Transcript Services and the New Economy: Elements of a Research Agenda William B. Beyers Department of Geography University of Washington Seattle, WA 98195 http://faculty.washington.edu/beyers/research.

Services and the New
Economy: Elements of a
Research Agenda
William B. Beyers
Department of Geography
University of Washington
Seattle, WA 98195
http://faculty.washington.edu/beyers/research
The New Economy
What is the “New Economy”?
• Why is it “new”
• What are the research challenges
for economic geographers?
• What is the role of services in
the New Economy?
•
Defining the New
Economy
• Some key elements:
- increased economy-wide productivity
- a shift in industrial output mix
- a shift in occupational structure
- a shift in places that are most vibrant
• The U.S. ESA efforts at definition and
measurement
A Powerful Impact on
GNP, And Employment
Employment Change United States 1989-1997 - Role
of New Economy Industries
Other
Industries
IT
Producing
Defined
based on
IT Using % of IT
Capital or
level of IT
capital per
worker
New Economy Impact
on GNP
Almost 57% of GNP Growth 1990-1997 was in IT Intensive Industries
IT-Producing
Goods
2% 5%
21%
IT-Using Goods
23%
6%
43%
Non-IT Intensive
Goods
IT-Producing
Services
IT-Using Services
Non-IT Intensive
Services
Composition of IT Using
Industries
IT Using Industries - Composition of New Jobs
United States 1989-1997
Transportation Services
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Consumer Services
Health Services
Producer Services
-1000
0
1000
2000
Jobs in Thousands
3000
4000
Composition of ITProducing Industries
IT Producing Industries - Jobs Change United States 19891997
Communications Services
Communications Equipment
Softw are Distribution
Softw are Manufacturing
Hardw are Distribution
Hardw are Manufacturing
-200
0
200
400
Jobs in Thousands
600
800
Key Research Issues related
to the New Economy
• Geographic Shifts in jobs
• Headquarters Control Shifts
Why?
• The Growing Importance of Small Enterprises
• Occupational Shifts
Where?
• New Forces in Location Decisions
How?
• Interaction bases
•|Trade in the New Economy
• New Patterns of Consumption
Geographic Shifts in Jobs
% Employment Change U.S. 1985-1995
-20.00% -10.00%
0.00%
Total Employment - Metro
Total Employment - Nonmetro
Manufacturing - Metro
Manufacturing - Nonmetro
Producer Services - Metro
Producer Services - Nonmetro
Other Employment - Metro
Other Employment - Nonmetro
10.00% 20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
Realignment of Metropolitan
Areas (1985-1995)
8 Fastest Growing Metro Areas:
8 Most Lagging Metro Areas:
Atlanta
New York
Seattle
Los Angeles
Orlando
Boston
Las Vegas
San Francisco
Portland OR
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Syracuse
Nashville
Chicago
Minneapolis
Cleveland
? Role of New Economy Industries?
Headquarters Shifts
• Old Economy – Concentrated in
New York and Old Economy Cities
New Economy
Of the 100 largest IT Corporations
? Geography of Control
in the world
in the New Economy?
81 are in the U.S.,
54 are in the Western U.S.
44 are in California
Increasing Importance
of Small Enterprises
% Change in Employment U.S. 19901998
? Role of
New Economy
Nonfarm
Proprietors?
proprietors
Urban and
Rural?
Farm Proprietor
Wage & Salary
Employment
0.0%
5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Occupational Perspectives
on Job Creation
1980
c h a n g e 8 0 -2 0 0 0
W h it e C o lla r
B lu e C o lla r
W h it e C o lla r
B lu e C o lla r
O t h e r S e rvic e
S e rvic e W o rk e rs
W o rk e rs
F a rm
F a rm
1980 Distribution of
Occupations by Industry
Executive P/Tech
Sales
Other
Admin/Cler Service
Transport &
Precision Machinery Material
craft/
Operators Handling
Agriculture
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
TCU
Wholesale
Retail
FIRE
PrivateHH
Other Services
Public Administration
Total
1980 Total
11017
16035
6254
20361
11803
12469
10510
0-1% +
1-5% +
5-10% + 10-25% + 25-50% + 50%+
zero - blank
0-1% 1-5% 5-10% 10-25% 25-50% - 50% -
Handers &
Other
Labor
Total
3214
937
6175
21379
6468
3792
16001
5918
1252
27419
5245
97800
3504
4293
Change in Occupations
United States 1980-2000
Executive P/Tech
Sales
Other
Admin/Cler Service
Transport &
Precision Machinery Material
craft/
Operators Handling
No change
Agriculture
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
TCU
Wholesale
Retail
FIRE
PrivateHH
Other Services
Public Administration
Total
Change
(thousands)
8589
9436
10126
-1525
5548
2472
-3259
0-1% +
1-5% +
5-10% + 10-25% + 25-50% + 50%+
100%_+
0-1% 1-5% 5-10% 10-25% 25-50% - 50% -100%
blank - zero in 1980
? Role of New Economy Industries?
