Measuring forced displacement in Industrialized Countries: Data sources, methods and challenges in estimating refugee and asylum-seeker numbers

Khassoum Diallo Senior Statistician FICSS/DOS UNHCR New York, December 4-7, 2006 http://www.unhcr.org/statistics [email protected]

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Outline



Context and Scope



Data sources



Indicators



Estimation methods



Key challenges



Special issues

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CONTEXT: The migration-asylum nexus

• Forced and economic migration difficult to separate – Closely related causes – Similar strategies applied by forced and economic migrants • Common responses in receiving countries: – Lack of differentiation between asylum seekers and irregular migrants – Principle of

non-refoulement

not always applied • UNHCR Strategy: a 10-point plan.

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Scope of forced displacement Key measurement issues

• • • • • • •

Involuntary/Unplanned: inherent data collection problems Movements: none (stateless), internal or international Cause: conflict or persecution (not natural disasters ) Size: mass flows or individual movements Phases: displacement, return (post-conflict) Focus: countries of origin, transit and destination Duration: long-term and short-term



UNHCR’S CONCEPT OF “POPULATION OF CONCERN” includes refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, returned refugees, returned IDPs, Stateless persons and others of concern.

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Scope of forced displacement facts and figures (end-2005)

•

Estimated 38 million persons displaced globally

– 8.7 million refugees (UNHCR) – 4.2 million Palestinian refugees in Middle East (UNRWA) – ≈ 24 million internally displaced (IDMC) •

21 millions persons of concern to UNHCR, end-2005 Population of concern to UNHCR by category, end-2005

Total Country or territory of asylum (residence) 1 Refugees 8,661,994 Asylum seekers 772,592 Returned refugees 1,105,550 Internally displaced 6,616,791 Returned IDPs 519,430 Stateless persons 7 2,383,712 Various 960,366 Total 21,020,435 http://www.unhcr.org/statistics [email protected]

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UNHCR data sources

•

Main data sources

–

Government statistics

– –

More than 140 UNHCR country operations NGOs/Implementing partners

•

Basis of data

–

Registration/census

– –

Surveys Estimates

•

UNHCR Sources

•

Monthly asylum application data (36 i

ndustrialized countries) •

Quarterly Statistical Report (

QSR, mainly developing countries with UNHCR operations 120) •

Annual Statistical Report (ASR, over

150 countries) •

Annual Standard and Indicator Report (SIR,

Global coverage, National, camps, urban, returnees 2005) http://www.unhcr.org/statistics [email protected]

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Refugee statistics – Stocks and flows

• • •

Refugee stock, begin and end-period (year) Increases

– Population dynamic (births,

prima facie

refugee arrivals, resettlement arrivals) – Legal increases (grants of refugee status to asylum seekers, spouses, etc.)

Decreases

– Population dynamic (deaths, refugee departures (voluntary repatriation, resettlement)) – Legal decreases (cessation of refugee status, naturalization, etc.) http://www.unhcr.org/statistics [email protected]

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Measuring refugee stocks and flows: schematic overview

Voluntary repatriation Prima facie (group recognition) Positive decisions (individual) Resettlement arrivals REFUGEE POPULATION Naturalization Cessation Resettlement departures Births Deaths Other increases/ decreases

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Estimating refugee population

:

If no refugee data / register available

RP X



c n



k



X

   

or

1

y

4

X

(( 9

PD cy



PF cy



RA cy



OI cy

)  (

NR cy



VR cy



RD cy



OD cy

)) • With: – PD: Positive decisions on individual applications during a specific year y – PF: Prima Facie arrivals during the year – RA: Resettlement arrivals during the year – OI: Other increases during the year – NR: Number of naturalized refugees during the year – VR: Number of voluntarily repatriated refugees during the year – RD: Resettlement departures during the year – OD: Other decreases during the year – X Reference year y=years c=Countries of origin k=Estimate duration before naturalization (5 or 10 years in industrialized countries n= Number of countries of origin, including stateless persons http://www.unhcr.org/statistics [email protected]

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Estimating refugee population in 36 industrialized countries

RP X



c n



X

   

or

1

y

4

X

(( 9

PD cy



RA cy

)  (

NR cy

)) • With: – PD: Positive decisions on individual applications during a specific year y – RA: Resettlement arrivals during the year – NR: Number of naturalized refugees during the year – X: Reference year – y=years – c=Countries of origin – k=Estimate duration before naturalization (5 or 10 years in industrialized countries – n= Number of countries of origin, including stateless persons.

