Transcript Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future Ms. Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director International Energy Agency Canada, 13 August 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012

Tapping technology’s potential
to secure a clean energy future
Ms. Maria van der Hoeven
Executive Director
International Energy Agency
Canada, 13 August 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
2DS
a vision of a sustainable
energy system of reduced
Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
4DS
reflecting pledges by
countries to cut
emissions and boost
energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
6DS
where the world is now
heading with potentially
devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
Cleaner coal power
Nuclear power
Renewable power
CCS in power
CCS in industry
Industry
Buildings
Progress is too slow in
almost all technology areas
Significant action is required
to get back on track
Fuel economy
Electric vehicles
Biofuels for transport
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables provide good news
Renewable power generation
42%
75%
27%
Average annual
growth in Solar PV
Cost reductions in
Solar PV in just
three years in
some countries
Average annual
growth in wind
Renewable power forecast to accelerate
 Hydropower remains the main renewable power source
 Non-hydro renewable sources grow at fast rates
TWh
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Hydropower
Wind onshore
Bioenergy
Solar PV
Geothermal
Wind offshore
CSP
Ocean
IEA MRMR Report, 2012
© OECD/IEA 2011
Hydro – the backbone of low-carbon
electricity in Canada
900
Other renewables
800
Wind
700
TWh
600
Solar
500
Hydro
400
Nuclear
300
200
Fossil w CCS
100
Fossil w/o CCS
0
4DS
2009
2DS
2050
Renewables, covering today already more than 60% of electricity generation,
could reach a share of almost three quarters by 2050 in the 2DS.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Key measures to maintain momentum….
Redesign and adapt
markets
e.g. subsidy removal,
Maintain Supportive
Policies Whilst
Managing Policy
Costs
carbon pricing
Leaders in OECD and BRICS
Continue R,D & D for
Key Technologies
e.g. Offshore Wind,
Enhanced Geothermal ,
Ocean Energy
Enable Integration
e.g. power system
flexibility for integration of
variable RE;
Expand RE Market to
More Countries
e.g. many countries
enacted policies but
deployment yet to occur
New Markets
© OECD/IEA 2012
A smart, sustainable energy system
Co-generation
Renewable energy resources
Centralised fuel production,
power and storage
Distributed
energy resources
Smart energy
system control
H2 vehicle
Surplus heat
EV
A sustainable energy system is a smarter,
more unified and integrated energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
Smart grid benefits exceed costs by a factor
of between 1.5 and 4.5
..., but direct benefits of investment in one sector may
be found in other sectors.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Decarbonising electricity generation in
Canada
Promoting renewables


Renewable electricity targets
and support policies in place in
several provinces, e.g. FITs in
Ontario
Reducing the carbon
intensity of thermal
plants


Phase-out of coal in Ontario by
2014
Legislation underway to
introduce performance
standards for coal-fired
generation after 2015
700
600
500
400
300
TWh

200
100
0
1990
1993
Natural gas
Coal and coal products
1996
1999
Oil products
Nuclear
2002
2005
2008
Crude, NGL and feedstocks
Hydro
© OECD/IEA 2012
Unconventional gas rises in importance
4DS
2DS
The share of unconventional gas of total gas supply continues
to increase in both 4DS and 2DS.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Two very different profiles for power
generation


Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the
2DS and the 4DS.
From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly.
10 000
10 000
TWh
4DS
2DS
7 500
7 500
5 000
5 000
2 500
2 500
0
2009
2020
2030
OECD
2040
2050
0
2009
2020
2030
2040
2050
Other
non-OECD
Non-OECD
Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to
meet the CO2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Electric vehicles need to come of age
Passenger LDV sales (million)
200
FCEV
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
Electricity
150
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
100
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
50
Diesel
0
2000
Gasoline
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be
propelled by an electric motor in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy investment pays off
Total savings
Fuel savings
Additional
investment
Additional investment
Power
Power
Industry
With
price effect
Transport
Industry
Without
price effect
Residential
Transport
Commercial
Undiscounted
Fuel savings
Residential
3%
Biomass
Coal
Commercial
10%
Oil
- 160
- 120
- 80
- 40
0
40
Gas
USD trillion
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy
can generate 3 dollars in return.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Recommendations to Governments
1. Create an investment climate of confidence
in clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy
efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research,
development and demonstration (RD&D)
© OECD/IEA 2012
For much more, please visit
www.iea.org/etp
© OECD/IEA 2012