Beyond Moore’s Law (and the web): What’s next? Nets Everywhere http://research.microsoft.com/~gbell/pubs.htm Gordon Bell Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Corporation Copyright Gordon Bell.
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Beyond Moore’s Law (and the web): What’s next? Nets Everywhere http://research.microsoft.com/~gbell/pubs.htm Gordon Bell Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Corporation Copyright Gordon Bell Outline… pervasive computing from in body to world scale Technology basis On, in, and around body… Mobility: essential for people, phone build out Storing everything you’ve ever… Home, personal, and media stores Scalable systems: what is central vs personal? .net: what does it mean? – Ease of building reliable, scalable, secure, transaction & streaming apps – .bCentral… creating on-line presence Copyright Gordon Bell Some ranked, important technology Fortune Bluetooth Voice control of xx XML Peer-to-peer as in Napster or Gnutella Network Computing 802.11b Bluetooth Broadband Directory Services Voice over IP IPv6 Wave Div. Multiplex SAN & Fiber Chan. ASP Copyright Gordon Bell QOS Technologies Copyright Gordon Bell Moore’s Law Performance/Price doubles every 18 months 100x per decade Progress in next 18 months = ALL previous progress – – New storage = sum of all past storage New processing = sum of past processing. E. coli double ever 20 minutes! 15 years ago Copyright Gordon Bell Desktop-desktop @ 1 gbps http://research. microsoft.com/ ~gray/papers/ Win2K_1Gbps.doc Copyright Gordon Bell 500 mips System On A Chip for 10$ 486 now 7$ 233 MHz ARM for 10$ system on a chip http://www.cirrus.com/news/products99/news-product14.html AMD/Celeron 266 ~ 30$ In 5 years, today’s leading edge will be – – – – System on chip (cpu, cache, mem ctlr, multiple IO) Low cost Low-power Have integrated IO High end is 5 BIPS cpus Copyright Gordon Bell Ubiquitous 10 GBps SANs in 5 years 1Gbps Ethernet are reality now. – Also FiberChannel ,MyriNet, GigaNet, ServerNet,, ATM,… 10 Gbps x4 WDM deployed now (OC192)1 GBps – 3 Tbps WDM working in lab In 5 years, expect 10x, progress is astonishing Gilder’s law: Bandwidth grows 3x/year 120 MBps (1Gbps) http://www.forbes.com/asap/97/0407/090.htm 80 MBps 40 MBps 5 MBps 20 Mbsp Copyright Gordon Bell Bell’s Evolution Of Computer Classes Log price Technology enables two evolutionary paths: 1. constant performance, decreasing cost 2. constant price, increasing performance Mainframes (central) Mini WSs PCs (personals) Handheld… Time Appliances 1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .8 1.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62 Platform evolution: What do they do that’s useful? How do they communicate? Copyright Gordon Bell Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers! Continent World Body Region/ Cars… phys. nets Intranet Home… Campus buildings Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020 Data Telephony Television Or will we just Copyright Gordon Bell have gateways? In a decade we can/will have: more powerful personal computers – – – – adequate networking???? – – processing 10-100x 4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs Competitive wireless networking One chip, networked platforms including light bulbs, cameras everywhere, etc. Several well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) and market share watch, pocket, body implant, home Inevitable, continued cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms and people. IP On Everything Copyright Gordon Bell In body, on body, and around body… how do they evolve? Copyright Gordon Bell Your husband just died, … here’s his black box Copyright Gordon Bell M e d r o n I c Copyright Gordon Bell Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological parameters… 1 GB Copyright Gordon Bell 1976: 6 oz. Watch, manual size > watch size Copyright Gordon Bell Casio GPS Watch Copyright Gordon Bell Steve Mann in Cyberspace MIT c1995 Copyright Gordon Bell Wearable PC c2000 Copyright Gordon Bell Copyright Gordon Bell The mobile network: key to personal use Copyright Gordon Bell Wirelessness and mobility… MMDS & LMDS… very likely non-starters (bits will come via our installed Cu & new fiber) The crowded 2.4 GHz band – – – – – Portable phones: the first, noisy settlers 802.11b (11 Mbit Ethernet LAN) homesteading HomeRF (Intel’s misguided effort at a home LAN) Bluetooth… see the new world. How can 2,000 companies be wrong? 802.11a 50 Mbps LAN (TBD) GSM & CDMA 2&3 G services… – Bets as the next Internet wave Copyright Gordon Bell Sony Personal IT Television •10” Touch screen •802.11b connect •TV •Internet connect •Picture frame •32cm x 20cm •1.5 Kg Copyright Gordon Bell 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0 The evolution of wireless data standards… good news. UMTS 2Mbps EDGE 384kbps Bad news… too many, GPRS 115kbps they lie! HSCSD Circuit data 57.6kbps <9.6kbps Copyright Gordon Bell 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 GPRS Evolution Copyright Gordon Bell Internet Industry (circa 1999) Courtesy of Sheridan Forbes Content Syndication $2B+ ** Content Syndicators Internet Services $170B* Infrastructure $171B* Personal/Employee Data Access Web Hosting Applications & Middleware Copyright Gordon Bell Computers & Operating Layer Software Network Hardware/Protocols The Next Convergence POTS connects to the Web a.k.a. Phone-Web Gateways Web Server PSTN Voice to WEB Bridge The Web DataBase Copyright Gordon Bell Cyber All: using on body computers to record and recall it all Copyright Gordon Bell Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seen Human data-types read text, few pictures /hr 200 K /day (/4yr) 2 -10 M/G /lifetime 60-300 G speech text @120wpm