Transcript The Future of Energy Sources NSTA: 2008 Michael Wysession, Professor of Geophysics Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Washington University, St.

The Future of Energy Sources
NSTA: 2008
Michael Wysession, Professor of Geophysics
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri
Teaching Experience:
•Middle School
•High School
•University College
•Undergraduate
•Graduate
(Writing books with Pearson
Prentice Hall since 2002)
The Future of Energy Sources
For a copy of this presentation, please email me at
[email protected]
Gravitational Potential Energy
Work = Energy = Force x Distance
= (Mass x Accel.) x Distance
= mass x gravity x distance
W = mgh
1 joule = (0.1 kg)(~10 m/s2)(1 m)
Total Rate of World Energy Use =
= 18 Terawatts
(18 trillion apples lifted 1 meter each sec!)
(Total Energy Flow Out of Earth =
= 42 Terawatts!)
>80 % of
energy
sources
are
Fossil
Fuels
Energy
Sources
>80 % of
energy
sources
are
Fossil
Fuels
>90 % of
energy
sources
Energy
are
NonSources
Renewable
We know we eventually have to make the transition
to Renewable energy sources.
* Need ALL sources in the short term
How quickly?
How smoothly?
How much intervention?
OIL & NATURAL GAS
World uses 84 million barrels/day
(31 billion/year)
World reserves = 1 trillion barrels
1 trillion barrels / 31 billion barrels/yr =
32 years (but….not so simple…..)
U.S. uses 21 million barrels/day (25% of World)
(7.7 billion/year)
U.S. reserves = 21 billion barrels (2% - 2.7 years)
U.S. uses 21 million barrels/day (25% of World)
(7.7 billion/year)
U.S. reserves = 21 billion barrels (2% - 2.7 years)
TOTAL U.S. Off-limits Offshore Oil in all areas?
U.S. uses 21 million barrels/day (25% of World)
(7.7 billion/year)
U.S. reserves = 21 billion barrels (2% - 2.7 years)
TOTAL U.S. Off-limits Offshore Oil in all areas?
18 billion barrels (2.3 years) (Est. by U.S. Dept of
Interior Minerals Management Service)
U.S. uses 21 million barrels/day (25% of World)
(7.7 billion/year)
U.S. reserves = 21 billion barrels (2% - 2.7 years)
TOTAL U.S. Off-limits Offshore Oil in all areas?
18 billion barrels (2.3 years) (Est. by U.S. Dept of
Interior Minerals Management Service)
Total Amount of Oil taken out of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska
(North America’s Largest oil field)? 13 billion barrels in
28 years…. 3 billion barrels left
Total Oil in Alaska National Wildlife Refuge?
U.S. uses 21 million barrels/day (25% of World)
(7.7 billion/year)
U.S. reserves = 21 billion barrels (2% - 2.7 years)
TOTAL U.S. Off-limits Offshore Oil in all areas?
18 billion barrels (2.3 years) (Est. by U.S. Dept of
Interior Minerals Management Service)
Total Amount of Oil taken out of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska
(North America’s Largest oil field)? 13 billion barrels in
28 years…. 3 billion barrels left
Total Oil in Alaska National Wildlife Refuge?
10.4 billion barrels (1.4 years) (mean USGS est.)
U.S. uses 21 million barrels/day (25% of World)
(7.7 billion/year)
U.S. reserves = 21 billion barrels (2% - 2.7 years)
TOTAL U.S. Off-limits Offshore Oil in all areas?
18 billion barrels (2.3 years) (Est. by U.S. Dept of
Interior Minerals Management Service)
Total Amount of Oil taken out of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska
(North America’s Largest oil field)? 13 billion barrels in
28 years…. 3 billion barrels left
Total Oil in Alaska National Wildlife Refuge?
10.4 billion barrels (1.4 years) (mean USGS est.)
TOTAL U.S. possible reserves and resources (high-end
guess by DOI MMS)?
U.S. uses 21 million barrels/day (25% of World)
(7.7 billion/year)
U.S. reserves = 21 billion barrels (2% - 2.7 years)
TOTAL U.S. Off-limits Offshore Oil in all areas?
18 billion barrels (2.3 years) (Est. by U.S. Dept of
Interior Minerals Management Service)
Total Amount of Oil taken out of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska
(North America’s Largest oil field)? 13 billion barrels in
28 years…. 3 billion barrels left
Total Oil in Alaska National Wildlife Refuge?
10.4 billion barrels (1.4 years) (mean USGS est.)
