Transcript Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future Ms. Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director International Energy Agency Stavanger, 29 August 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012

Tapping technology’s potential
to secure a clean energy future
Ms. Maria van der Hoeven
Executive Director
International Energy Agency
Stavanger, 29 August 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012
Key messages
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Sustainable energy future is still feasible and
technologies exist to take us there
Despite potential of technologies, progress is too
slow at the moment
A clean energy future requires systemic thinking
and deployment of a variety of technologies
It even makes financial sense to do it!
Government policy is decisive in unlocking the
potential
Energy demand and emissions have
doubled in the past 40 years


From 6000 Mtoe to 12 000 Mtoe
Rapid demand growth outside OECD


CO2 emissions from 14Gt to 30Gt
Since 2005, non-OECD countries
emit more than OECD
Source: IEA statistics
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
2DS
a vision of a sustainable
energy system of reduced
Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
4DS
reflecting pledges by
countries to cut
emissions and boost
energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
6DS
where the world is now
heading with potentially
devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
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Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
Cleaner coal power
Nuclear power
Renewable power
CCS in power
CCS in industry
Industry
Buildings
Progress is too slow in
almost all technology areas
Significant action is required
to get back on track
Fuel economy
Electric vehicles
Biofuels for transport
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Energy RD&D has slipped in priority
12%
25
6%
10
4%
5
4
3
2
2%
1
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Energy efficiency
Fossil fuels
Renewable energy
Nuclear
Hydrogen and fuel cells
Other power and storage technologies
Other cross cutting technologies/research
Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
South Africa
1986
Russia
1982
Mexico
1978
India
1974
China
0
0%
0
Brazil
USD billion
15
2008 non-IEA country
spending
USD billion
8%
Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
10%
20
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A smart, sustainable energy system
Co-generation
Renewable energy resources
Centralised fuel production,
power and storage
Distributed
energy resources
Smart energy
system control
H2 vehicle
Surplus heat
EV
A sustainable energy system is a smarter,
more unified and integrated energy system
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Renewables need to dominate EU electricity
5 000
100%
4 500
90%
4 000
80%
3 500
70%
2 500
2 000
13%
17%
Other
renewables
Other
renewables
Other
renewables
10%
Wind
Wind
Wind
21%
Generation share
TWh
3 000
4%
4%
28%
28%
7%
60%
Solar
Solar
Solar
9%
50%
40%
1 500
30%
1 000
20%
500
10%
0
0%
22%
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
13%
Nuclear
Nuclear
Nuclear
1%
53%
23%
Fossil
w CCS
Fossil
w CCS
Fossil w CCS
27%
7%
2%
4DS
2009
2009
10%
2009
Fossil
w/ow/o
CCS CCS
Fossil
Fossil w/o CCS
4DS
2DS 2DS
2050
2050 2050
Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with
wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in the mix.
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Two very different profiles for power
generation


Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the
2DS and the 4DS.
From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly.
10 000
10 000
TWh
4DS
2DS
7 500
7 500
5 000
5 000
2 500
2 500
0
2009
2020
2030
OECD
2040
2050
0
2009
2020
2030
2040
2050
Other
non-OECD
Non-OECD
Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to
meet the CO2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario.
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Natural gas is not a panacea
The global average CO2 intensity from power generation falls below
the carbon intensity of CCGTs in 2025 in the 2DS; CCS can play a role
in reducing emissions from gas
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GtCO2
Industry must become more efficient
12
6DS
10
Other industries
8
6
Chemicals and
petrochemicals
Aluminium
4
Pulp and paper
2
Iron and steel
0
2010
Cement
2020
2030
2040
2050
Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency
can be achieved through best available technologies.
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CCS is applied in power and industry
Note: Capture rates shown in MtCO2/year
The majority of CO2 is captured from power generation globally, but in some regions CO2 captured from
industrial applications dominates
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Clean energy investment pays off
USD trillion
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy
can generate 3 dollars in return.
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Recommendations to Governments
1. Create an investment climate of confidence in
clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy
efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research,
development and demonstration (RD&D)
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For much more, please visit
www.iea.org/etp
© OECD/IEA 2012