Assumptions: Naturalization of refugees after 5 years of residence in Canada, USA, Australia, New Zealand and after 10 years elsewhere. The 10 year duration will be applied for the USA next year.

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Asylum statistics: Estimation of recognition rates

RRRy TRRy

 

c n

  1 (

CR yc c n

  1

CR yc



HR yc



RJ yc

)

c n

  1 (

CR yc c n

  1 (

CR yc

 

HR yc HR yc

) 

RJ yc

) • Based on decisions – RRR: Refugee recognition rate – TRR Total recognition rate • CR: Number of refugees recognized under 1951 convention • HR: Number of asylum seekers grated refugee status on temporary/humanitarian basis • RJ Number of rejected cases during the year • c: Countries of origin • y: Reference Year Other indicators: Pending cases Percentage of otherwise closed cases http://www.unhcr.org/statistics [email protected]

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Asylum statistics: indicators for selected industrialized countries

Applications and refugee status determination by country of asylum, 2005 Country or territory Appl. Dec.

of asylum (residence) P/C 1 P/C 1 Australia C C Austria Denmark France France P P P P P P P P United Kingdom United Kingdom United States United States P C C P P C C P G G G G G G G G T 2 G L 3 AR FA FI FI AR FI AR IN EO Cases pending at the start of 2005 877 38,262 352 9,700 181,916 80,863 Applied during Recog- Huma 2005 Decisions during 2005 Otherw.

nized nitarian Rejected closed 3,149 1,194 1,983 174 22,461 2,260 49,733 38,563 4,650 93 4,184 8,375 772 135 5,498 1,098 8,741 9,585 30,840 24,890 24,247 14,993 2,470 5,883 9,554 10,212 2,955 23,750 4,030 1,913 83,354 29,847 Total 3,351 19,661 1,326 51,272 56,147 33,205 33,951 113,154 59,316 Cases pending at the end of 2005 677 40,710 267 5,500 7,000 98,514 71,229 Indicators Recognition rates Ref.

status 4 Total 5 38% 38% Change in pending cases -23% 43% 7% 8% 18% 50% 17% 8% 18% 6% -24% ..

..

8% 18% 32% 35% 19% 18% 32% 35% -43% ..

-46% -12% Notes

1 Applications and Decisions: C=Number of cases; P=Number of persons.

2 Type of procedure: G=Government; U=UNHCR; B=Government/UNHCR jointly.

3 Level in the procedure: FI=First instance; AR=Administrative Review, JR=Judicial Review; EO=Executive Office of Immigration Review; IN=Immigration and Naturalization Service; NA=New applications; RA=Repeat applications; FA=First instance and appeal; FIH=First instance humanitarian.

4 http://www.unhcr.org/statistics 12 [email protected]

Key challenges

• • • •

Scope and Definitions

– Asylum migration nexus – Terminology: Who is a refugee? (1951Conv./ humanitarian; long-term resident; rejected asylum-seekers, …)

Data sources and triangulation

– Coverage: Key information are missing – Register updating – Sources for triangulation

Data quality

– Timeliness in rapidly changing situations – Comparability – Compliance with recommendations (UN, UNECE, UNHCR) – Trends: Real or not (impact of regulations, definition and scope, data coverage)

Human resources and data protection

– Skills and training – Uses of data for informed decision making – Data Protection and confidentiality http://www.unhcr.org/statistics [email protected]

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Good practices - Zambia

•

Purpose of immigration in 2000 population and housing census (UNHCR funded)

–

If foreigner, why come to this country?

• Work • Study • Asylum • Family reunification – Work – Study – Asylum http://www.unhcr.org/statistics [email protected]

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Recommendations on international migration statistics

• • •

The 1998 revision of UN recommendations

• Purpose of migration (work, family reunification, asylum, study, …) • Use of existing national data sources

UNECE Recommendations UNHCR recommendation on Registration (EXecutive COMmittee Conclusion No. 91)

– – – –

Individual basis Confidentiality Identity (photograph) Data elements: name, sex, DOB, relation to HoH, origin, current location, special needs, etc.

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Expectations

• Refugee and asylum-seekers, key category of international migration • Breakdown (age, sex, location) wherever possible • Stateless persons as a specific category • Terminology: Many states are very sensitive on forced displacement issues • Data sharing http://www.unhcr.org/statistics [email protected]

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