speech @1KBps 43 K 3.6 M 0.5 M/G 40 M/G 15 G 1.2 T stills w/voice @100KB 200 K 2 M/G 60 G video-like 50Kb/s POTS video 200Kb/s VHS-lite 22 M 90 M .25 G/T 1 G/T 25 T 100 T video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1P Copyright Gordon Bell Character of Cyber All Use User Context / Use(t) Personal (ambiance, entertainment, finance, etc.) Professional (work related) Archival Documents, photos and Books, papers, reference documents (historical photo albums, music, video memory-aid, memory-aid and reference) entertainment, medical history, progeny Working Documents, email, (daily use) photos, CDs, video communication, ambiance, entertainment, financial records reference Documents, email content for profession use to communication Copyright Gordon Bell My Mbytes What Archival and working files Scanned files with Tiff and PDF GB books (4 encoded) Photos Digital Photos albums, pictures, slides Mail GB Videos (lectures, 8mm) CDs stored as mp3 16KBps Files Mbytes 4708 729 2897 4665 2027 494 997 158 1430 960 8 236 20 4000 150 8640 Copyright Gordon Bell 12237 19882 Home Networks DSL, etc. input Servers: •Hold & deliver audio, photos, video •Encode TV content Home IP network Computers: •Control, get content C.srv from web, servers Monitors: HDTV C C C Monitor Rec/ AMP HDTV broadcast TV-sets: receive encoded & CATV content TVset CATV Dist Copyright Gordon Bell Tuner CATV Network PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillg Using PCs to drive large screens e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels Gordon Bell Jim Gemmell Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Research Copyright Gordon Bell Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation Copyright Gordon Bell Copyright Gordon Bell When will we have smart rooms? Life-sized displays for interaction - and for being anywhere! Cameras that recognize people Mics and Speech based interface Total surround sound One IP net vs. four (data/a/v/phone) Coupled to all power, data, audio, and video/television networks Interval Research developed a technology to track individuals in stores! Scalable Systems: What is central, distributed (scaled) at a central site, or personal? Scalaing beyond a single facility? Copyright Gordon Bell High Performance Computing Copyright Gordon Bell Bell Prize and Future Peak Tflops (t) 1000 100 10 *IBM Petaflops study target 1 NEC 0.1 CM2 0.01 0.001 XMP NCube 0.0001 1985 1990 1995 2000 Copyright Gordon Bell 2005 2010 Modern scalable switches … also hide a supercomputer (converging switching, computing, and storing?) Scale from <1 to 120 Tbps 1 Gbps ethernet switches scale to 10s of Gbps, scaling upward SP2 scales from 1.2 - 40 tera-ops Copyright Gordon Bell Interesting “cluster” in a cabinet 366 servers per 44U cabinet – – – Single processor 2 - 30 GB/computer (24 TBytes) 2 - 100 Mbps Ethernets ~10x perf*, power, disk, I/O per cabinet ~3x price/perf Network services… Linux based Gordon Bell *42, 2 processors, 84 Ethernet, Copyright 3 TBytes GB with NT, Compaq, & HP cluster Copyright Gordon Bell Top 10 tpc-c Top two Compaq systems are: 1.1 & 1.5X faster than IBM SPs; 1/3 price of IBM 1/5 price of SUN Copyright Gordon Bell Clusters, the Grid, Napster, and Gnutela: going beyond Clusters allow build your own system of any size The Grid has provided facilities, like .NET for computers to communicate, and share resources (programs & data). Seti@home: – – – – – Scan 30% of the Northern sky every 6 mos. Get 50 GB/day 2 million computers 15 tera-flops Copyright Gordon Bell 417 exa-flops delivered over The Grid GRID was/is an exciting concept … – – They can/must work within a community, organization, or project. What binds it? “Necessity is the mother of invention.” Taxonomy… interesting vs necessity – – – – – – – – Cycle scavenging and object evaluation (e.g. seti@home, QCD, factoring) File distribution/sharing aka IP theft (e.g. Napster, Gnutella) Databases &/or programs and experiments (astronomy, genome, NCAR, CERN) Workbenches: web workflow chem, bio… Single, large problem pipeline… e.g. NASA. Exchanges… many sites operating together Transparent web access aka load balancing Copyright Gordon Bell Facilities managed PCs operating as cluster! .Net… shifting from client to server Beyond Browsing: Computer can use the web. Human accessible services can be accessed by other computers on the web. Directory services: e.g. UDDI, Terraserver XML is the core – – – Widely accepted open, naming standard Universal data exchange enable distributed apps Enables agents Supports all types of devices Copyright Gordon Bell A natural evolution Copyright Gordon Bell Copyright Gordon Bell The End Copyright Gordon Bell Things get cheaper: ala Christiansen & Microprocessors Copyright Gordon Bell Was Digital a Victim of Innovator’s Dilemma? Copyright Gordon Bell Exponential change of 10X per decade causes real turmoil! 100000 10000 8 MB 1 MB Timeshared systems 1000 256 KB 100 $K 10 64 KB 16 KB 1 0.1 0.01 1960 Single-user systems 1970 1980 Copyright Gordon Bell 1990 2000 VAX Planning Model 1975: It was very hard to believe it The model was very good – 1978 timeshared $250K VAXen cost about $8K in 1997! – Minicomputers stayed at the 100K-1M price SUN Microsystems exploited this. Costs declined > 20% – users get more memory than predicted Single user systems didn’t come down Gordon Bell as fast, unless you considerCopyright PDAs VAX ran out of address bits! Was Digital a Victim of Innovator’s Dilemma? Absolutely NOT! Otherwise HP, IBM would have failed and SUN wouldn’t have replaced DEC as the minicomputer supplier. IBM AS400 (mini), the most profitable computer every built Miss- understanding the industry Destroying its channels Out of control… billion buck boners Copyright Gordon Bell