Transcript Five Megatrends

Five Megatrends
California’s Future
Dr. Ellen O’Sullivan, CPRP
Leisure Lifestyle [email protected]
#1: Old and Young Both
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may find itself in the unenviable position of
providing services to a population that is
concentrated at both ends of the age spectrum,
both youth and the elderly
experiencing twice as many births as deaths
(20 million versus 8 million)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division andHousing and Household Economic Statistics Division
the proportion of those over 65 will have
increased to 17 percent from 11 percent in 1998
(by 2030)
the population of people over 65 in California
will grow from 3.6 million to 8.9 million
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Source: Public Policy Institute of California
#2: Heading Out, Coming In
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Exodus of current residents and influx of
international immigrants
Net loss of 4 million internal migrants to
other states
Adding 10 million international migrants
(39 percent of the nation’s total)
#3: It’s About the $$$
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High cost of living with fewer
residents covered by pensions than
other states
Source: Public Policy Institute of
California
#4: Two Californias
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Norcal - San Francisco and
Sacramento
35%+ increase in population
39+ increase in new jobs
29+ new homes
121+ in office space
action is moving east from Bay
area; Sacramento metro region
will build more housing and office
space in the next 25 years than
any other Western metro city
except Las Vegas
skilled workers in the Bay area
moving east to cheaper exurbs
neurotechnology (pharmaceuticals
with computers)
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Southland - LA and includes
Las Vegas
+35% people
+40+ job
+35% homes
+115% office space
by 2020 male illegal immigrants
will make up more than 10% of the
workforce – no other area has this
large an inexpensive work force
trade with China through the
country largest port, LA, as well
as new military and space
programs will do what the internet
did for northern CA in the 90s
Source: The $25 Trillion Land Grab by Kaihla
and Crawford. Business2.0 November
2005
#5: Myriad of Nominees
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Climate Change – Economic Impact
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Haves and Have Nots
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At Risk Lifestyles