Transcript Severe weather forecasting and early warning in the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia Tesfaye Gissila National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia To be presented at the SWFDPEastern.

Severe weather forecasting and early
warning in the National
Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia
Tesfaye Gissila
National Meteorological Agency of
Ethiopia
To be presented at the SWFDPEastern Africa Regional Subproject
Management Team (RSMT) meeting
Arusha, 27-31 May 2013
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Vision and Mission of the Agency.
The Forecasting process at NMA.
Operational Activities.
Severe weather forecasting and early warning
The status of the Verification work in the Agency
Out reach
Relations with the Media
New developments
The way forward
1. Vision and Mission of the
Agency
 Vision
To become a world class service giving
Meteorological institution by the year 2021 and contribute to
the social and economical development of Ethiopia

Mission
Provide meteorological early warning and advisory
services for the country’s social and economical development and
for the protection of life and property by collecting, processing,
analyzing and interpreting meteorological and related data on
climate variability and change, air pollution and weather conditions
over the country.
2. The Forecasting Process
• Directorates involved in the Forecasting, early Warning and
Advisory Process are the following:• Meteorological forecasting and Early Warning Directorate
• Aeronautical meteorology Directorate
• Development Meteorology Directorate in charge of agrometeorology, hydro-meteorology and applied climatology.
• Moreover, there are 11 meteorological Branch directorates, who are
expected to issue short term forecast and earl warning about their
locality.
Meteorological Forecast and Early Warning
and Advisory Process
METEOROLOGICAL Forecast, Early Warning
and Advisory Process
Meteorological Forecast and
Early Warning Directorate
NWP
Short to
case team medium
forecast and
PWS case
team
Long range
and Seasonal
forecast case
team
Development Meteorology
services Directorate
Agro-met
Services
case team
Hydro
met
services
case team
Bio-met
(Applied
climatology)
Case Team
3. Operational activities
•
•
Present and past weather for the
assessment of the previous issued
forecast and for the interpretation of the
evolution of the weather
Analysis of remote sensed data
(Cloud type and movement, moisture,
wind, temperature, troughs and ridges
etc..
• Analysis of weather data from
near real time reporting stations
(Through SSB Radio,
Telephone, internet and recently
through GPRS from Autmatic
telemetry systems)
• Model outputs
– Numerical model outputs in
graphical from the different
global centers (chiefly from
NOAA/ENCEP and ECMWF)
– Numerical model products in
different formats from the WRF
model run at the NMA premise
– Numerical model products
(COSMOS) in different formats
from KMD
– Prognostic forecast products in
he form of grids, charts,
pictures etc.
– Through Internet,
Puma/Messirs, SADIS
Forecast products
QPF fro the WRF model
City forecasts on rain condition,
Maximum temperature and minimum temperature, Qualitative
type of categorical area forecasts on rainfall
3.1 Observation and
Telecommunication
• The major problem associated with the
International telecommunication system is that
the upper air sounding undertaken in Addis
Ababa can not be reported through the Global
Telecommunication System (GTS). The major
reason identified here was that of the incompatibility between the telecommunication
system of Kenya and Ethiopia (Digital vs
analogue). But recently this problem seems to
be solved.
