Transcript Earth System Science Partnership for Global Change Research

Earth System Science Partnership
for Global Change Research
• an integrated study of the
Earth System,
• the changes occurring to
the System, and
• the implications for global
sustainability.
Start
Integrated Regional Studies
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
World Climate Research Programme
(WCRP)
Established 1980
Sponsors: WMO (1980+), ICSU (1980+) and IOC (1993+)
Objectives
♦ To determine the predictability of climate
♦ To determine the effect of human activities on climate
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
Achievements after 25 years of WCRP
♦ Significantly improved observing systems
(atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere)
♦ Sophisticated coupled climate models
♦ Advanced assimilation techniques and forecast
techniques / systems including ones based on
ensembles of models
♦ L-T predictions possible, e.g. El Nino…
♦ Another level of knowledge about climate
predictability and change
♦ etc.
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
Challenges for WCRP
 Seamless prediction problem
- medium range, weeks, decades, centuries
 Prediction of the broader climate/Earth system
 Demonstrate the usefulness to society of
WCRP-enabled predictions & projections
 Coordinate & implement activities to exploit fully
- new & increasing data streams (environmental satellites
& in situ observations i.e. the Argo system)
- growth in capability & availability of computing
- increasing complexity & breadth of models
- increasing data assimilation ability
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
CLIVAR 1995 
WGNE ACSYS/CliC 1994–2003/2000 
CliC 2000 
WGCM
WGSF
IPAB
WGSAT
WOCE 1990-2002
TOGA
1985-1994
GEWEX 1988 
SOLAS 2001 ->
SPARC 1992
WCRP Domains
GEWEX
CliC
CLIVAR
SPARC
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment
Climate and Cryosphere
Climate Variability and Predictability
Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate
SPARC
GEWEX
CliC
CLIVAR
COPES
Coordinated Observation & Prediction of the Earth System
AIM
 To facilitate prediction of the
climate/earth system variability
and change for use in an increasing
range of practical applications of
direct relevance, benefit and value
to society
Goals
 Determine what aspects of the climate/earth
system are and are not predictable, at weekly,
seasonal, interannual and decadal through to
century time-scales
 Utilise improving observing systems, data
assimilation techniques and models of the
climate/earth system
(-> IGBP, GCOS, NWP centres, …)
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Priorities for the next decade
(agreed at WCRP-Conference, Geneva, 1997)
 Assessing the nature and predictability of seasonal to
interdecadal climate variations at global and regional
scales
 Providing the scientific basis for operational predictions
 Detecting climate change and attributing causes
 Projecting the magnitude and rate of human-induced
change (as input for IPCC, UNFCCC, ...)
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
2005: after 25 years of WCRP
New overarching and integrating
Strategic Framework
Prediction of entire climate system
(→ Earth System)
FGGE → extended weather prediction
TOGA → seasonal prediction (tropics)
THORPEX → deterministic 2nd week
prediction esp high impact weather, GWE
COPES → climate system prediction
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System
COPES
(2005-2015)
Project Contributions:
 observing system components
SPARC
 process understanding
 model components
GEWEX
COPES
CLIVAR
 interaction with global system
CliC
(impact and response)
 assimilation & reanalysis
 prediction & scenarios
 contribution to specific themes
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System
(2005-2015)
SPARC
TF-4
TF-3
GEWEX
COPES
TF-1
TF-SP
CLIVAR
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TF-2
TF-COPES
CliC
CLIVAR 1995 
WGNE
CliC 2000 
WGCM
WGSF
IPAB
TFSP,TF-COPES
WOCE 1990-2002
WG
Obs
TOGA
1985-1994
Assim
Modelling
Panel
Coordinated Observation and
Prediction of the Earth System
GEWEX 1988 
SOLAS 2001 ->
SPARC 1 992
EXAMPLES of specific objectives
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Regional climate change
Systematic errors in AGCM and CGCM
Arid and desert climates
Predictability of monsoons
Contribution to IPCC WG1 report
Improving projection of mean sea level rise
Production of climate data sets
Chemistry – climate models -> ES models
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
WCRP – COPES : Status
 Task Force formed to define and initiate a process to
plan & implement COPES: report to JSC26 in 2005
 COPES discussion document available to WCRP
stakeholders for comments, including suggestions for
Specific Objectives
Reports to JSC
Co-chairs: B.Hoskins, J.Church
Representatives of core projects
Chairs of modeling and obs. panels
Experts in op. prediction, satellite obs., and
funding of large programmes
Will propose organisation and initial objectives
of COPES
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
Modelling Panel
Coordinate modelling across WCRP
Focus on climate system prediction
Liaise with WGOA (assim., initial.,
reanalysis, data gaps)
Oversee data management in
modelling activities
Liaise with IGBP and IHDP
Chair: J.Shukla
GEWEX member: J.Polcher
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
WG on Observation and Assimilation
Coordinates synthesis of global obs. through
analysis, reanalysis, assimilation across WCRP
Facilitates interaction with WMO, IOC, GCOS, GOOS,
etc. wrt to optimization of observing systems