1960
Handers &
Other
Labor
Total
276
-409
3137
-1341
3272
1562
6180
3041
-302
20937
818
37171
876
Tr
a
ns
rt
O
A
rs
M
at
&
O
pe
er
rs
or
m
in
g
la
b
Fa
r
th
to
t/
ic
e
dl
in
g
ra
l
HH
af
rv
e
cr
Se
Ha
n
O
ia
l
er
er
in
c
er
at
ci
si
on
th
Pr
iv
le
s
ic
a
Sa
l
e
ic
a
tiv
hn
cu
cl
er
al
/T
ec
Ex
e
dm
in
/
io
n
Pr
e
ss
de
&
Ha
n
po
fe
-2 0 0 0
M
ah
Pr
o
Jobs (thousa nds)
12000
10000
80%
6000
60%
4000
40%
2000
0
20%
0%
% of jobs in se rvice s
Across Most Occupations Job Gains
Have Been Largely in Services
120%
100%
8000
? How much
of this growth
has been in
New Economy
Industries?
Location Decisions More Contingent
 Sites not selected to be close to clients
or suppliers
 Sites selected to suit founder or employee
lifestyles e.g. “A considerable number of
employees bike to work or want to bring
their dogs to work.” “Golf tees, pool tables,
basketball courts, and ping-pong tables were
part of the office environment we visited.”
? What location factors are key to New Economy firms?
Interaction – Greater Use of
IT and Face-to-Face Contact
3.5
3
P o p u la t io n
E m p lo y e d
2.5
A ir- P a s s e n g e rs E n p la n e d
A ir F re ig h t t o n m ile s
2
Te le p h o n e -B u s in e s s
A c c e s s L in e s
Te le p h o n e - R e s id e n t ia l
A c c e s s L in e s
1.5
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1
Key New Economy
Industries require
Face-to-face
Contact
? How Are
Advances in IT
Affecting
Location
Decisions?
Trade in the New Economy –
Services Lead the Economic Base
Export Employment Change
-1000000
0
1000000 2000000
A g. Serv ic es , Fores try , Fis hing
Mining
Cons truc tion
Manuf ac turing
A Minimum
Requirements
Estimate –
Likely UnderStates Exports
Trans portation, Communic ations , Utilities
W holes ale Trade
Retail Trade
Financ e, Ins uranc e, & Real Es tate
Jobs
Bus ines s & Prof es s ional Serv ic es
Legal Serv ic es
Members hip Organiz ations
Health Serv ic es
Educ ational Serv ic es
Soc ial Serv ic es
Other Serv ic es
Unc las s if ied Employ ment
? What Would
Case Studies
Of Trade
Patterns Reveal
For New
Economy
Industries?
From Production to
Consumption Perspectives
Food and tobacco
Share of United States
Disposable Income
Clothing, accessories, and
jewelry
($/100)
Personal care
Housing
$25
Household operation
$20
Medical care
$15
Personal business
Transportation
$10
Recreation
$5
Education and research
$0
96
19
93
19
90
19
87
19
84
19
81
78
19
19
75
72
19
19
69
66
19
-$5
19
19
63
Religious and welfare activities
Foreign travel and other, net
Changing Demands in
the Recreation Account
Books and maps
$1.8
Magazines, new spapers and sheet
music
Nondurable toys and sport supplies
$1.6
Wheel goods, sports and photographic
equipment, boats & pleasure aircraft
$1.4
Video and audio products, computing
equipment and musical instruments
$1.2
Radio and television repair
$1.0
Flow ers, seeds, and potted plants
Motion picture theaters
$0.8
Legiitimate theaters, opera, nonprofit
entertainment
$0.6
Spectator sports
$0.4
Clubs and fraternal organizations
Commercial participant amusements
$0.2
Pari-mutuel net receipts
$0.0
96
19
93
19
90
19
87
19
84
19
81
19
78
19
75
19
72
19
69
19
19
66
Other
63
?What is the
Geography
Associated
With these
Outlays?
$2.0
19
Many New
Economy
Industries are
Linked to
Consumer
Recreation
Demands
Consumption Spaces in
the New Economy
Fresno, CA
Seattle, WA
New York, NY
Chicago, IL
Miami, FL
Denver, CO
New Orleans, LA
Orlando, FL
Los Angeles, CA
Honolulu, HI
Las Vegas, NV
Eating &
Drinking
.89
1.07
.70
.95
1.07
1.22
1.31
1.41
1.09
1.65
1.25
Hotels
.39
.64
.62
.65
1.35
1.22
1.76
2.68
.83
6.61
20.57
Amusements
.57
1.03
1.11
1.00
1.43
1.58
2.15
3.39
1.85
1.32
2.66
Motion
Pictures
.16
.40
1.41
.47
.56
.52
.38
.35
8.29
.47
.80
Museums
.20
.71
1.60
1.76
.87
1.26
1.40
.64
1.10
2.32
.13
? What is the functional classification of consumption spaces?
? What is the urban and rural pattern?
The Opportunity to Push
The Envelope
• Geographic, Corporate Control, Enterprise,
Occupational, and Trade Related Research
Priorities in the New Economy
• Location and Modes of Interaction in the
New Economy – IT Related Research Priorities
• New Patterns of Consumption (and Investment)
in the New Economy need to be investigated
• The Need for Wide-Ranging Case Studies
That Inform and are Informed by Theory