TOTAL U.S. possible reserves and resources (high-end
guess by DOI MMS)? 96 billion barrels (12.5 years)
Petroleum burial and recovery.
This is what parts of the U.S. used to look like…..
Seismic Imaging Reveals the Most Likely Places to
Find Oil and Natural Gas.
28% of U.S. Energy goes into Transportation
U.S. Transportation
Energy Sources
Energy Use by
Transportation Method
COAL
Strip Mining
Strong
Correlation
Between Coal
Mining and
Acid Streams
Strip Mine Reclamation (N Dakota): active mining is lower right,
reclamation is upper left.
Reclaimed strip mines (West Virginia)
World reserves of coal = 1 trillion short
tons
World use of coal = 7 billion short tons
1 trillion / 7 billion = 143 years
(and….resources are much larger)
BUT….Large Carbon Footprint!
We now inject 9 billion tons of carbon into the
atmosphere each year.
Oil – 43% Coal – 37% Natural gas – 20%
Increased Greenhouse Effect
 Global Heating
Existing power generation could capture >95% of carbon in
coal using CCS (CO2 Capture and Storage), also known as
Geologic Carbon Sequestration.
The added cost is about 2-4 cents per kilowatt-hour (~30%)
Sep, 2008 – Carbon Sequestration: Vattenfall energy
company, Germany
METHANE
GAS
HYDRATES
ICE
Methane
BIOFUELS
NUCLEAR
FISSION
Uranium Reserves:
World Reserves = 3.5
million tons of uranium
oxide
World Resources = 10
million tons
World Use = 60
thousand tons/yr
Outlook = 150-200
years
BUT….more from
seawater extraction?
A critical
issue is
WATER
USAGE!!!
Most of the western US gets very little rainfall.
Total Rate of World Energy Use = 18 Terawatts
 80% is from Fossil Fuels
Total Energy Flow Out of Earth = 42 Terawatts
Total Rate of World Energy Use = 18 Terawatts
 80% is from Fossil Fuels
Total Energy Flow Out of Earth = 42 Terawatts
Total Power from the Sun at Earth’s Surface =
125,000 Terawatts!!
(125 Quadrillion apples lifted up 1
meter each second!!)
(~7000x Total Human Energy Use!!)
SOLAR POWER
Commercial Panels:
12% Efficiency
Experimental Panels:
22% Efficiency
Nanotech Cells:
>40% Efficiency
Direct electric conversion
with several materials
Mirrors easier/cheaper than
panels
Average Solar Power at any spot
on Earth (factoring in
atmosphere, clouds & nighttime):
250 W/m2
= (4 x 60-Watt light bulbs)
(250 apples lifted each second!)
This shows the amount of land on each continent needed
to be covered with solar panels to fully meet human energy
needs. Assumes 8% efficiency.
With current 12% efficiency: Total U.S. energy needs met
with area of 400 km x 400 km in Southwest desert!!
Example: Kramer Junction
solar power plants, Mojave
Desert, CA
* 150 MW
WIND POWER
(Altamont Pass, California)
Windmills, La Mancha, Spain
Wind turbines, Copenhagen
HYDROELECTRIC POWER
Supplies 20% of
the World’s
Electricity
Some countries
(Canada,
Norway, Austria,
etc.) get most of
their electricity
from hydro
power
Itaipu Dam (Brazil/Paraguay) is the world’s largest hydro
power plant, generating 14 GW)
Geothermal
Wave Energy - the Pelamis Machine
Tidal Energy
The 240 MW tidal barrage installed
at the Rance Estuary in France
Energy Budgets will be a combination of several
different sources
HYDROGEN
Not a Source, but a means of Distribution
Maybe a better way --> New Battery Technology (Electric
Cars)
Number of Cars
Percentage Increase
Electric Cars
Percentage Increase
Prototypes of 75 watt-hour/kilogram lithium ion polymer
battery. Newer Li-ion cells can provide up to 130 Wh/kg and last
through thousands of charging cycles.
Percentage Increase
Tesla Roadster
Percentage Increase
Fiskar Karma
Percentage Increase
Chevy Volt
* First 40 miles run off batteries.
* Small engine extends distance if needed, at >100 mpg
* Plugs into any 120-240VAC outlet
* Aims to sell in mid-$30K’s
Electricity costs, by state
Technology Will Provide New Solutions
HIGH-ALTITUDE WIND POWER
NUCLEAR FUSION
Technology Will Provide New Solutions
SPACE-BASED SOLAR POWER