Transcript The Colonization of Cyberspace Gordon Bell Senior Researcher Microsoft Corporation November 1999 © 1999 by Gordon Bell.

The Colonization of
Cyberspace
Gordon Bell
Senior Researcher
Microsoft Corporation
November 1999
1
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
In Silicon Valley, the Internet is all
we think about. Is it just greed???
• The internet has created (redistributing)
more wealth than any other phenomena.
• $200 B valuation; $2 B sales; -$0.2M return.
• WWW may be grossly over-hyped!
• Long run, the hype is likely to be justified.
• USA is <5% of the world population.
• Silicon Valley is <0.01% of this population.
• More people learning English in China than
speak it in the rest of the world
2
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Why organizations e.g. governments
and companies don’t yet understand it
• No direct experience (children tell them)
computing has advanced rapidly because
we like to building systems for our use
• Inward looking when at home…
inertia and there are always other
problems and interruptions to deal with
• We mix among like professionals
• The change is exponential:
You don’t see it coming.
The past may not matter!
It is hard to understand until it is you.
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
3
Agenda
• Everything cyberizable will be put into
cyberspace! Goal, quest, or fate?
• The demand side
• Platform, network, and cyberization
technologies evolution
• Internet (PC)-TV gateway: TV and audio
• Internet-POTS gateway: handhelds & phones
• The race toward E-Services startups!
• Some apps:
 Administrivia and financial
 Telepresentations
 Telecollaboration
industries
4
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Everything cyberizable will be in
Cyberspace! Goal? Quest? or Fate?
Continent
In Body
On Body
Car
Region/
Intranet
Home
Campus,
World
including SANs
Fractal Cyberspace: a
network of … networks
of … platforms
5
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Cyberization: interface to all bits and
process information
• Coupling to all information and information
processors e.g. people
• Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video
• Bit tokens e.g. money, stock
• State of: places, things, and people
• State of: physical networks
6
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Internet boom hurts overnite
delivery
7
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
8
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Book
page
9
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D
real space
Computation
Services based on content!
Communication
Cyberization
Programs, Content & Messages
10
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005,
2010, 2020
Data
Telephony
Television
Will we have
gateways?
11
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Demand: All the graphs
go up and to the right
... after 25 years!
12
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Percent of homes with
WWW Coverage
13
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Purchasing on the net
14
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Internetters growth
12000
10000
8000
World Population
extrapolated at 1.6% per year
6000
4000
2000
0
‘95
Internet Growth
extrapolated at 98% per year
‘96
‘97
‘98
‘99
‘00
‘01
‘02
‘03
‘04
15
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Growth in hype vs reality
WWW books,
Infoway
newspapers regulation
Infoway
speculation
“how great it’ll
be” (politicians
Infoway
addiction
conferences
lawsuits
16
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Data from Gordon’s WAG
Several near term bets I’ve made
2001:
NOT One billion internet users
(N. Negroponte)
2001:
1/2 of commercial PCs will
have cameras (Gray)
2001:
NOT 10K WSs communicate @
1 Gbps (Reddy)
2004:
NOT More LEPs than LCDs or
E-ink… (Hauser, Prod. Mgr. E-ink)
17
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Why the bet of 1 billion users on
the net is a keystone bet!
It determines the market
 for
 for
networks
access devices… especially PCs
It says something about the utility
 commerce
 communication
 entertainment
Increased network capacity & ubiquity
enables
 phones
 videophones
 television
 serendipity
18
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
What technology will we build with?
How will it evolve?
19
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
The two great inventions
The computer (1946… realised in 1948).
Computers supplement and substitute for all
other info processors, including humans


Memories come in a hierarchy of sizes, speeds, and
prices… the challenge is to exploit them
Computers are built from other computers in a
iterative, layered, and recursive fashion
The Transistor (1946) and subsequent Integrated
Circuit (1957).


