Transcript THE INTERNATIONAL TROPICAL TIMBER ORGANIZATION Forest Products Markets in the New Millenium: Tropical Hardwoods ECE Timber Committee Market Discussions 10 October 2000 S.

THE INTERNATIONAL TROPICAL TIMBER ORGANIZATION
Forest Products Markets in the
New Millenium:
Tropical Hardwoods
ECE Timber Committee Market Discussions
10 October 2000
S. Johnson, ITTO Secretariat
© ITTO 2000
Trends in ECE imports
• Logs and sawnwood more or less stable,
but main markets shifting (northern
Europe down, southern Europe up)
• Plywood stable or increasing in most
markets
• SPWP from tropical countries increasing
in all markets
ECE Tropical Log Imports
3000
2783
TOTAL
2575
2417
2500
2348
Volume, 1000 m
3
2062
2067
2000
Others
U.S.A.
EU
1500
2764
2562
1000
2041
2052
1996
1997
2323
2400
1999
2000
500
0
1995
1998
ECE Tropical Sawnwood Imports
3500
TOTAL
2954
3000
2697
Volume, 1000 m3
2500
355
2347
237
2165
2000
2699
357
2796
360
323
322
Others
U.S.A.
EU
1500
2563
2436
1000
1811
2306
2400
1999
2000
1992
500
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
ECE Tropical Veneer Imports
450
400
385
409
70
407
TOTAL
53
329
350
322
Volume, 1000 m
3
313
300
62
61
65
250
200
Others
U.S.A.
EU
366
332
349
150
245
262
250
1998
1999
2000
100
50
0
1995
1996
1997
ECE Tropical Plywood Imports
3500
TOTAL
3000
2891
2916
3199
3245
3245
1559
1680
1700
2883
Volume, 1000 m
3
2500
2000
1320
1459
1396
1311
1347
1996
1997
Others
U.S.A.
EU
1500
1000
1439
1484
1397
1375
1998
1999
2000
500
0
1995
Tropical Timber Trade, US$billions
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Primary
Secondary
(dashed line = estimate)
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Main Asian Markets
• Japan housing starts stagnant at about
1.2 million last 3 years, total slightly up in
first 8 months 2000 but wood houses
down
• HQAL affecting market
• Logs imports down about 8% this year,
sawn up about 5%, ply stable
• China housing starts Jan-May up 40% on
1999, state bank mortgages +145% in 99,
at least +100% in 2000
Supply situation
• Africa - Cameroon log ban, log supply
shifting to Congo, CAR, Liberia, Gabon (?)
• ITTO assisting harmonizing of C&I, setting
up of PAFC
Supply situation
• Asia - weakness of Euro hurting exporters
to ECE
• Sabah ban on Selangan Batu exports
• Sabah processing capacity about 7 times
long term sustainable cut
• Malay log exports up 25% in 99
• lots of (unsustainable?/illegal?) logs going
from Indonesia-Malaysia-China
• Indonesia ply production likely to fall 0.51.0 million m3 this year due to provincial
unrest, log shortage
Supply situation
• Latin America - Brazil monitoring
mahogany exports more closely, all
exports must be harvested as per
management plan
• Peru banned all exports of mahogany and
cedar temporarily, situation unclear
Issues facing ITTO: Certification
• Auditing guidelines to be developed to
complement ITTO C&I, will assist
countries to implement
• Assisting Malaysia and Indonesia with
NTCC and LEI schemes, Fiji and Ghana
projects also funded
• Tropical countries not well served by
currently available international
certification schemes
Breakdown of FSC Certified Forests
ALL
TROPICAL
(17.7 m ha)
(2.1 m ha)
73%
10%
12%
11%
1%
1%
4%
Americas
Asia/Oceania/S.Africa
Europe
Africa
Asia-Pacific
Latin America/Caribbean
Map of FSC Certified Forests
Tropical Forest Certification Issues
•costs of attaining SFM and carrying out
certification higher than in non-tropical forests
•ODA, FDI and market access to help achieve
tropical SFM still lacking
•“green premium” (and market niche(s)) for certified
timber small compared to cost of SFM/certification
•certification of products arising from forest
conversion/plantation establishment
•certification of substitutes/life cycle analysis
•increasing trend towards SPWP
Issues facing ITTO: Illegal Logging
• ITTO currently in negotiations with
Indonesia, Malaysia and several African
countries to address
• Need to distinguish between coordinated
illegal felling for export, for domestic mills
and for subsistence, different strategies
needed for each
THE INTERNATIONAL TROPICAL TIMBER ORGANIZATION
www.itto.or.jp