Near real-time Operational Stations
Distribution of Meteorological Branch Offices
Service at BO
Mekelle
●
●
Data
Forecast
Bahir
● Dar
●
Advisory
● ● Semera
●
Kombolcha
Assossa
●
●
Debbole
Adama
●
●
Gambella
●
●
●
Jimma●
●
Awassa
●
Robe
●●
Jijiga
●●
There are 11
meteorological Branch
directorates. Each
Meteorological Branch
directorate is expected to
give short term forecasts
and early warning in the
region of its
responsibility
Three-Day Forecast
Daily weather forecasts for selected Cities/Towns
Forecast issued at 15:00 LT
Issue date: Thursday (10/05/2007)
Friday (11/05/2007)
City
Saturday (12/05/2007)
Sunday (13/05/2007)
Temperature
Temperature
Temperature
o
(oC)
(
C)
(oC)
Weather
Weather
Weather
Low High
Low High
Low High
Adama/Nazareth 18
32
L/Rain
17
31
31
P/Cloudy
13
24
L/Rain
12
25
L/Rain
12
25
P/Cloudy
16
28
L/Rain
15
29
L/Rain
15
29
Light
Rain
Semara
28
42
M/Sunny 27
41
Sunny
27
41
Sunny
Bahir Dar
13
28
14
29
L/Rain
14
29
P/Cloudy
Dire Dawa
22
36
P/Cloudy 21
35
P/Cloudy 21
36
P/Cloudy
Harar
15
25
P/Cloudy 15
26
P/Cloudy 14
27
P/Cloudy
16
28
Rainy
16
27
L/Rain
16
27
Light
Rain
Gambella
22
40
Rainy
23
40
Rainy
22
39
Rainy
Mekele
15
26
P/Cloudy 15
26
P/Cloudy 15
27
P/Cloudy
Jijiga
15
30
P/Cloudy 15
29
P/Cloudy 14
29
P/Cloudy
Lalibela
15
27
P/Cloudy 15
27
P/Cloudy 14
27
P/Cloudy
Gondar
14
29
15
29
P/Cloudy
Jinka
17
26
17
26
Light
Rain
Arba Minch
15
29
10
23
Bale Robe
P/Cloudy ==> Partly Cloudy
Addis Ababa
Awassa
Assosa
Rainy
L/Rain
P/Cloudy 16
15
30
17
27
L/Rain
17
30
Rainy
17
30
Rainy
L/Rain
10
23
P/Cloudy
9
23
P/Cloudy
L/Rain
L/Rain ==> Light Rain
L/Rain
L/Rain
M/Sunny ==> Mostly Sunny
4. Severe weather forecasting and
early warning
• The operational threshold for severe weather regarding rainfall is
daily rain fall of 30mm,where as the temperature threshold for the
maximum temperature is 350C and for the minimum temperature, it
is less than 50C(agro-meteorological threshold). There is no precise
threshold for wind up to now. However, reported cases of duststorms over the northeastern and the northwestern parts of the
country, are indicating the importance of giving warning of these
events.
• Most of the severe weather related with rainfall is associated with
convective storms, where cloud top temperature and further
information on the direction of the movement of the stormy clouds is
used to give early warning through mass media, with a lead time of
3 to 6 hours.
• More-over, RSMC-Nairobi Guidance Forecast is also used to get
more lead time, for the early warning of extreme weather events.
The problem is that the forecasted severe weather may miss the




More-over, RSMC-Nairobi Guidance Forecast is also used to get more lead
time, for the early warning of extreme weather events. The problem is that the
forecasted severe weather may miss the area actually affected as can be inferred
from the 21st May 2012 Case Study report for Gode zone (Somali region) flood
due to heavy rainfall
The Event :On 21st May 2012, a severe weather event occurred in the Southeastern part of Ethiopia at place of Gode. The event was in the form of
heavy precipitation. the rainfall amount of measurement was 50.1 mm.
The flash flooding result in loss of house, property and crop yield .
More than 702 households were affected by flash flooding on 21 May
2012 in Gode zone (Somali region). The flooding caused significant
damage, with numerous livestock deaths and damage to planted crops
and stored food reported in the affected areas.
Verification of day 1(Mon 21st )guidance forecast
issued against the actual observed on 21st May 2012.
Relationship between the model forecast and local
observed weather.
Satellite Imagery on 21st May 2012
The
satellite
picture
indicates dense patches of
cloud over the southeastern
Ethiopia (affected areas)
Conclusion:-When the severe weather
guidance forecast from RSMC Nairobi is used
in combination with other remote sensing and
numerical products, it can increase the lead
time for the early waning, however, identifying
5.The status of the Verification
work in the Agency
 The importance of Verification work as greatly
increased due to two major reasons.
 To undertake calibration of NWP model products
to the local condition. Here the major task is to
undertake verification work for the numerical
forecasting products from the Global centers.
 To assess the skill of the Agency’s forecast,
since customers usually enquire about the skill
of our forecast products.
5.1 The Verification Process
• Some of the verification works done in the
Agency include the following:• Verification work done for short term forecast on
the WRF model run in the Agency, based on the
model outputs and the observed values, in
2008.Verification.ppt
• Verification works undertaken on the
assessment of the skill of the seasonal forecast
issued by the Agency.
• Current work undertaken regarding verification
on city forecasts
• Due to the representativeness error, the model
sharpness is relatively poor over eastern half of the
country.