Processors, memories, switching, and transduction are
the primitives in well-defined hardware-software levels
A little help from magnetic, photonic, and other
transducer technologies
20
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Performance in Mflop/s
Growth of microprocessor
performance
10000
1000
100
Cray 2
Cray Y-MP Cray C90
Alpha
RS6000/590
Alpha
RS6000/540
Cray X-MP
Cray 1S
10
Cray T90
Supers
Micros
i860
R2000
1
0.1
0.01
8087
80387
6881
80287
21
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Bell’s Law of
Computer Class Formation
Log price
Technology enables two evolutionary paths:
1. constant performance, decreasing cost
2. constant price, increasing performance
Mainframes (central)
Mini
WSs
PCs (personals)
Time
Handheld ??
1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .8
1.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
22
Bell’s Nine Computer Price Tiers
1$:
10$:
100$:
1,000$:
10,000$:
100,000$:
1,000,000$:
10,000,000$:
100,000,000$:
embeddables e.g. greeting card
wrist watch & wallet computers
pocket/ palm/telephone
portable computers
•
personal
computers (desktop)
departmental computers (closet)
site computers (glass house)
regional computers (glass castle)
national centers
Super server: costs more than $100,000,000
“Mainframe”: costs more than $1 million
an array of processors, disks, tapes, comm ports
23
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Platform evolution:
What do they do that’s useful?
How do they communicate?
24
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Changing Internet access
Info Appliances
Hand-helds
Connected PCs
(WWW)
Discrete PC
(email)
Cellphones &
phone access
Set-tops & NCs
Game Consoles
1985
1995
2005
Sources: Network Computer Inc. & IDC
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
25
Number of U.S. Subscribers using
high speed interconnections
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1999
Cable
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
2001
DSL
Wireless
2003
Satellite
NXGEN
26
The evolution of
2.0 wireless data standards
UMTS
2Mbps
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.1
0
EDGE
384kbps
GPRS
115kbps
HSCSD
Circuit data 57.6kbps
<9.6kbps
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
27
USA Today 1 Sept. 99
Video...
Plus >>B/W
Nomadicity Universality
28
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
29
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Radio
30
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Ch 54 (Boulder)
announcement
9/8/99
31
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
1988 Federal Plan for Internet
32
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
P lus M aximum T runk S pe e d and M ax/M in S witch S pe e d R e quire d in the Inte rne t
Internet growths vs time
courtesy of Dr. Larry Roberts
100 Pbps
Voice Crossover
10 Pbps
1 Pbps
100 Tbps
$100 M
10 Tbps
$10 M
1 Tbps
Voice Traffic
100 Gbps
Max. Switch Speed
10 Gbps
$1 M
$100 K
OC-192
1 Gbps
OC-48
100 Mbps
OC-3
10 Mbps
OC-12
T3
T1
1 Mbps
100 Kbps
OC-768
$100 K 56
KB
1997 Breakpoint
Max. Port Speed
Internet Traffic
10 Kbps
1 Kbps
100 bps
10 bps
33
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Desktop-desktop @ 1 gbps
http://research.
microsoft.com/
~gray/papers/
Win2K_1Gbps.doc
34
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
35
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Virtuous cycle of bandwidth
Increased
Demand
Increase Capacity
(circuits & b/w)
Standards
Create new
service
Mail/ FTP/ Telnet
Lower
response time
WWW
Audio
Video
Voice!
36
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Minutes to transfer various data
100.00
10.00
POTS
ISDN
T1
1.00
Eth'net
25 Mb
0.10
1 Floppy
20 Flop's
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
100 MBy
600 MBy
1.9 GBy
9 GBy
37
In a decade we can/will have:
more powerful personal computers





processing 10-100x
4x resolution (2K x 2K);
Very large, room sized displays?
Very small watch-sized displays
low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use
adequate networking????

ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs
One chip, networked platforms including light
bulbs, cameras everywhere, etc.
Some well-defined platforms that compete with
the PC for mind (time) share
watch, pocket, body implant, home
more cyberization… the challenge… interfacing
platforms and people.
38
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Storing all we’ve
read (written), heard (said), &
seen (participated in or presented)
Human data-types
read text, few pictures
/hr
200 K
/day (/4yr)
2 -10 M/G
/lifetime
60-300 G
speech text @120wpm
speech @1KBps
43 K
3.6 M
0.5 M/G
40 M/G
15 G
1.2 T
video-like 50Kb/s POTS
video 200Kb/s VHS-lite
22 M
90 M
.25 G/T
1 G/T
25 T
100 T
video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G
20 G/T
1P
39
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Living in Cyberspace
… the home infrastructure
being always connected is essential
...or why cable tv or ADSL or
ubiquitous fast, wireless is
critical for continued growth
40
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Infrastructure
41
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Another big bang?
Internet to TV and audio:
The Net, PC meet the TV
“milliBill”
Home
CATV
Video
capture
PC broadcasts
are mixed into
home CATV in
analog and/or
MPEG digital
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Settop
box
Analog/digital cable distribution
Ethernet Home network
Basic ideas:
1. PC records or plays
thru video cable
channels.
2. PC “broadcasts” art
images, webcams,
presentations,
videos, DVDs, etc.
3. Ethernet not cable?
42
PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillg
Using PCs to drive large screens e.g.
tv sets, Plasma Panels
Gordon Bell
Jim Gemmell
Bay Area Research Center
Microsoft Research
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation
43
PCTV:
A home CATV Server
Television/Computing Convergence
•A PC server broadcasts “content*” to TV
sets directly or to all sets using the home
CATV distribution
•The PC captures TV streams for filtering,
storage, replay, etc. ala TiVO and ReplayTV
•Cameras and the web provide content
*Content: art, photos, PPT Albums,
webcams, plain old TV, home video, DVD,
MTV, games…
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
For display on 16 x 9 format … or 852 x 480 Fujitsu Plasma
44
Panel
45
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
I stretched
the canvas.
46
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
47
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
48
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Cousins, Aunts, Uncles etc.
49
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Webcams
50
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
The Next Convergence
POTS connects to the Web
a.k.a. Phone-Web Gateways
Web Server
PSTN
Voice to WEB
Bridge
The
Web
DataBase
51
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
WebOnPhone
Mission:
Enable voice and text access on phones,
screen phones, PDAs and other devices to
existing Internet infrastructure in an
intelligent, customizable way.
WebOnPhone
52
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
All the services build on the
evolving infrastructure
53
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Internet (circa 1999)
Courtesy of Zindigo Ventures
Content
Syndication
$2B+ **
Content Syndicators
Internet Services
$170B*
Infrastructure
$171B*
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Personal/Employee Data
Access
Web Hosting
Applications & Middleware
Computers & Operating Layer Software
Network Hardware/Protocols
55
The Nature of E-services
 Only
electrons, no atoms e.g. inventory
 Verticals: ERP, benefits, time card, travel,
performance rev, payroll, calendars,
procurement, facilities, marketing tools,
 Transaction (filing, retrieval) under control
of individual from browser, not an
administrator, department, or corporation
 Alternative to: manual, home grown apps, or
retooled large legacy licensed apps e.g.
Oracle, Peoplesoft, SAP
 Information is stored at the service NOT on
premise with the organization providing it
 Service up and running instantaneously.
56
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
ERP E-Services
Definition:
ERP E-services provide human resources and the
back office (time and expense reporting, invoicing,
purchase order management, hiring and
performance plans) as an outsourced monthly
Web service.
57
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Http://wwww.medicalogic.com
Internet-based service for keeping medical
records electronically …EMR
No on site or in office equipment except a
browser and printer
Facilities
 rapid
input and record retrieval
 accessible anywhere at anytime
 patient accessible
 prescription drug interaction, advice, etc.
58
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
59
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
MS internal home for adminstrivia
60
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Paperless
paychecks
61
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Stock options
62
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Impact on the financial industries:
Eliminating the atoms that represent
money, ownership, … risk
and replacing them with electrons…
63
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
New or old money… it’s just bits
Credit
ATM /
Prepaid
Check
Cash
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Prepaid
64
Put those checks & statements in
Cyberspace or eliminate them!
65
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Buying & selling stock: what a pain!
Faxes? (Electronic signatures are becoming “legal”.)
Acrobat 4 has tamper-proof signatures!
66
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Paperless transactions:
put them all in Cyberspace
67
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Telepresentations:
The 2nd killer app?
68
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Telepresentations
Being there (e.g. meeting, lecture, conference)
Without Really Being There (or Then)
Presenter or audience need not be
physically present
Reach a wider audience


“I have a schedule conflict.”
Anybody with a web connection can
participate
Reduce costs

No need to travel to attend or
participate in a presentation
Education & training, corporate
communication
69
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
70
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Telepresentation
Elements
Slides
Audio
Video
Script,
text
comments,
hyperlinks,
etc.
71
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Telepresentations will be a
well-defined app by 2001.
ACM97 was the first telepresented
conference with Mbone multicast &
servers that host the conference cf.
http://www.research.microsoft.com/acm97
Bet: More people will view the conference
from Cyberspace than that attended it.
Big question: will telepresentation
technology AKA tele-learning affect
learning and education?
72
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Telecollaboration…
The next “killer tele-app”??
Or just a tremendous challenge
interacting to achieve a
common objective …
basically, its communications
enabling or disabling people
73
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
Telework: It takes screens,
sound, and bandwidth, stupid
74
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/
How to Fail at Videoconferencing
Lack of ubiquity: it must obey Metcalfe’s Law
Call set up: hard, time-consuming, require
training
Small screens, destroy spatiality,
eliminate visual cues
No gaze awareness, limit screen area; only
2-D figures or avatars
Audio: high latency and poor quality
Fail to beat the competition!
The phone is ubiquitous, requires no
manuals or training, low latency, ok audio
The targets: audio quality, 3-D in every
sense, and gaze awareness
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
75
Four steps to video-telephony
enabling telemeetings
Very low cost IP telephony must first
become ubiquitous
(bandwidth, jitter, lower latency)
Evolve audio to provide spatial
awareness aka stereo and quad.
Add multi-party, scalability, mbone…
Make recording easy. This will enable
meeting persistence and minutes.
76
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.
End
77
© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.