Transcript THE DEMOGRAPHY OF FORCED DISPLACEMENT WITH A FOCUS ON MIGRATION MEASUREMENT ISSUES Khassoum DIALLO Snr Statistician UNHCR ESCWA/DESA Training workshop on international migration statistics CAIRO, 30/06 – 03/07

THE DEMOGRAPHY OF
FORCED DISPLACEMENT
WITH A FOCUS ON MIGRATION
MEASUREMENT ISSUES
Khassoum DIALLO
Snr Statistician
UNHCR
ESCWA/DESA Training workshop on international migration statistics
CAIRO, 30/06 – 03/07 2009
OUTLINE
• CONTEXT: MIGRATION ASYLUM NEXUS
• REFUGEES: A COMPONENT OF INTERNATIONAL
MIGRATION
• UNHCR MANDATE ON REPORTING REFUGEES, ASYLUMSEEKERS AND STATELESS PERSONS
• SCOPE OF FORCED DISPLACEMENT
• MEASURING FORCED DISPLACEMENT:DATA SOURCES,
INDICATORS,PATTERNS AND KEY CHALLENGES
• GOOD PRACTICES
• UNHCR:A KEY PARTNER
ARE REFUGEES
INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS?
• YES
• They crossed international border
• Citizen from another country / change of usual place of
residence
• Duration of stay can be decades in protracted situations
• Population accounting perspective
• UN Recommendations
• What is specific to refugees vs other migrants
• Legal perspective (1951 convention, non-refoulement,
rights of refugees) international human rights etc.
• Different treatment by asylum states
• Data protection and confidentiality
CONTEXT
• Migration-asylum nexus: UNHCR 10point plan
• Cluster approach: Need for better data
• Results-Based Management
• Performance monitoring and
accountability: UNHCR, Governments
and Donors.
• Advocacy for evidence based decision
making.
•
UNHCR protection mandate: Basis
for statistical reporting
Refugees
• 1950 Statute of the Office of the UNHCR
• 1951 UN Convention relating to the Status of Refugees
• 1967 Protocol relating to the Status of Refugees
States parties shall provide UNHCR with statistical information on the number and
conditions of refugees in their countries …. The UNHCR shall collect data on refugees
and report.
•
Stateless persons (refugees & non-refugees)
• 1954 Convention relating to the Status of Stateless persons
• 1961 Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness
• ExCom conclusions
Collection and reporting of information on Statelessness.
•
Internally displaced (IDPs)
• Request from Security Council/Secretary-General
• UN reform on IDP issues: Interagency Cluster approach
Primary responsibility of collecting information on IDPs lies with Cluster leads. UNHCR is
cluster lead for Protection, Camp Coordination and Management and Emergency
Shelter.
CONCEPTS AND
DEFINITIONS
•
•
•
•
•
MIGRATION
REFUGEE AND ASYLUM SEEKERS
INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS
STATELESS PERSONS
MIXED MIGRATION FLOWS
SCOPE OF FORCED DISPLACEMENT
• GENERAL MIGRATION ~
200 million in 2008
• REFUGEE AND ASYLUM
SEEKERS ~ 16 million
end-2008 (8%)
• IDPs (26 million)
% of refugees in de facto population
Lebanon
1.2%
Kuw ait
1.3%
Syria
5.0%
Jordan
8.0%
0.0%
Total refugees
10,478,621
Asylum-seekers
(pending cases)
827,323
Returned
refugees5
603,943
2.0%
4.0%
Total IDPs
protected/ assisted
by UNHCR
Returned IDPs7 Stateless persons8
14,405,405
1,361,436
6,572,167
6.0%
Various
8.0%
9
166,856
Total population of
concern
34,415,751
Key challenges
• Scope and Definitions
• Asylum migration nexus, national vs international
• Terminology: Who is a refugee, an IDP?
• Time, location, distance, causes
• Data sources and triangulation
•
•
•
•
Coverage: Key information are missing
Register updating
Sources for triangulation
Data collection methodologies and tools
• Data quality
• Timeliness in rapidly changing situations
• Comparability, scope
• Compliance with recommendations (UN, UNECE,
UNHCR)
• Human resources
• Skills and training
• Uses of data for informed decision making
Demographic patterns
• Increasing share of
urban refugees
• Between 70-90% of
refugees remain in
their region of origin
• Age sex distribution
Percentage of refugees remaining
within or outside their region of
asylum, end-2007
17%
14%
10%
83%
86%
90%
Af rica
Asia
Europe
Within region
Female
Category
17%
83%
Latin Am./
Caribb.
Outside region
Male
0-4yrs
5-11yrs
12-17yrs
18-59yrs
60yrs+
0-4yrs
5-11yrs
12-17yrs
18-59yrs
60yrs+
R+AS
5%
9%
7%
24%
2%
5%
10%
8%
27%
2%
IDPs
5%
9%
7%
26%
3%
5%
10%
7%
26%
3%
RET
9%
12%
7%
19%
2%
9%
13%
8%
19%
2%
RDP
11%
13%
6%
25%
1%
10%
10%
6%
17%
1%
KEY INDICATORS:
REFUGEE STATISTICS
• GENERAL POPULATION GROWTH
EQUATION
• P(t+1) = P(t) + (B-D) + (I-E)
In refugee context
• P(t+1) = P(t) + (B-D) + (I-E) + (LI-LD)
With LI/LD = Legal increases/Decreases
• Other indicators:
• Stock (at a given point of time, e.g. end-year),
• Source: Census, registers, admin records
• Flows (dynamic during a period)
• Source: permits, other registers
Asylum statistics: Estimation
of recognition rates
•
n
RRR 
 CR
c 1
n
 (CR
c 1
yc
 HRyc  RJ yc )
n
TRR 
 (CR
c 1
n
 (CR
c 1
yc
yc
yc
 HRyc )
 HRyc  RJ yc )
Based on decisions
• RRR: Refugee recognition
rate
• TRR Total recognition rate
• CR: Number of refugees
recognized under the 1951
convention
• HR: Number of asylum
seekers grated refugee
status on
temporary/humanitarian
basis
• RJ Number of rejected
cases during the year
• c: Countries of origin
• y: Year
Other indicators/concepts:
Pending cases
Percentage of otherwise
closed cases
Cases/persons; Type; Level
METHODS & DATA
SOURCES
Main sources of data, 2006-08
Various, 12%
NGOs, 4%
Government
only, 29%
Basis for UNHCR data, 2006-08
Gvt and
UNHCR, 25%
UNHCR only,
31%
Registration &
Estimation,
18%
Surveys/
Various, 8%
Estimation
only, 21%
Registration
only, 53%
Good Practice: Census
questionnaire Zambia
• Purpose of immigration in 2000 population and
housing census (UNHCR funded)
• If foreigner, why come to this country?
• Work
• Study
• Asylum
• Family reunification
− Work
− Study
− Asylum
Good practice: Country
and regional networks
• European / Asian programme on
forced displacement and migration
• Country level network of data
producers and users
• Regional network
• Data exchange platform (core
indicators, website, focal point system
etc.).
UNHCR AS A PARTNER
• COMPILATION/COLLECTION OF
DATA ON PERSONS OF CONCERN
(Over 130 countries)
• SUPPORT IN DATA COLLECTION
• REPORTING/DATA DISSEMINATION
(Online database, Statistical
Yearbook etc.)