Transcript European Timber Markets: Developments and Challenges inEd Pepke, Ph.D. Forest Products Marketing Specialist Food and Agricultural Organization & UN Economic Commission for Europe Geneva, Switzerland Diversity.

European Timber Markets:
Developments and Challenges in
2004
Ed Pepke, Ph.D.
Forest Products Marketing Specialist
Food and Agricultural Organization &
UN Economic Commission for Europe
Geneva, Switzerland
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UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
Timber Committee
European
Forestry
Commission
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Sources
• UNECE/FAO TIMBER database on forest
products
• UNECE/FAO Temperate & Boreal Forest
Resources Assessment 2000
• FAOSTAT Forestry Database website
• UNECE/FAO Timber Bulletin “Forest products
annual market review, 2003-2004
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FPAMR vs. ITTO’s market review
• Based on Joint UNECE/FAO/ITTO/Eurostat
questionnaire
• Shared information, e.g. tropical timber
chapter by ITTO
• Other FPAMR chapters
– Policies influencing forest products markets
– Primary product sectors
– Value-added wood products
– Certified forest products
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Subjects of presentation
• EU enlargement and its effects
– Forest products markets
– Tropical timber markets in Europe
– Forest resources
• Findings from FPAMR 2004
• Key issues in forest products markets and
government policies
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EU Enlargement
EU15 + new EU10 = EU25
What effect on forest
products markets?
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EU 15
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EU 25
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Future EU 29
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EU enlargement in general
• Population
– 20% increase to 454 million
• Gross domestic product (GDP)
– Almost 5% increase to €9,613 billion
• Intra EU25 trade accounts for two thirds of
total trade of EU25
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Currencies in the “single” market
14 currencies all together in EU !
Index 1/2000 = 100
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
2000
2001
EURO
2002
CHF
2003
PLZ
SKR
2004
GBP
Source: International Monetary Fund, 2004
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EU 15 to EU 25:
Effects on forest products markets
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Annual per capita consumption
(m3 or m.t./person/year)
Product
Sawnwood
EU 15 EU 10
0.23
0.15
Wood-based panels
0.12
0.11
Paper and paperboard
0.20
0.08
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Changes to forest products trade
• Most changes made prior to 2004 in
preparation for accession
• 80% of forest products exports already to EU
(90% in Baltic countries)
• Higher speed of transport through customs =
lower cost
• Reduced market barriers, including taxes,
ending duties
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Changes to forest products trade
•
•
•
•
•
Increased market info
Consistent trade regulations
Consistent quality standards
Freer flow of labour
EU economic development funding available
Diversity in the Single Market – Challenges for Tropical Timber in Europe
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Roundwood (logs)
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Total consumption of roundwood
350 000
300 000
1,000 m3
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
1999
2000
2001
EU 15
2002
2003
EU 10
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Consumption of tropical roundwood
3 000
1,000 m3
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
1999
2000
2001
EU 15
2002
2003
EU 10
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Consumption of hardwood
roundwood (EU 25)
114 000
112 000
1,000 m3
110 000
108 000
106 000
104 000
102 000
100 000
98 000
1999
2000
2001
2002
Temperate Tropical
2003
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Imports of tropical roundwood
3 000
1,000 m3
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
1999
2000
2001
EU 15
2002
2003
EU 10
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Sawnwood (lumber)
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Imports of tropical sawnwood (m3)
2 500
1,000 m3
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
1999
2000
2001
EU 15
2002
2003
EU 10
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Imports of tropical sawnwood ($)
1 400 000
1,000 US$
1 200 000
1 000 000
800 000
600 000
400 000
200 000
0
1999
2000
2001
EU 15
2002
2003
EU 10
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Imports of tropical sawnwood:
volume vs. value (EU 25)
9000
3 600 000
3 500 000
3 400 000
8600
3 300 000
Value, $
Volume, m3
8800
8400
3 200 000
3 100 000
8200
3 000 000
8000
2 900 000
7800
2 800 000
1999
2000
2001
Volume
2002
2003
Value
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Million m3
Imports of temperate vs.
