Transcript A bright future for renewables? Charting a path to energy sustainability Ms.

A bright future for renewables?
Charting a path to energy sustainability
Ms. Maria van der Hoeven
Executive Director
International Energy Agency
Turkey, 9 July 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
2DS
a vision of a sustainable
energy system of reduced
Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
4DS
reflecting pledges by
countries to cut
emissions and boost
energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
6DS
where the world is now
heading with potentially
devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
Cleaner coal power
Nuclear power
Renewable power
CCS in power
CCS in industry
Progress is too slow in
almost all technology areas
Industry
Significant action is required
to get back on track
Buildings
Fuel economy
Electric vehicles
Biofuels for transport
© OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables provide good news
Renewable power generation
42%
75%
27%
Average annual
growth in Solar PV
Cost reductions in
Solar PV in just
three years in
some countries
Average annual
growth in wind
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewable power worldwide forecast to accelerate
TWh
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Hydropower
Wind onshore
Bioenergy
Solar PV
Geothermal
Wind offshore
CSP
Ocean
Hydropower remains the main renewable power source
Non-hydro renewable sources grow at fast rates
© OECD/IEA 2012
Non-hydro sources will spread around the world
60
40
20
Onshore
wind
Offshore
wind
Bioenergy
Solar PV
CSP
Geothermal
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
0
2005
Number of countries (>100MW)
80
Ocean
Growth is expected to shift beyond traditional support markets (OECD) to all regions
Number of countries with installations >100MW increases significantly
© OECD/IEA 2012
By 2050, Renewables need to dominate electricity in
OECD Europe
5 000
100%
4 500
1 500
1 000
500
Other renewables
Other
renewables
Other
renewables
Wind
Wind
Wind
80%
21%
70%
Generation share
TWh
2 000
17%
10%
3 500
2 500
13%
90%
4 000
3 000
4%
4%
28%
28%
7%
60%
9%
50%
40%
22%
30%
20%
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
13%
Nuclear
Nuclear
Nuclear
23%
Fossil w CCS
Fossil
w CCS
Fossil
w CCS
27%
10%
7%
2%
0%
2009
2009
10%
1%
53%
0
Solar
Solar
Solar
4DS
2009
4DS
2050
2050
Fossil
w/o
Fossil
CCS
Fossil
w/ow/o
CCSCCS
2DS 2DS
2050
Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with
wind power alone reaching almost a share of 30% in the mix.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewable electricity will continue to rise in Turkey
TWh
120
Turkey historical and projected renewable generation
100
80
60
40
20
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Hydropower
Wind onshore
Bioenergy
Solar PV
Geothermal
Wind offshore
CSP
Ocean
IEA MRMR Report, 2012
Generation from hydro and wind will grow strongly
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables Progress tracked on
different scales
Incremental TWh (2011-17)
Penetration growth (2011-17)
1. Denmark
+ 20.3% (~61%)
+ 85
2. Austria
+ 18.5% (~87%)
3. Brazil
+ 80
3. UK
+ 11.5% (~22%)
4. India
+ 80
4. Turkey
+ 10.1% (~36%)
5. Germany
+ 58
5. Italy
8. Turkey
+43
1. China
+ 700
2. USA
Avg annual growth (2011-17)
1. UK
+ 14.2%
2. China
+ 10.6%
3. Turkey
+ 9.8%
4. France
+ 8.3%
5. Denmark
+ 7.8%
+ 9.5% (~35%)
 Analysis includes 15
countries of focus,
generating 80% of world
renewable electricity
today
© OECD/IEA 2012
Key measures to maintain momentum….
Redesign and adapt
markets
e.g. subsidy removal,
Maintain Supportive
Policies Whilst
Managing Policy
Costs
carbon pricing
Leaders in OECD and BRICS
Continue R,D & D for
Key Technologies
e.g. Offshore Wind,
Enhanced Geothermal ,
Ocean Energy
Enable Integration
e.g. power system
flexibility for integration of
variable RE;
Expand RE Market to
More Countries
e.g. many countries
enacted policies but
deployment yet to occur
New Markets
© OECD/IEA 2012
A smart, sustainable energy system
Co-generation
Renewable energy resources
Centralised fuel production,
power and storage
Distributed
energy resources
Smart energy
system control
H2 vehicle
Surplus heat
EV
A sustainable energy system is a smarter,
more unified and integrated energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electric vehicles need to come of age
Passenger LDV sales (million)
200
FCEV
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
Electricity
150
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
100
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
50
Diesel
0
2000
Gasoline
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be
propelled by an electric motor in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy investment pays off
USD trillion
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy
can generate 3 dollars in return.
© OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012
Recommendations to Governments
1. Create an investment climate of confidence
in clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy
efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research,
development and demonstration (RD&D)
© OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012
For much more, please visit
www.iea.org/etp
© OECD/IEA 2012