The Wider Context of Police Reform In Scotland

Mark McAteer Improvement Service

Funding Pressures: Where We Are & Where We Are Going • 12% real reduction in spend to 2013/14 • Substantial demand growth: demography, welfare reform, etc.

• High level of ‘failure’ demand: circa 40% • Funding gap: £1.7 billion 2013/14; £2.8 billion 2016/17

Scottish Block Finance & Demand 2009/10 – 2016/17 (% real terms) 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 2 0 4 -6 6 8 1 0 1 2 -9 .9

-1 1 .8

-1 0 -9 -2 0 10/ 11 11/ 12 12/ 13 13/ 14 14/ 15 15/ 16 16/ 17 1 4 -9 PS Sp end Demand

•

The Scottish Election Results: ‘Game Changers’

Maintaining universal services & entitlements: FPC; travel; prescriptions etc (90% of voters) • ‘Multi-year council tax freeze (90%+ of voters) • No political obstacle to L.I.T (50% of voters) • Re-opening of Scotland Bill: fiscal autonomy (46% of voters but majority government) • Reform Police, Fire, Health & Social Care

Government’s Position

• Clear prioritisation of NHS: inflation & demand growth means that cash protection alone will not work • Stimulating investment & growth: capital acceleration • The ‘covenant with the workforce’: no compulsory redundancy (Munchhausen's redundancy by proxy) • Will preserve 32 council structure but role & functions could be altered

The Fundamental Issue: Disparity of Outcomes

Christie Commission

• Key findings: i.

ii.

Need for whole system focus on outcomes Acceptance of demand and ‘failure’ demand as key issue iii. Strengthening and deepening partnership: within and between sectors iv.

‘Localisation’ and ‘integration’ as route to reform; common public sector duty v. Co-production: community capacity building

• • • • • • • • • •

Christie: Reform Should …

Support achievement of outcomes Be affordable & sustainable within existing budgets Strengthen accountability through democratically elected reps Build services around people & communities needs Empower front line staff Support the local integration of service provision Encourage prevention; tackle inequalities; promote equality Improve transparency over plans; spending; performance Streamline public sector landscape Consistent with & support wider PS reform & improvement

•

So If We Are Serious About Reform

Complex issues

v

the lure of a simplistic fix • Structural change - where it adds value (reduce costs against outcomes); enhance democratic accountability • Getting accurate costs & benefits on structural reform options • Getting partnership resource planning & deployment against outcomes right across & within communities • Learn from others - international comparators; co production • Arrive at conclusions don’t start with them