Transcript Where is the Love? Hong Kong’s search for a new direction under the next Chief Executive 14 February 2012

Where is the Love?
Hong Kong’s search for a new direction under the next Chief Executive
14 February 2012
1 Center, 2 Surveys
1. Centering on the election context &
challenges facing Chief Executive candidates
A. Random sample of the General Public
B. Random sample of Functional Constituency
Registered Voters
B. Conducted first 2 weeks of January
Identity
Feelings on China’s National Day
The National Context of the Chief Executive Election
T:38 How does the celebration of 1st
October National Day make you feel?
T:58 Feelings by Income/Class
(GP/FC no significant difference)
Do you support/oppose the school children to
sing National Anthem and have flag raising every
day?
From the October 2011 NDI survey
identity
How would you describe yourself ?
A Fundamental Shift?
T:60 Are you currently satisfied/dissatisfied with
the performance of the Chinese Gov in ruling
China? (GenPub)
T:64 Proportion of Identities by
Feelings on 1 Oct
T:68 Which do you consider most important to
you personally to see protected & promoted?
T:69 Most important HK & China
identity by Feelings on 1 Oct (GP)
T:71 Most important HK &
China id by ID choices (GP)
satisfaction
The Governance Context of Hong Kong’s Chief
Executive Election
III/T:1 Are you currently satisfied/dissatisfied
with performance of PRC Gov dealing with
HKSAR affairs?
III/T:7 Satisfaction with performance of SAR
Government dealing with PRC Government
FC: 51%Diss/43%Satisfied
III/T:12 Satisfaction with performance
of PRC Gov in ruling China
FC: 53%Diss/38%Satisfied
III/T:17 Satisfaction with
performance of HKSAR Gov
FC: 60%Diss/37%Satisfied
Politics
The Local Political Context of Hong Kong’s Chief
Executive Election
IV/T:1 Of the political parties in Legco, which
party if any do you feel represents or protects
your interests best?
IV/T:2 Which party best represents,
Recoded and Comparative
Pro-Establishment: DAB, FTU, LP, NPP
Pro-Democracy: DP, CivP
Pro-Labour: LSD, PP, CTU
The voters & the public
The FC voters
Work Sector
EDucation
Income
Participation previous 6 months
IV/T:16 Vote for CE by Which
party represents best
General Public
FC Voters
IV/T:19 If no pro-democracy candidate,
then who by Which party represents best
General Public
FC Voters
Issues
The Public Opinion Context of the Chief Executive Election
V/T:3 In your view, what is most urgent issue
that should be addressed by candidates?
Issue
Reclassifications
• Unemployment, social welfare cuts, cross-border
crime, influx of immigrants and wages and working
hours are reclassified as socio-economic stress issues.
• Systemic reform includes healthcare reform,
educational reform, constitutional reform and
environmental protection—all of which call for
change.
• The wealth gap, housing and economic growth and
other categories are not reclassified
Age & FC/GP
General Public
FC Voters
V/T:9&10 Which candidate would vote for by
Most urgent issues candidates should address
FC Voters
General Public
Systemic issues
Fairness, Trust, Competence, Problem-solving
Fairness
VI/T:1 Do you think the government currently
makes policies in general fairly, helping or hurting
all parties equally, or unfairly, favoring the interests
of some over others?
VI/T:4 Fairness of policy making by Most
urgent issues candidates should address (GP)
VI/T:6 Fairness of policy making by Which
candidate would you vote for (GP)
Those who would vote for Tang say by larger margins policy making is fair
trust
VI/T:8 Who of the Chief Executive candidates do
you trust most to handle relations with:
Competence
VI/T:9 Which of the Chief Executive candidates
do you think would do the best job of:
VI/T:19 Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with
Gov’s performance on this problem? (GP)
Highest dissatisfaction since 2003
VI/T:20 Which CE candidate do you think would do the best
job to improve gov’s performance on your problem of greatest
personal concern?
Constitutional
REform
The Issue that Dare Not Speak its Name
VII/T:6 Would you support/oppose the following: Change the
CE nominating process to a popular primary system with the
top 2 candidates competing in the direct election?
VII/T:8 Would you support or oppose the following:
Reform FCs by eliminating corporate voting and
equalizing, as much as possible, the number of voters in
each constituency?
Table 10 Would you support or oppose the
following: Abolish Functional Constituencies
completely?
601 General Public interviewees/246 Functional Constituency voters by random
telephone survey
Information of previous surveys on http://www.hktp.org
Research conducted by the Hong Kong Transition Project
funded by a grant from CDI http://www.cdiorg.hk
Hong Kong
Transition Project
• Established in 1988, headquartered at HKBU
• Multi-disciplinary, multi-national, multi-institutional study on the
transition from colonial to citizen rule
• Academic, independent, pro-good governance
• Funded by competitive research grants from governments,
commissioned research from Non-governmental organizations.
Two surveys commissioned annually by CDI
• Members with partisan commitments do not participate in
research in which they may have an interest nor see reports before
public release. The P.I. is NOT a member of any party in Hong
Kong but is an elected representative of the Higher Education
sub-sector of the Chief Executive Election Committee, as part of
the method of “participatory observation”