Coordinates information and data management
across WCRP
Takes over tasks of WG on satellite matters
• Chair: K.Trenberth
• Secretariat: G.Sommeria
• Members: J.Shukla, J.Key, W.Rossow,
B.Randel, A.Lorenc, A.Simmons, G.Duchossois,
M.Manton, E.Harrison, CLIVAR ?
• Space agencies? Other experts?
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
Proposal for development of global
climate products (for WGOA)
Systematic re-processing and coordinated reanalysis of all available observations acquired
from various satellite sensors and other data
sources since several decades
• Would be complementary to model re-analyses in
order to define “present climate”
• Would serve as a benchmark to validate climate
models and thus improve our ability to forecast
climate evolution at all time scales
• Would contribute to the development of a
coordinated global observation strategy
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
Task Force on Seasonal Prediction
• Determine extent to which seasonal prediction
of global/regional climate is possible with
current models and observations
• Identify the current limitations of the climate
system model and observational data sets
used to determine seasonal predictability
• Develop a coordinated plan for pan-WCRP
climate system retrospective seasonal
forecasting experiments
• Reported to the JSC in March 2004, the next
report in March 2005
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Hypothesis
• There is currently untapped seasonal
predictability due to interactions (and memory)
among all the elements of the climate system
(Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Cryosphere)
Condition: Seasonal Predictability Needs to be
Assessed with Respect to a Changing Climate
– Use IPCC Class Models
Free Running
Model PDF
t=limit of Predictability?
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
Initial Condition
(t=0) PDF
Contributions of WCRP Projects
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GEWEX:
– provides guidance on how to initialize land surface
– proposes/implements diagnostic studies & numerical experiments:
understanding land-surface feedbacks
CliC:
– provides guidance on how to initialize cryosphere
– proposes/implements diagnostic studies & numerical experiments
CLIVAR:
– provides guidance on how to initialize ocean-atmosphere
– proposes/implements diagnostic studies & numerical experiments:
understanding atmosphere-ocean coupling and variability
SPARC:
– provides guidance on how to prescribe atmospheric composition
– provides guidance on how to initialize the stratosphere
– proposes/implements diagnostic studies & numerical experiments
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
•Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP)
•Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ARMIP)
•Asian-Australian Monsoon Atmospheric GCM Intercomparison Project
•Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)
•Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom)
•Carbon-Cycle Model Linkage Project (CCMLP)
•Climate of the Twentieth Century Project (C20C)
•Cloud Model Feedback Intercomparison Project
•Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)
•Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP)
•Dynamics of North Atlantic Models (DYNAMO)
•Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI)
•Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs)
•ENSO Intercomparison Project (ENSIP)
•GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS)
•GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS)
•GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS)
•Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)
•Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP)
•Models and Measurements II (MMII): Stratospheric Transport
•Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP)
•Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)
•Paleo Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP)
•Project for Intercomparison of Landsurface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS)
•Potsdam DGVM Intercomparison Project
•Potsdam NPP Model Intercomparison Project
•Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations (PIRCS)
•Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project for Asia (RMIP)
•Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP)
•Snow Models Intercomparison Project (SnowMIP )
•Stretched Grid Model Intercomparison Project (SGMIP)
•Study of Tropical Oceans In Coupled models (STOIC)
Ice sheets, cryo
•WCRP F11 Intercomparison
•WCRP Radon Intercomparison
•WCRP Scavenging Tracer Intercomparison
Veg. C cycle
•Ice sheet Model Intercomparison Project
•Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE)
•Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project-2 (SMIP-2) and Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project-2/Historical Forecast (SMIP-2/HFP)
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Hydrology
Proposed ESSP Modelling Strategy
1. Experimentation with current GCMs for
a) hindcasts and projections (IPCC),
b) assimilation and prediction of the coupled system on
seasonal to decadal time-scales
WCRP
2. Improvement and validation of current GCMs used in 1
WCRP
3. GCM components of the carbon cycle, dynamic vegetation, IGBP
tropospheric chemistry, and a range of biogeochemical cycles
cryosphere, CliC
4. Extending GCMs to include these additional components
of the Earth System in turn, as a basis for 1
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
WCRP/
IGBP
Proposed ESSP Modelling Strategy
5.