tropical sawn hardwood
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
19
91
19
90
19
89
19
Temperate
Tropical
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Consumption of sawn hardwood
16 000
14 000
1,000 m3
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
1999
2000
2001
EU 15
2002
2003
EU 10
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Consumption of tropical sawnwood
2 500
1000 m3
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
1999
2000
2001
EU 15
2002
2003
EU 10
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1,000 m3
Sawnwood consumption comparison
100 000
90 000
80 000
70 000
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
1999
Tropical
2000
2001
Temperate
2002
2003
Softwood
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Imports of sawn hardwood
9 000
8 000
1,000 m3
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
1999
2000
2001
EU 15
2002
2003
EU 10
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Exports of sawn hardwood
3 500
3 000
1,000 m3
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
1999
2000
2001
EU 15
2002
2003
EU 10
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Production of sawn hardwood
9 000
8 000
1,000 m3
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
1999
2000
2001
EU 15
2002
2003
EU 10
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Beech sawnwood prices
125
Index 1995 = 100
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
1999
2000
2001
Germany
2002
2003
2004
France
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1,000 m3
Consumption of sawn softwood vs.
sawn hardwood (EU 25)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
0
1999
2000
2001
Softwood
2002
2003
Hardwood
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Imports of sawn softwood
40 000
35 000
1,000 m3
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
1999
2000
2001
EU 15
2002
2003
EU 10
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Exports of sawn softwood
40 000
35 000
1,000 m3
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
1999
2000
2001
EU 15
2002
2003
EU 10
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Plywood
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Imports of plywood
6 000
1,000 m3
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
1999
2000
2001
EU 15
2002
2003
EU 10
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Imports of tropical plywood
1400
1,000 m3
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1999
2000
2001
EU 15
2002
2003
EU 10
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Challenges for exporters to the EU
• CE marking for plywood, soon other products
• Labeling, including certification
• Health and safety standards
– Phytosanitary standards
• Quality/grade specifications
• Packaging specifications
• Species
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Consumption of plywood
6 000
1,000 m3
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
1999
2000
2001
EU 15
2002
2003
EU 10
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Production of plywood
6 000
1,000 m3
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
1999
2000
2001
EU 15
2002
2003
EU 10
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EU 15 to EU 25
- the effect on forest resources
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Forest area
100 000
90 000
80 000
1,000 ha
70 000
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
EU 15
EU 10
“Forest Available for Wood Supply”
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Softwood vs. hardwood forests
90 000
80 000
1,000 ha
70 000
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
EU 15
Softwood
EU10
Hardwood
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Forest resources in Europe
• Only 60% of wood grown is harvested
• Forest volume increases ~2 million m3 daily
• Forestland increases by 500,000 hectares
per year
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State of Europe’s Forests
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Resources increasing
Forest health and vitality are critical
Productive functions maintained
Biodiversity is a focus
Plantations are only 3%
Protective forests are 12%
Socio-economic functions important
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Forest resources in Russia
• Only 16% of wood grown is harvested
• Forest volume increases ~3 million m3 daily
• Forest area 1990 to 2000: no significant
change
Sources: State of the World’s Forests 2003;
Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000;
Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
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Forest resources: growing stock
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
Million m3
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Europe (41)
Growing Stock
North
America
Net Annual Increment
CIS
Fellings
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000.
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Million m3
Forest resources: NAI vs. fellings
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Europe (41)
N. America
Net Annual Increment
CIS
Fellings
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000.
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Forest resources: NAI vs. fellings
Fellings as
% of NAI
Europe-41
60%
EU-15
64%
Nordic countries
72%
Baltic countries
50%
Central &
eastern Europe
56%
Russia
16%
North America
80%
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000.