• The models is missing the observed rainfall over
stations located in complex terrain
• The model predicts the dry event almost perfectly
over areas which are not receiving seasonal rainfall
• The model performance is generally high for the
first 24 hours
5.2 Some of the findings
• The model is able to capture the natural variability
of the rainfall
• The model performance is very high over western,
north-western and central parts of the country with
accuracy greater than 80%
• Generally, the model over-forecast the rainfall
event
• The model performance is relatively poor over
north eastern, eastern and southern parts of the
country.
…….Some of the findings
• The model is able to capture the natural variability
of the rainfall
• The model performance is very high over western,
north-western and central parts of the country with
accuracy greater than 80%
• Generally, the model over-forecast the rainfall
event
• The model performance is relatively poor over
north eastern, eastern and southern parts of the
country.
6. Out reach
• Dissemination
techniques
• Radio, television
• Leased line (RMC)
• Printing media
• Post
• Fax, telephone
• Website, e-mail
• Workshop, briefing,
discussion
Users
 General public
 Intl community
 Governmental & NGO’s
 Policy makers
 Aviation
 Aid institutes
 Media institutes
 Disaster prevention orgs’
SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORIES
ON
Water dams
operations
Lakes
Crop mnitoring
FOR
Prime Minister Office
D/Prime Minister
Office
Ministry of Agriculture ,
Ministry of Water and
Energy, Ministry of
Federal Affairs, Ministry
of Defense, Health,
DRMFSS and EPPC
Drought
Prone Areas
Flood prevention
Regional States
Dam Administrations
Mass Media
7. Relations with the Media
• There is airtime to broadcast weather
information two times daily through radio and
once by ETV and OTV.
• During severe weather warning, we use our
schedule airtime and also inform the media as
we have warning and to give us extra airtime.
• If the need arises, Press releases are also used
to put more emphasis on the warning, especially
regarding un seasonal rainfall during the harvest
season and cases of flash floods.
• There is a place on our web site on warnings of
extreme weather events.
7.1 Consultations with the Media
• It has become a regular practice for media
people to be represented in most of the
consultative workshops organized by the
Agency with stakeholders and customers.
• But recently it has be found important or
organizing two major consultative
workshops, where the invitees were media
people.
7.2 Media Workshops
• Two Media workshops have been
undertaken in Mach 2013, the first eing
organized by the by the Ethiopian
Meteorological Society and the second
undertaken by the National Meteorological
Agency through he support of ICPAC.
• The major objective of the two media
workshops was second was undertaken
by the National Meteorological Agency
7.3 Some of the outcomes of the two Media
workshops
• Recommendations for the establishment of Users and
media forums and the preparation of a weather
manual/handbook/guide to be used by producers and
the Media including users of weather forecast in
Ethiopia. Some of the constraints that need to be
addressed include:• The meteorological information provided may not be
presented in a friendly and usable format
• The terminology and language used in the provision of
meteorological information may not be clear and not
fully understood by the user
• Users of the information may make their own
interpretation which may lead to wrong conclusions and
decisions. Moreover, the importance of various types of
educational and awareness raising programs have been
stressed here.
8. New Developments
• The National Meteorological Agency is on the
process of the procurement of a computing
facility through the World Bank supported
Flood early warning project of the Tana Beles
Project. This computing facility is expected
to improve the capacity of the Agency in
NWP. Short term training on the COSMOS
model has also been undertaken for two
meteorologists in Germany.
..New Developments
• The Agency has also started procurement process for an upper
air observation station, automatic weather station telemetry
systems and a meteorological radar through different capacity
building projects. These new activities can be very important
for solving the problem data gaps in the early warning of
extreme weather events.
• There has been a marked increase of projects dealing with
community targeted agro-meteorological service in the country.
These include the Rockfeller agro-meteorology project
supported by the WMO, Climate change adaptation pilot project
over seven locations supported by the UNDP, and recently over
the northern parts of the country in Tigray, with the support of
Ireland and the WMO. These developments have made more
important the improvement of forecast skills for the agricultural
sector.
9. The Way Forward
• It is expected that with the newly
acquisition of the computing facility, the
NWP case team in the NMA will develop
into a centre, so that it can contribute more
to the strengthening of forecasting and
early warning in the sub region.
Thank You