Transcript Relevance of NWP Impact Studies for Future Satellite Programmes J. Schmetz, R. Stuhlmann, P.

Relevance of
NWP Impact Studies
for Future Satellite
Programmes
J. Schmetz, R. Stuhlmann, P. Schlüssel and D. Klaes
EUMETSAT
Slide: 1
Content
1. Informed decisions on future operational meteorological satellites
and related services must be based on careful analyses
2. Important is: i) continuity and robustness of services and ii)
evolution of services based on new requirements
3. Recall that optimum use of (satellite) observations (for NWP)
requires learning how to use the data
4. An established way to demonstrate usefulness is through impact
studies with an NWP system
5. This presentation takes examples from the future EUMETSAT
Programmes Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) and Post-EPS
(EUMETSAT Polar System) to develop suggestions for an improved
support by NWP to future satellite planning and development
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Reasons behind improvements in NWP due to satellite data
(from Uccellini, 2007)
Improvement is due to a balance among:
• Observations
• Data Assimilation & Model technology
• Computing resources
Estimated 30 - 40% of improvement from observations (principally global
LEO satellite data) and 60 - 70% from data assimilation and modeling
techniques and computing resources
=> This suggests that R&D for advanced utilisation of future missions should
commence early , i.e. well before launch. This activity should be clearly
separated from the development of an operational ground segment
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Pre-launch investment in research on utilisation
will increase the return on investment
Utilisation
of data
100%
(or return on
Investment)
End of
Satellite Life
Ideal learning
curve
Actual learning curve
Satellite Lifetime
Operational readiness
(should be shortly after launch)
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Recalling the status of EUMETSAT future programmes:
- Meteosat Third Generation (MTG)
- Post-EPS (Metop next)
=> The question here is: How can we help those two
satellite programme developments or future programme
development in general?
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
1. Overall Phase A Status
ESA C-MIN 2008
ESA roadmap
Approval full Programme
Go-ahead for Phase B
2007
Start Phase C/D
Phase B
Phase A
2009
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013
2012
2013
PCR
PRR
EUMETSAT roadmap
Phase A
Preparatory
Programme
Council Full
Programme
Approval
2007
2009
2008
Council
Approved the
MTG PP
PCR
2010
2011
PRR
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
MTG will provide
continuity of EUMETSAT Services
2015
2002
1977
MOP/MTP
MTG
MSG
1 observation mission:
-MVIRI: 3 channels
-Spinning satellite
800 kg
2 observation missions:
- SEVIRI: 12 channels
- GERB
- Spinning satellite
Class 2-ton
Implementation of the EUMETSAT
Mandate for the Geostationary
Programme
... 30 years of continuous
operations achieved ...
4 observation missions:
- Combined Imager: 16 channels
- Infra-Red Sounder
- Lightning Imager
-3-axis stabilised satellites
- Twin Sat configuration
2,5 and 2,2 t
Atmospheric Chemistry Mission (UVS)
coordinated with ESA for implementation
via GMES Sentinel 4/5
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
MTG IR Sounding Mission
Mission Frequency range
Band
cm-1
IRS-1
700
770
IRS-2
770
980
IRS-3
980
1070
IRS-4
1070
1210
IRS-6
1600
2000
IRS-7
2000
2175
1800 channels
Spec.res. 0,62 1/cm
Main Contribution
CO2
Surface, Clouds
O3
Surface, Clouds
H2O,
CO,
Coverage
Repeat cycle
Full Disk Coverage
18ox18o
60 min
Local Area Cov.
18ox6o
10 min
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
MTG IR Sounding Mission
Hyperspectral IR sounding with focus
on time evolution of vertically resolved
water vapour structures
Priorities IRS Mission
- Atmospheric dynamic variables with
high vertical resolution (e.g. water
vapour flux, wind profile, transport of
pollutant gases)
- More frequent information on
Temperature and Humidity profiles
for NWP (regional and global)
- Monitoring of instability / early
warning of convective intensity
- Cloud microphysical structure
- support chemical weather and air
quality applications
Coverage
Repeat cycle
Full Disk Coverage
18ox18o
30 min
Local Area Cov.
18ox6o
10 min
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Greatly Improved Atmospheric Motion Vectors with hyperspectral sounder
(Figure courtesy of C. Velden)
Current GOES
High-spectral
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Salient points from: Benefits expected from the infra-red
sounder (IRS) on Meteosat Third Generation
Report to EUMETSAT Council by a working group: J. Eyre,
V. Casse, S. English and J. Pailleux
• MTG-IRS is an infra-red sounder of high spectral resolution
which will provide information on atmospheric temperature,
humidity and wind at high horizontal, vertical and temporal
resolution
• MTG-IRS data will contribute both through assimilation into
convective-scale, regional and global NWP models and
through nowcasting products. They will be particularly
important for observing the advection and convergence of
low-level moisture associated with some types of severe
weather in Europe
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Slides from MTG OSSE study by H. Huang et al.
MTG-IRS: An Observing System Simulation Experiment
(OSSE) on regional scales
Xiang-Yu Huang, Hongli Wang, Yongsheng Chen
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.
Xin Zhang
University of Hawaii, Honolulu. Hawaii, U.S.A.
Stephen A. Tjemkes, Rolf Stuhlmann
EUMETSAT, Darmstadt, Germany
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Slides from MTG OSSE study by H. Huang et al.
Background:
o IRS sounding Mission on MTG will provide high-resolution data which
includes temperature and water vapor information.
o Realistic mesoscale details in moisture are important for forecasting
convective events (e.g., Koch et al. 1997; Parsons et al. 2000;
Weckwerth 2000, 2004).
o Objective: To document the added value of water vapor
