Outlook for European forest products markets in 2001-2002

by Ed Pepke Forest Products Marketing Specialist UNECE & FAO, Geneva F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

Lahti, 2001

Topics of presentation

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Wood market situation in 2000 and 2001

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Forecasts for 2002

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Implications on utilization of roundwood

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UNECE Timber Committee recommendations

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Concluding marketing principle

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Questions F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Sources of information

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UNECE Timber Committee market statement from October 2001

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UNECE & FAO Timber Bulletin “Forest products annual market review, 2000-2001”

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UNECE & FAO TIMBER database F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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UNECE & FAO TIMBER database

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Annual forest products statistics from country correspondents, 1964-2000

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Timber Committee forecasts, 2001-2002

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Production, trade and consumption

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Available on Timber Committee website’s Market Information Service F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Forest products market segments

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Timber Committee forecasts for:

 Sawnwood  Panels  Roundwood •

Status of markets for:

 Further processed products  For example, Engineered Wood Products

F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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UN Economic Commission for Europe Region

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Europe (focus of this presentation, 41 countries!)

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North America

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Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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UNECE Timber Committee outlook

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Record levels in 2000

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Weakening markets in 2001

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Improvement forecast initially in 2002

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Uncertainty of 2002 forecasts following the 11 September attacks F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Increasing globalization effects

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Some effects not specific to forest products sector

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Sector-specific:

 Multi-national buying chains, e.g., DIY  Global product markets  Export-oriented plantations

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Forest products markets outlook

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Sawnwood

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Panels

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Utilization of roundwood

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Value-added products F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Sawnwood production & consumption – Europe

1

115,000.00

110,000.00

105,000.00

100,000.00

95,000.00

90,000.00

85,000.00

80,000.00

75,000.00

70,000.00

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Consumption Production F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Sawnwood consumption – N. America 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Softwood Hardwood F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Sawnwood production – CIS 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Production Consumption F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Sawnwood exports – Europe 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Softwood Hardwood F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Sawnwood exports – North America 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Softwood Hardwood F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Sawnwood exports – CIS 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Softwood Hardwood F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Sawnwood imports – Europe 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Softwood Hardwood F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Sawnwood trade – Europe 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Exports Imports F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Panels consumption – Europe 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Particleboard (with OSB) Plywood Fibreboard F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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MDF and OSB capacity – Europe 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 OSB MDF F A O

Source:

European Panel Federation, 2001

Puumarkkinapäivä,

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20 15 10 5 0 1996

OSB Production F A O

1997 1998 North America 1999 Europe 2000

Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Panel production – Europe 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Plywood Particleboard MDF F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Panel exports – Europe 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Particleboard MDF Plywood F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Panel imports – Europe 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Particleboard Plywood MDF F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Panels consumption – N. America 1984-2002 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 Particleboard (with OSB) 1994 1996 Plywood 1998 2000 2002 Fibreboard F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Panels consumption – N. America 1984-2002 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1984 1986 1988 Particleboard 1990 1992 1994 Plywood 1996 1998 Fibreboard 2000 2002 OSB F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Panels production – CIS 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2001 2002 Production Consumption F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Utilization of roundwood – Europe 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Wood pulp Sawnwood Panels F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Utilization of roundwood – N. America 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Wood pulp Sawnwood Panels F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Utilization of roundwood – CIS 1988-2002 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1988 1990 1992 Wood pulp 1994 1996 Sawnwood 1998 2000 Panels 2002 F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Further-processed product markets

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Example: engineered wood products

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Other examples: furniture, builders joinery and millwork

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Production and trade increasing rapidly F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Engineered Wood Products

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World glulam production +19% in 2000

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Wooden I-beams now 33% of North American floor area

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LVL (Laminated Veneer Lumber) production –6% in 2000 in North America, but +4% growth forecast F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Rapid growth in further processed products Added value for:

 Diversification  Profitability  Avoiding commodities cyclical movements •

Shift to low-cost production countries

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Reduction in international trade barriers F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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UNECE Timber Committee statement

• • • •

Expand existing markets Develop new products to meet evolving needs Develop new markets for wood products Increase the wood culture in the UNECE region

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Coordinate international promotion of environmental advantages of wood F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Conclusion: Remember the key marketing principal

1. Know your market.

F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Where is my market ?

Know your market.

Hei, up here, tollo poro !

F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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Questions?

F A O Puumarkkinapäivä,

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