Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future Richard H. Jones Deputy Executive Director Australia, Canberra June 27, 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012
Download ReportTranscript Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future Richard H. Jones Deputy Executive Director Australia, Canberra June 27, 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012
Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future Richard H. Jones Deputy Executive Director Australia, Canberra June 27, 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012 ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures 2DS a vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions The 2°C Scenario 4DS reflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency The 4°C Scenario 6DS where the world is now heading with potentially devastating results The 6°C Scenario © OECD/IEA 2012 Sustainable future still in reach Is a clean energy transition urgent? Are we on track to reach a clean energy future? Can we get on track? YES ✓ NO ✗ YES ✓ © OECD/IEA 2012 Recommendations to Governments 1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy 2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future 3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D) © OECD/IEA 2012 A smart, sustainable energy system Co-generation Renewable energy resources Centralised fuel production, power and storage Distributed energy resources Smart energy system control H2 vehicle Surplus heat EV A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system © OECD/IEA 2012 Clean energy: slow lane to fast track Cleaner coal power Nuclear power Renewable power CCS in power CCS in industry Industry Buildings Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas Significant action is required to get back on track Fuel economy Electric vehicles Biofuels for transport © OECD/IEA 2012 Low-carbon electricity: a clean core 45 000 Other Wind Solar Hydro Nuclear Biomass and waste Oil Gas with CCS Gas Coal with CCS Coal 40 000 35 000 TWh 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 Renewables will generate more than half the world’s electricity in the 2DS © OECD/IEA 2012 Renewables are central in the 2DS 60 CCS 22% CCS 22% Nuclear 9% 50 Nuclear 9% Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 3% GtCO2 40 Renewables 28% Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 3% End-use fuel switching 9% Renewables 30 Renewables 28% End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 31% 6DS End-use fuel switching 9% 20 4DS End-use 2DS fuel and electricity efficiency 31% 10 0 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 Renewables provide almost 30% of the cumulative reductions needed to reach the 2DS. © OECD/IEA 2012 Natural Gas gas is not a panacea Around 2030, natural gas becomes ‘high carbon’. CCS must play a role if gas use should continue to grow. © OECD/IEA 2012 Generation capacity (GW) CCS must grow rapidly in power… In OECD North America, almost all coal-fired and 36% of gas-fired generation is CCS equipped; nearly two-thirds of coal-fired generation in China is equipped with CCS © OECD/IEA 2012 …but is applied in industry as well Note: Capture rates shown in MtCO2/year CCS will be applied widely in industry, with applications varying by region and over time © OECD/IEA 2012 GtCO2 Industry must become more efficient 12 6DS 10 Other industries 8 6 Chemicals and petrochemicals Aluminium 4 Pulp and paper 2 Iron and steel 0 2010 Cement 2020 2030 2040 2050 Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies. © OECD/IEA 2012 Electric vehicles need to come of age Passenger LDV sales (million) 200 FCEV Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles Electricity 150 Plug-in hybrid diesel Plug-in hybrid gasoline Diesel hybrid 100 Gasoline hybrid CNG/LPG 50 Diesel 0 2000 Gasoline 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 More than 90% of light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050 © OECD/IEA 2012 Translating targets into action 8 million sales/year 7 Manufacturers production/sales 6 5 Projection (Estimated from each country's target) Projection (Estimated from each country's target) 4 3 2 1 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2018 2020 2020 Government targets need to be backed by policy action © OECD/IEA 2012 Building Blocks of a Cleaner Future Total energy savings 33 EJ Space heating 22% Other 15% Water heating 12% Services Lighting, 3% Residential Cooling and ventilation, 3% Water heating, 2% Cooking 15% Space heating, 7% Appliances 10% Lighting 6% Cooling and ventilation 5% About 70% of buildings’ potential energy savings between the 4DS and 2DS are in the residential sector © OECD/IEA 2012 Building sector challenges differ Billion households 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2010 OECD 2020 2030 2040 2050 Non OECD 75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050 Heating & Cooling: huge potential Renewable heat Integration with electricity District heating and cooling network Co-generation Surplus heat Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use. Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected. © OECD/IEA 2012 Emissions must be eliminated by 2075 A zero-carbon future looks possible but will be very challenging, even if 2050 targets are met in the 2DS. © OECD/IEA 2012 Clean energy investment pays off Total savings Fuel savings Additional investment Additional investment Power Power Industry With price effect Transport Industry Without price effect Residential Transport Commercial Undiscounted Fuel savings Residential 3% Biomass Coal Commercial 10% Oil - 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40 Gas USD trillion Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return. © OECD/IEA 2012 Clouds on the horizon? 50 45 40 USD billion 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Wind Solar Biomass & Waste Geothermal Small Hydro Marine Biofuels Source: BNEF, 2012 Signs of slowing investment, but numbers should be interpreted with caution © OECD/IEA 2012 For much more, please visit www.iea.org/etp © OECD/IEA 2012