observations derived from a hyperspectral infrared sounding
instrument on a geostationary satellite for regional forecasting.
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Slides from MTG OSSE study by H. Huang et al.
Case A: 11 June Case
observed 6-h rainfall
0600 UTC 12 Jun
simulated 6-h rainfall
0600 UTC 12 Jun
The observation is on Polar Stereographic Projection Grid.
The simulated rainfall is on Lambert Projection Grid.
The color scales are different.
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Slides from MTG OSSE study by H. Huang et al.
Summary
• Three storms are well reproduced in the 5 day nature run.
• The calibration experiment shows that the real and simulated
observations have the similar impacts on the analyses increments
and forecasts differences.
• The forecast skill is improved when MTG-IRS T and q retrieved
profiles are assimilated.
Added comment => Demonstration of impact of novel satellite
observing system is very important work; concerted action within (to
be) established framework is beneficial
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
1. Post-EPS Status & Roadmap
Long Term Roadmap
2007
2008
Phase 0
2009
2010
Phase A
2011
2012
2013
2014
Phase B
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Phase C/D
Prep. Programme
EUMETSAT
Approval Processes
2015
IR and MW Sounding
VIS/IR Imaging
Missions
Operations
Other
Missions
Development and Operation Programme
ESA Programme
ESA Ministerial Conf.
go ahead for phase B/C/D
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Post-EPS Candidate Missions
Name
High-Resolution Infrared Sounding (IRS)
Microwave Sounding (MWS)
Scatterometry (SCA)
VIS/IR Imaging (VII)
Microwave Imaging (MWI) - Precipitation
Microwave Imaging (MWI) - Ocean and Land
Radio Occultation Sounding (RO)
Nadir viewing UV/VIS/NIR - SWIR Sounding (UVNS)
Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL)
Multi-viewing, Multi-channel, Multi-polarisation Imaging (3MI)
Dual View Radiometry (DVR)
Radar Altimetry (ALT)
Note: Rank value 3: highest priority
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Rank
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
Study by ECMWF on ‘Observing System Experiments for the evaluation
of degraded EPS/Post-EPS instrument scenarios (1)
• Purpose of study is assessment of detrimental impact of loss Metop
instruments on NWP skill
• Performed by ECMWF with operational model and 4-d variational
data assimilation
• Study is ongoing
• Some preliminary main results for forecast verification for summer
2007:
 combined effect of withdrawing all Metop instruments is much
larger than impact from withdrawal of individual instruments or
all conventional sounders (AMSU-A, MHS and HIRS),
 12 – 24 hour tropical humidity scores are negatively affected,
after 24 hrs a small positive impact at higher latitudes; this is
presumably due to added variability from additional
observations
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Study by ECMWF on ‘Observing System Experiments for the evaluation
of degraded EPS/Post-EPS instrument scenarios (2)
Conclusion on data withdrawal studies:
•
•
they are useful to substantiate a priority ranking for
future satellite missions
they are useful to evaluate the robustness of the
operational satellite observing system
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Thought on an operational deployment scenario:
‘Near’ simultaneous observations from polar orbit by
trains of satellites
• 4-D Var assimilation makes need for distribution of
observations over time less critical ...
• Process studies and research benefits from near
simultaneous observations of many parameters => this
will advance NWP model physics
• => Trains of satellites might be an option for operational
and research missions … serves operational (NWP)
requirements and fosters research on physics?
• Requires detailed studies
• Could be topic for CGMS and CEOS
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Meteosat-8 monitors deep convective clouds
Area over central Africa
Red pixels:
T6.2 > T10.8
How can this be explained?
=> cloud tops overshooting
into lower stratosphere confirmed by “Cloudsat”
observations
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Cloudsat explains physics in areas with T6.2 > T10.8
(from Cloudsat website and adapted by Chung et al., 2007)
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Conclusions and Suggestions (1)
•
OSEs are a good tool to provide guidance on priorities of future missions
and to demonstrate the robustness of the GOS
•
WMO should establish a process that guides activities to demonstrate the
impact of new satellite missions (e.g. guidance on best practice … as well
as coordination of such activities as part of future planning of a ‘Joint
space-based observing systems’);
•
A WMO concerted effort on performing OSSEs in support of future
satellite missions .… this is ongoing
•
=> Benefits: Will be an additional element in support of the planning and
coordination of a future GOS from outset. It could also increase the
incentive to perform satellite/instrument development in a joint and costeffective manner.
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Conclusions and Suggestions (2)
•
Work toward the ‘full exploitation’ of new elements of a satellite observing
system should be part of satellite programme development, i.e. the
development of ‘new science’ for the full utilisation of a satellite mission
should be part of a satellite development (this ought to be different from
the development of the operational ground segment)
•
=> Benefit: Optimum use is reached quicker, resulting in higher return on
investment
•
Further issues and questions:

To what extent is it useful to fly future polar research and operational
satellite missions as ‘trains’? This would help understanding
processes and advance model physics.

Is guidance needed on choices between diversity of polar
observations and better temporal coverage with similar/same
observation (or how many of a kind is enough)?
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008