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Forest resources summary
•
•
•
•
•
Removals considerably below growth
Wide variance in utilization rates of NAI
Growing stock increasing in Europe
Oversupply compared to demand for wood
Increasing alternative demands on forests
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Findings of FPAMR
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Policies affecting UNECE region
forest products markets
• Illegal logging
– Dominates political discussions
– EU regulation to control imports of
illegally-sourced timber in preparation
• Wood energy
– Policies expanding biofuel trade
– Competition for raw materials
• Tariffs, duties and regulations
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Policies affecting UNECE region forest
products markets
• Promotion of wood
– EU-wide promotion on enhanced use of
wood
– Other regional campaigns successful
• Need to support research and development
– Research has declined markedly
– Development composite products
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Policies affecting UNECE region
forest products markets
• Forest certification programs expanded
worldwide
– government purchasing programs
– major wood buying groups and retailers
in the UNECE region
• Global carbon trade market growing rapidly
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European construction sector
development
2.5
2
% change
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
2002
2003
2004f
2005f
New residential
Residential renovation and modernization
New non-residential
Non-residential renovation and modernization
Source: Euroconstruct, 2004
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Central and eastern European
construction sector developments
% change
12
9
6
3
0
-3
-6
-9
-12
2002
2003
2004f
2005f
New residential
Residential renovation and modernization
New non-residential
Non-residential renovation and modernization
Source: Euroconstruct, 2004
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Wood raw materials (logs & chips)
• Record roundwood production in UNECE
region
• Fastest trade development: exports from
central and eastern Europe
• Russian exports = 30% harvest
• Log prices decreasing with higher supply
• Wood energy promotion by governments
creating new markets
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Sawn softwood
• Globalization of markets continues
• High demand in USA. Increasing imports from
Europe and elsewhere
• Record European exports to Japan
• Eastern Europe and Russia redefining global
marketplace
• China’s demand increasingly affecting UNECE
region
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Sawn hardwood
• Increasing central and eastern European
(CEEC) demand for further processing
• Consumption increasing in UNECE region:
up 9% in western Europe in 2003
• Imports increasing, primarily within region
• Record hardwood flooring demand
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Sawn hardwood
• Growing CEEC production, trade and
consumption
• CIS countries (Ukraine, Russia) exporting
hardwood to Asian and European valueadded manufacturers
• Interest in darker, tropical species for flooring
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Hardwood sawlog prices
Index 1/1999 = 100
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
1999
2000
US South oak
2001
2002
Germany oak
2003
Germany beech
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Panels
• European particleboard, MDF and OSB
industries back on track
• European plywood industry records
positive results, but affected by foreign
competition
• CEEC and CIS region enjoy clearly higher
growth rates and increased investments
• Record prices in USA stimulate exports
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Certification and certified forest
products
• 170 million hectares worldwide
• 90% in UNECE region
• Public procurement policies are newest
driving force for certification
• Problems
– Lack of mutual recognition
– Lack of demand from final consumers
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Certified forest area distribution
6%
3% 2% 2%
47%
40%
North America
Oceania
Other Europe and CIS
EU/EFTA
Latin America
Africa
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Value-added wood products
• 10% growth in trade in 2002
• Continued growth in 2003 and 2004
• China’s export power
– The US duties on wooden bedroom
furniture imported from China
• Furniture most dynamic sector
• Outdoor garden furniture from tropical woods
• Engineered wood products: bright future
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World imports of wooden furniture
14000
12000
Billion $
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1998
1999
Furniture parts
Bedroom & kitchen furniture
2000
2001
2002
Other wooden furniture
Seats
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Conclusions
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Wood supply and demand:
Are we growing too much wood?
No.
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We are not growing sustainable
forest products markets as fast as
forests.
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Solution:
We must grow wood markets
through long-term, international
cooperation (organizations, industry
trade associations, Governments and
NGOs).
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International wood promotion
programs
• UNECE/FAO Forest Communicators
Network
• Wood Promotion Council in North America
• Roadmap 2010 in Europe
• National and regional programs, e.g.
Nordic Timber Council (NTC)
Diversity in the Single Market – Challenges for Tropical Timber in Europe
ITTO Market Discussions, 22 July 2004, Interlaken, Switzerland
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Summary
• The single EU market is diverse
• New EU10 will not increase markets dramatically in
the near future
• Tropical timber shares some challenges with
temperate timber
– Increasing wood’s market share
– Educating consumers about SFM, renewablility,
recyclability
– Gaining confidence in wood
• Let’s work together to “grow” the markets!
Diversity in the Single Market – Challenges for Tropical Timber in Europe
ITTO Market Discussions, 22 July 2004, Interlaken, Switzerland
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Questions and discussion
Diversity in the Single Market – Challenges for Tropical Timber in Europe
ITTO Market Discussions, 22 July 2004, Interlaken, Switzerland
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Contact information
Ed Pepke
Forest Products Marketing Specialist
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
448 Palais des Nations
CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
Telephone +41 22 917 2872
Fax +41 22 917 0041
[email protected]
www.unece.org/trade/timber
Diversity in the Single Market – Challenges for Tropical Timber in Europe
ITTO Market Discussions, 22 July 2004, Interlaken, Switzerland
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Presentation prepared with
Ulla Kyttälä and Eliisa Ranta
Forest Products Marketing Assistants
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
Palais des Nations
CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
[email protected]
[email protected]
www.unece.org/trade/timber
Diversity in the Single Market – Challenges for Tropical Timber in Europe
ITTO Market Discussions, 22 July 2004, Interlaken, Switzerland
Photo: APA
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