Development of more holistic models (including EMICs)
to
a) study the interactive aspects of the natural
IGBP
system
a) simulate longer time-scales, e.g. Ice Age Cycle
b) compare and validate with GCMs where possible
6.
Development of models of the interaction between IGBP/
the human and natural systems based on the more IHDP/
DIVERSITAS
holistic models
7.
Simple models for design of the diagnosis of
complex coupled models
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
ALL
Time frame for COPES
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COPES will use the 1979-2004-2009 period to
develop reference climate data sets and
advanced forecasting techniques. This period will
be used for retrospective forecasts of weekly?,
seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variations
• The period 2010-2019 will serve as a testbed for
real time forecasts
• Need and use of special observing periods?
• Defining and planning of COPES will continue
and will be widely presented at the 2006 Global
Change Conference which markes the WCRP’s
25th anniversary
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
Recent and future WCRP Conferences
WOCE Final, San Antonio, 11-15 November 2002
ACSYS Final, St. Petersburg, 11-14 November 2003
CLIVAR 1st Science Conference, Baltimore, 21-25 June 2004
3rd SPARC General Assembly, Victoria, 1-6 August 2004
1st SOLAS Open Science Conference, 13-16 October 2004
CliC 1st Science Conference, Beijing, 11-15 April 2005
5th GEWEX Science Conference, Irvine, 20-24 June 2005
2nd Global Change Conference, Beijing, October (?) 2006
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
JPS for WCRP
David Carson
D/WCRP, ESSP
V. Satyan
D/modelling,
WGNE, WGCM,
START, MP
Gilles Sommeria
GEWEX, WGOA
Valery
Detemmerman
CLIVAR
Vladimir Ryabinin
CliC, SPARC,
fluxes
Ann Salini
Anne Chautard
Margaret Lennon-Smith
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Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
THE TASK (simplified, after Kevin
Trenberth)
 Take a large almost
round rotating sphere ~8,000
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miles (~12,800 km) in diameter.
Surround it with a murky viscous atmosphere of
many gases mixed with water vapour, aerosols, etc..
Tilt its axis so that it wobbles back and forth with
respect to the source of heat and light.
Freeze it at both ends and roast it in the middle.
Cover most of the surface with a flowing liquid that
sometimes freezes and which feeds vapour into that
atmosphere as it shifts up and down to the rhythmic
pulling of the moon and the sun.
Condense and freeze some of the water vapour into
clouds of imaginative shapes, sizes and composition.
Then try to predict the future conditions of that
system for each place over the globe.
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
The Earth System: Coupling the Physical,
Biogeochemical and Human Components
Baltex SSG-XVII, Poznan, 24-26.11.04
Science
Tools
Extended Range Weather Forecasts
Seasonal to Decadal Forecasting
Regional Anomaly Prediction
Anthropogenic Climate Change, Detection & Attribution
Data Assimilation Techniques
Atmosphere
Ocean
Coupled
Operational Observing Systems
Operational Prediction Systems
Earth System Models
Coupled phys.-biol.-chem. Models
Coupled Atm.-Ocean Models
core
FGGE
projects
1980
1990
2000
WOCE
TOGA
2010
CLIVAR
ACSYS
GEWEX
CliC
SPARC