Transcript Document
World Climate Research Programe Climate and Cryosphere Project
Vladimir Ryabinin World Climate Research Programme WMO/ICSU/IOC 1 st IGOS-P Cryosphere Theme workshop, 2-4 March 2005, Kananaskis, Canada
World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
Established 1980 Sponsors: WMO (1980+), ICSU (1980+) and IOC (1993+) Objectives
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To determine the predictability of climate
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To determine the effect of human activities on climate
Earth System Science Partnership for Global Change Research
• an integrated study of the Earth System, • the changes occurring to the System, and • the implications for global sustainability.
Start Integrated Regional Studies
Earth System Questions
e.g. What are the critical thresholds/ switches/ hot spots
Source – Guy Brasseur (IGBP Congress, 2003)
in the Earth System?
Arctic Sea Ice O 3 Carbon cycle
CLIVAR 1995
WGNE WGCM ACSYS/CliC
WGSF IPAB Task Forces
WG Obs Assim C oordinated O bservation and P rediction of the E arth S ystem GEWEX 1988
SOLAS 2001 -> Model ling Panel SPARC 1992
Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System (COPES)
has as its aim:
To facilitate analysis and prediction of Earth system variability and change for use in an increasing range of practical applications of relevance, benefit and value to society.
direct
What is the WCRP’s long-range vision?
Models Regional Climate Anomaly Prediction
Sources of uncertainty
Effects of natural variability Future emission scenarios Modelling of Earth system processes
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Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP)
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Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ARMIP)
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Mid 1970s Mid 1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Around 2000 Present day
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Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)
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Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom)
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Carbon-Cycle Model Linkage Project (CCMLP)
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Climate of the Twentieth Century Project (C20C)
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Cloud Model Feedback Intercomparison Project
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Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)
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Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP)
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Dynamics of North Atlantic Models (DYNAMO)
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Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI)
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Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs)
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ENSO Intercomparison Project (ENSIP)
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GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS)
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GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS)
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GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS)
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Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)
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Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP)
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Models and Measurements II (MMII): Stratospheric Transport
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Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP)
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Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)
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Paleo Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP)
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Project for Intercomparison of Landsurface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS)
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Potsdam DGVM Intercomparison Project
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Potsdam NPP Model Intercomparison Project
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Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations (PIRCS)
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Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project for Asia (RMIP)
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Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP)
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Snow Models Intercomparison Project (SnowMIP )
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Stretched Grid Model Intercomparison Project (SGMIP)
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Study of Tropical Oceans In Coupled models (STOIC)
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WCRP F11 Intercomparison
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WCRP Radon Intercomparison
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WCRP Scavenging Tracer Intercomparison Ice sheets, cryo
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Ice sheet Model Intercomparison Project
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Veg. C cycle
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Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project-2 (SMIP-2) and Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project-2/Historical Forecast (SMIP-2/HFP) Hydrology
Implications of changes in freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet for the climate of the 21 st century
(Fichefet et al., GRL, 2003)
Climate-change scenario with an AOGCM coupled to a 3-D model of the Greenland ice sheet Collapse of the THC
Changes in annual mean total fresh-water flux from Greenland Freshwater flux from Greenland prescribed Freshwater flux from Greenland interactive Changes in annual mean SAT (in °C) averaged over years 2096-2100 + realistic modelling of ice sheets, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, see CliC Conference
Current tasks for WCRP as a whole (only ones dealing with the cryosphere, first slide): Seasonal prediction (what is predictability potential in cryospheric part of the climate system?) Encouraging results in some areas: links do exist Projection of the mean sea level rise (we address the area of highest uncertainty) Ice Age simulations – for the first time there is a potential Cryospheric input to water management – more and more important for national economies
Current tasks for WCRP as a whole (only ones dealing with the cryosphere, continuation but possibly not the end): Future of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean Possibility of abrupt climate change Carbon – its links to cryospheric influences Monsoon prediction (involving Tibetian Plateau) “Cryospheric” contribution to Earth System models and DAS A need to think about a reanalysis of the cryosphere?
On-going polar reanalysis Is CEOP’s approach applicable?
CEOP: The First Global Data Sets of the Water Cycle
Courtesy GEWEX IPO
Considerations (1): Group on Earth Observations GCOS (Implementation Plan: UNFCCC, Kyoto) WCRP WGOA, projects, GEWEX, CLIVAR, SOLAS, OASIS, AICI, NEESPI, IPA, ISAC Work with relevant panels of the WCRP: IPAB, IABP, Arctic Climate Panel, Southern Ocean Panel, Data Management & Information Panel CliC Panel on Cryospheric Observations, role in IGOS-P and in advice to GCOS
Considerations (2): Polar GOOS Mix of proven and experimental technology IPY – opportunity National activities (e.g, such as CRYSYS) Regional bodies, ICARPII
IGOS-P Theme on Cryosphere by CliC and SCAR, to be led by CliC Obs. Panel
• GCOS/GTOS: GTN-P, GTN-G, GTN-H, CALM, etc.
• ARCTIC-HYCOS, GTN-R, GTN-L, etc.
• AOOS • SO OS Marine Cryosphere • GOOS and JCOMM sea-ice compartments Combined system for observations of soil, meeting requirements of hydrology, geocryology, climate and biogeochemical modelling • WGMS, GLIMS Alpine Cryosphere
To combine?
IGOS-P 11, 27 May 2004, Rome
For Marine Cryosphere: Is it only about the sea-ice as such but may be also about observations depending on it, like ice-tethered platforms, polar oceanographic observations and also related observations?
There is a need to at least indicate related systems, a chapter on dependent observations
Partners in the Theme
Proposers: WCRP through CliC, ICSU through SCAR Chair: Jeffrey Key (NOAA) Vice-Chair: Mark Drinkwater (ESA) Core contributors from partners: CliC: Barry Goodison, Vladimir Ryabinin, Chad Dick SCAR: Colin Summerhayes WMO: Don Hinsman 23 other experts indicated agreement to contribute Not all themes yet covered by the authors
IGOS-P Theme on Cryosphere
IGOS-P Cryo website: http://stratus.ssec.wisc.edu/IGOS-cryo First regional workshop: 2-4 March 2005, Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada A workshop in Europe and probably in Asia will follow EARSeL community is cordially invited (urged) to participate!
CliC First Science Conference Cryosphere - The "Frozen" Frontier of Climate Science: Theory, Observations, and Practical Applications 11-15 April 2005 China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China Sponsors
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China Meteorological Administration (CMA)
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Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
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Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration (CAAA)
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CliC International Project Office (CIPO)
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Environment Canada
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Japan Agency for Marine Science & Technology (JAMSTEC)
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NASA Cryospheric Sciences
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Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
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NSF Antarctic Program
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NOAA Arctic Research Office
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Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI)
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World Climate Research Program (WCRP)
Approach
update
user requirements
, study of
how they are met
by current, planned and prospective
in situ
and remotely sensed observations,
propose the way forward trying to build on adequate mix of satellite and in-situ observations,