Transcript Team Software Project (TSP) July 24, 2007 Cycle 2 Requirements, Standards & Death Marches 7/24/2007 SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt.

Team Software Project (TSP)
July 24, 2007
Cycle 2 Requirements,
Standards
&
Death Marches
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Due today
Cycle 2 Requirements:
Cycle 2 Requirements
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Remaining Lectures Plan/Discussion
July 24 – Cycle 2 Requirements Complete
Cycle 2 Requirements
Death March Projects continued
Process topics – Configuration Management -
July 31 – Cycle 2 Implementation Complete
System Test Plan Baselined
Cycle 2 Design & Implementation
Process topics – CMMI Details
August 7 – Cycle 2 Test Complete
Cycle 2 Test Complete
Other topics TBD
August 14 - Course Review
Cycle 2 Post-Mortem Complete
Course Review
Final
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Death March Projects
From Death March by Edward Yourdon
Death March
Odds of a software project delivering on its committed schedule, budget &
capabilities is extremely poor
Average Project
6-12 months behind schedule
50-100% over budget
But Why?
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How Do We Get Here?
Start:
High risk factors:
• Optimism
• Wishful thinking
Unrealistic schedule & budget
Realistic plan, but then it goes downhill
e.g. user adds requirements
Results:
Overtime
Wasted weekends
Emotional & physical burnout before the end
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Key Takeaway
Confronted with joining a Death March project,
Recognize & understand your own motivations, so
you can make a rational decision to join the team or look elsewhere for
your next job.
You always have options!
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Death March Defined
Project where an unbiased objective risk assessment (including technical,
interpersonal & legal risks) determines the likelihood of failure at
greater than 50%.
Death March projects are the norm, not the exception!
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Common Root Causes
Compressed schedule (e.g. < ½ time estimated by a rational process)
½ Staff of what a comparable project typically requires
½ Budget & associated resources
Twice the functionality, feature & performance requirements given
schedule, staff & budget constraints
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Types of Death March Projects
Size
Small
< 10 people
3-6 months
Most common & greatest chance of success
How: small, tight knit, motivated group can totally sacrifice their personal lives, provided …
They know the hardships (nights & weekends) will end in a few months
Medium
20-30 people
1-2 years
Little chance of success
Large
100-300 people
3-5 years
No chance of success
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Reasons
Politics … ugly politics!
Naïve promises
Hysterical Optimism
e.g. Everyone in organization desperately wants to believe that a complex project, never
before completed in < 3 years, can somehow be finished in 9 months.
Naïve optimism of youth
No problem, we can do it in a weekend!
Start-up mentality of fledgling, entrepreneurial companies
Intense competition
Markets
Technologies
Government regulations
Unexpected &/or unplanned crises
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Questions?
Why would anyone in his/her right mind agree to work on a death march
project?
If a colleague of yours was to take on the task of managing a death march
project, what is the one thing you would advise him/her to do?
To not do?
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Reasons for signing up
High Risk / High Reward (e.g. Microsoft example)
“Mt Everest” syndrome
For the challenge!
Noble failures may promise glory even if not successful (e.g. Go)
But watch for … pre-determined failures and “so what” value props
Unemployment
Pre-requisite of promotion or future advancement
Bankruptcy
Revenge!
Escape normal company bureaucracy (e.g. skunkworks, Apple’s Mac)*
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Politics
The often internally conflicting interrelationships among people in a society.
Intrigue or maneuvering within a political unit or group in order to gain
control.
Source: The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition
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Politics
Politics are normal
Death March politics tend to be more intensive & unhealthy
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Identifying Stakeholders
Why?
Need to know friend from foe
Owner (potential friend)
Customer
Shareholders
Stakeholders
Champions
Probably more important to project’s success than any technology or methodology
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Happiness
Death March Project Types
Kamikaze
Mission
Impossible
Suicide
Ugly
Success Probability
Happiness Gauge
Would you do this again?
Mission Impossible
High team morale, thrive on challenge, dream of rewards of success
Kamikaze
Go type project, happiness derived from technology or team dynamics
Ugly
Low team morale, heavy duty politics
Suicide
Everyone doomed, everyone miserable
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Negotiations
Negotiations at start of projects tend to be irrational
Why?
Negotiations at 1-2 months prior to deadline tend to be more rational
Customer realizes original deadline, budget & functionality won’t be achieved
But, it’s too late for some project members (e.g. project leader)
“You need to understand your own management’s negotiating stance, if they
love to play roll over, you have to keep them well away from the project.”
Doug Scott
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Mitigation Tactics
Commercial Estimation Tools
50+ available (e.g. SLIM, Checkpoint, Estimacs)
Best estimates, +/- 10%, but Death March projects typically off by 1000%!
Systems Dynamics Models
Prediction of impact from constraint changes
e.g. Overtime: initially output increases, then errors increase & output decreases
Prototyping & Timeboxing
Acceptable Trade-offs
Pose alternatives
80/20 rule
“everybody wants things good, wants them fast & wants them cheap … pick two”
Balancing Time, Resources, Capability
10% change in one variable, change another variable 10%
What happens if greater than 10% change?
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Negotiation Games
Negotiation is a game
Safety factor in most projects is?
But, for Death March projects …
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Basic Negotiation Games
Doubling & add some
Bosses know this one, so they halve it.
But, actually sound logic behind this one
Reverse Doubling
Client / customer gets one estimate
Development team another
Price is Right? (or Guess the # I’m thinking of)
Benefits for boss?
Double Dummy Spit
The X Plus Game
Spanish Inquisition
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Advanced Negotiation Games
Low Bid / What are they prepared to pay
Gotcha!
Smoke & Mirrors / Blinding with science (GIGO rule)
False Precision
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Tactics
Not playing along is risky, but negotiation games can be countered
First, recognize the game
e.g. Price is Right, response “what do you think is a good estimate”
Delay
Use data, sound estimation practices & comparable examples
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You are leading a Death March Project
How do you survive?
People
Choose your own team (if possible)
Superstars?
Well honed Mission Impossible team
Well prepared mere mortals
Pot luck
Prepare for some overtime
Preferably short sprints
Reward the team well if project succeeds
Focus on building a loyal, cohesive & cooperative team
Commitment
Motivation
Rewards
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Teams
Open & honest Communication
Assume no secrets & you won’t get burned
Share everything you can
For stuff you can’t share, say so!
Remember the Peopleware lessons
You need every productivity improving factor you can get
Overall,
Talented people,
Cohesive teams &
Decent working conditions give you the greatest chance of success
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Death March Approaches
Key:
You can’t do everything, so …
Don’t put together a plan or processes that assume you can
(e.g. waterfall)
Solution:
Triage!
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Requirements Management
Ultimately a crisis will occur & reality will hit
Several scenarios could occur:
Fire project manager
Renegotiate schedule
Renegotiate functionality (at which point most WIP gets thrown away)
Alternatively, plan at start
80/20 Rule
Key is to choose the “right” 20%
Approach:
Prioritize (subtly) requirements into must do, should do, could do
At start, identify what will ultimately be thrown away & avoid spending energy on those
items
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Death March Processes
Back to basics
Manage requirements
Initial baseline
Changes – high threshold & very visible
Don’t try out new tools & processes
Agree on & formalize some important processes, then follow them
e.g. source code control, change management, requirements management
Leave other processes ad hoc
Pay careful attention to risk management
e.g. Top 10 list
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