
Every Summer Olympics year is a leap year.
Every Summer Olympics year is a US Presidential
election year.
Correlation vs. Causality
Girls who watch soap operas are more likely to
have eating disorders.
Correlation vs. Causality
%
only children
%
eldest but not only
%
only or eldest
Correlation vs. Causality
Norwegian data using only single births. Out of 580,198 live
births, there were:
36,776
6.3%
only children
211,386
36.4%
eldest but not only
248,162
42.8%
only or eldest
“Intelligence test scores and birth order among young Norwegian men (conscripts) analyzed within and between families”,
Tor Bjerkedal, Petter Kristensen, Geir A. Skjeret and John I. Brevik, Intelligence (35) 5, Sept – Oct, 2007, 503-514.
Correlation vs. Causality
So what may be going on?
http://www.indiana.edu/~intell/birthOrder.shtml
Using Statistics
Which is more likely:
• Fred has lung cancer.
• Fred is a heavy smoker and he has lung cancer.
The Shell Game
You make one guess. I then turn over a shell with no pea. Should you stick with
your guess or change your mind?
Our Government Isn’t Always on Our Side
• Sometimes the problem may be just not enough
money.
• Other times, there is outright interference.
• Conflating science with public policy.
The Role of Government Regulators
• What should be/is the role of government regulators?
• What does science have to do with regulation?
http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/the-quiet-revolution?page=0,0
Not Enough Money
• U.S. Government Scientists Absentees at AIDS 2008
Outright Interference
• Government Scientists Accuse Bush Administration of
Interfering, Misleading on Climate Change
• Suggesting a Link between Abortion and Breast Cancer
• National Institute on Drug Abuse Subjects Scientific
Appointees to Litmus Test
Conflating Science with Public Policy
• These are science issues:
• Is this drug safe?
• Is this species endangered?
• Is this chemical toxic?
• Does this educational strategy work?
• These are public policy issues:
• Will the use of this drug offend some constituency?
• Should we develop this land?
• Should we force this company to clean up this land?
• What do we want to teach our children?
Before the Money
John Snow (1813 - 1858)
http://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/snow.html
Money Talks
• Manufacturing Uncertainty
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/michaels1
“Doubt is our product.”
• Legislating “Sound Science”
http://www.defendingscience.org/upload/BabaETAL.pdf
The Funding Effect
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2008/07/14/AR2008071402145.html
But Good Science May Rule
http://www.cmu.edu/homepage/health/2009/winter/just-drive.shtml
The Origins of Government Funding of
Science
Vannevar Bush’s Memex machine, described in the essay, “As We May Think”
in 1945.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vannevar_Bush
Science: The Endless Frontier
• Vannevar Bush’s response (1945) to a request from
President Roosevelt to answers to several science/public
policy questions:
• Tech transfer of war results
• Organizing efforts to fight disease
• How can government aid research by others?
• How to develop tech talent
• “It has been basic United States policy that Government
should foster the opening of new frontiers.”
http://www.nsf.gov/about/history/vbush1945.htm
Government-Funded Big Wins
Can you think of any?
Government-Funded Big Wins
• The Internet
• Speech recognition (Dragon)
• Human genome
Global Expenditures
Perspective
U.S. Population:
306,000,000
Perspective
U.S. Population:
308,749,762 (2/24/10)
per person
NSF FY 2009 budget:
$ 6,490,000,000
$21.02
Perspective
U.S. Population:
306,000,000
per person
NSF FY 2008 budget:
$ 6,490,000,000
$21.02
Iraq War total (to 2008): $ 600,000,000,000
per year
$ 100,000,000,000
$ 326.80
What Does Science Bring to the Table?
What Does Science Bring to the Table?
• Facts and expertise
• Methods of reasoning
• Rational argument
• Scientific method
One Example
Goals: Prevent HIV infection and teenage pregnancy
Question: Which educational policy is more effective:
• Abstinence only.
• Comprehensive sex education.
How to answer the question:
• What feels right.
• Collect the facts.
http://www.guttmacher.org/media/evidencecheck/2010/02/03/EvidenceC
heck-Jemmott-Study.pdf
Scientists Can Take Action
A Letter:
Groups Across Political Spectrum Urge
Congress to Include Federal Scientists in
Pending Whistleblower Bill
http://www.ncac.org/Protect_Science_Whistleblowers.cfm