Transcript The Cook Islands limited experience applying impacts assessment methodologies Pasha Carruthers Research Officer PICCAP Program, Environment Service June 2001

The Cook Islands limited
experience applying impacts
assessment methodologies
Pasha Carruthers
Research Officer
PICCAP Program,
Environment Service
June 2001
Cook Islands Experience
• Methods applied limited mainly to
analogues, expert judgment,brainstorming
• Not Tested
• Why so limited?
– Relevance to scale
– Capacity and Technology
– Poor understanding of other methods
• Future impact assessment methods?
Cook Islands
– Island micro-state
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Latitude 9-22°S
Longitude 157-166°W
limited land size (240 sq km)
small population size (16,000?)
limited natural resources
external economic and physical
impacts important
• geographic diversity with both
high and low islands
Socio-economic elements
• Tourism
• Pearls
• Commercial and
Subsistence
Seafood
• Coastal
Flood Plain
Agriculture
Activities
• needed to produce “The Initial National Communication”
• Signatory to UNFCCC 1992
• PICCAP - Pacific Islands
Climate Change Assistance
Programme: 1997
– Implemented by SPREP (South
Pacific Regional Environment
Programme)
– Assist countries to meet their
obligations under the
Convention
– Provides technical assistance,
training, capacity building
– Funding of Co-ordinators and
in-country activities
• Country Team Approach
• V&A Course
– Expected to integrate
emphasis on model
scenario generation PACCLIM
– Instead focus on:
• expanding the V&A
statement to enhance full
representation of the country
• qualitative baselines
• public awareness
Islands
Exposure
Sectors
AsCook
Identified
by Country
Team Matrices
• Agriculture: crop yields, harvest times, crop
viablity, land loss
• Coastal: shoreline erosion and landloss
• Health: increased vector borne diseases,
disaster risk, skin sepsis
• Water resources: saltwater intrusion,
physical damage to infrastructure, drought
• Coastal: shoreline erosion and landloss
11/6/2015
Field Research
• Focal point established
• Overview of the island
• Meetings with
government officials,
community leaders
• Informal discussions
• School and Media
Presentations
• Qualitative observations
including anecdotal
evidence
Challenges
• Trust
• Limited time
• Presenting complex
material
• Getting relevant input
• Recording feedback
• Verifying anecdotes
• Quantifying
observations and
uncertainties
Models and Decisions
• IAM still more theory than practice
– MAGICC, IMAGE & others have benefits but time
consuming to run meaningful(?) simulations
• In truth demonstration tool produced at great
expense has had limited applicability
– not simple, too many errors, closed programs
– useful application at the decision maker level requires a
motivator and a greater level of completeness.
– Better as a training tool, for identifying cross sectoral
considerations
PACCLIM Outputs
Future Directions
– Open Structure Models, focused data collection
– Access to national and international technical expertise
– Improve results obtained from simple methods, interview
skills, checklists
– Reporting Important
• Risk Management and coping ability
• Integrated management plans
• Implementation through policy, National Implementation
Strategy
• Public & Education Awareness
• Continued lobbying for mitigation and adaptation assistance
Levels to Cook Islands V&A Assessments
Geography
Community
Level 1
Environmental Health
Island Specific
Baseline Data Available
Government
Environment Service
Resilience
Country Specific
PICCAP Project
Economic Cost
of Climate Change
Suitable Adaptation
Options
Level 2
Country Team
GEF
Island Councils
Local Decision
Makers
Tradition
Research
Capacity
Level 3
UNDP
APN
SPREP
Models
Public Awareness of
National
Climate Issues
Communications
Sustainability
PICCAP
SURVAS
Global
Regional