Transcript BOARD of GOVERNORS Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment Supply-Demand Gap Analysis: Which Occupations are Undersupplied? Which Academic Programs Might Need to Grow? Jan Ignash,

BOARD of GOVERNORS
Commission on Higher Education
Access and Attainment
Supply-Demand Gap Analysis:
Which Occupations are Undersupplied?
Which Academic Programs Might Need to Grow?
Jan Ignash, Vice Chancellor, Academic and Student Affairs
March 8, 2013
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BOARD of GOVERNORS State University System of Florida
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Supply-Demand Gap Analysis: Agenda
Meeting Agenda
Introduction
Which Occupations are Undersupplied?
• Gap Analysis Methodology
• List of Undersupplied Occupations Requiring a Bachelor’s
Which Academic Programs Might Need to Grow?
• Focus on Computer Occupations
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BOARD of GOVERNORS State University System of Florida
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Introduction to the Supply-Demand Gap Analysis
Supply
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vs
Demand
Gap
Analysis
Contextual
Metrics
BOARD of GOVERNORS State University System of Florida
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Gap Analysis Methodology: Supply
Supply
vs
Demand
Gap
Analysis
Contextual
Metrics
• SOURCE: Supply is based on 2010-11 degrees awarded data as
reported by 396 Florida institutions to the National Center for Education
Statistics.
• LIMITATION: The methodology includes all graduates, including
those who left Florida. We do not yet have employment or continuing
education data for students who leave Florida for each academic
program. This is a work in progress.
• LIMITATION: The methodology does not include any consideration of
occupational in-migration, occupational retention, and attrition.
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BOARD of GOVERNORS State University System of Florida
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Supply: Top Degrees Awarded in Florida (in 2010-11)
By Discipline Groups and Degree Level
ACADEMIC DISCIPLINE GROUPS
ASSOCIATE'S BACHELOR'S MASTER'S
DOCTORAL
& PROF.
TOTAL
STATE TOTAL
85,849
88,092 30,582
9,278 213,801
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT, MARKETING, SUPPORT SERVS.
HEALTH PROFESSIONS AND RELATED PROGRAMS
EDUCATION
SOCIAL SCIENCES
HOMELAND SECURITY, LAW ENFORCEMENT,
FIREFIGHTING AND RELATED PROTECTIVE SERVICES
PSYCHOLOGY
VISUAL AND PERFORMING ARTS
ENGINEERING
BIOLOGICAL AND BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES
LEGAL PROFESSIONS AND STUDIES
COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCES
COMMUNICATION, JOURNALISM, & RELATED PROGRAMS
ENGLISH LANGUAGE AND LITERATURE/LETTERS
ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGIES & ENGINEERING-RELATED
FIELDS
ALL OTHERS1
3,686
15,325
136
*
22,718 10,544
7,799 4,032
5,619 5,727
7,769
542
306
3,218
831
102
37,254
30,374
12,313
8,414
2,630
3,590
572
38
6,830
*
1,209
*
99
1,059
1,735
*
*
5,471
4,671
3,771
4,207
634
2,155
3,910
2,322
974
722
1,943
550
272
488
359
215
321
67
450
180
2,996
62
21
53
6,767
6,669
6,171
5,036
4,961
4,440
4,298
2,590
1,545
600
201
*
2,347
58,425
12,856
3,441
633
75,337
Note 1: All Others include 54,925 Associate’s degrees assigned to ‘General Studies’ . Note 2: An asterisk (*) indicates ten or fewer.
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Gap Analysis Methodology: Demand
Supply
vs
Demand
Gap
Analysis
Contextual
Metrics
• SOURCE: Demand is based on the long-term (2012-2020)
occupational employment projections of annual job openings (growth
and replacements) by the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity
Labor Market Statistics Center.
• KEY DECISION: Previously, this Commission agreed that the
educational attainment levels for the occupational data would be based
on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) national taxonomy of
educational levels.
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Demand: Florida’s Top Occupational Groups
By Projected Annual Job Openings (2012-2020)
PROJECTED ANNUAL JOB OPENINGS
OCCUPATIONAL GROUPS
CODE
BY BLS’ TYPICAL DEGREE REQUIRED FOR ENTRY
TITLE
ASSOCIATE BACHELOR
STATE TOTAL
MASTER
4,346
1,104
DOCTORAL
TOTAL
16,711
7,228
42,318
234
8,686 72,061
3,727 12,293
1,088
7,098
8,186
5,866
5,193
4,428
3,090
29-1
Health Diagnosing and Treating Practitioners
25-2
Preschool, Primary, Secondary, and
Special Education School Teachers
13-1
13-2
15-1
25-1
Business Operations Specialists
Financial Specialists
Computer Occupations
Postsecondary Teachers
5,866
5,193
4,410
315
506
21-1
Counselors, Social Workers, and Other Community
and Social Service Specialists
1,369
1,435
2,804
11-1
29-2
11-9
23-1
Top Executives
Health Technologists and Technicians
Other Management Occupations
Lawyers, Judges, and Related Workers
15
283
2,699
2,563
2,257
2,212
25-3
Adult Basic and Secondary Education
and Literacy Teachers, All Other
2,192
2,192
Engineers
Media and Communication Workers
Operations Specialties Managers
All Others
2,114
1,355
1,171
9,098
2,114
1,355
1,171
487 13,638
17-2
27-3
11-3
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1,996
2,308
1,041
3,050
703
240
933
27
18
2,269
2,185
1,003
BOARD of GOVERNORS State University System of Florida
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Gap Analysis Methodology: Gap Analysis
Supply
vs
Gap
Analysis
Demand
Contextual
Metrics
• In an effort to limit the problem of overstating supply due to occupations being linked to
multiple academic disciplines, the supply data was adjusted to only count the target
occupation’s share of non-managerial job openings available for qualified graduates.
FINANCIAL ANALYST
SOC
CIP
Accounting
and Finance
Accounting
and Business
Management
Finance,
General
SOC
Financial Managers
Accountants and Auditors
Budget Analysts
Financial Analysts
Financial Managers
Accountants and Auditors
Financial Analysts
Chief Executives
Financial Managers
Budget Analysts
Credit Analysts
Financial Analysts
Personal Financial Advisors
Financial Specialists, All Other
326
3,093
4,641
OPENINGS
BACHELOR’S
NON-MANAGER OPENINGS
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530
3,237
104
326
530
3,237
326
660
530
104
124
326
575
275
ADJUSTED SUPPLY
In this example, only 7% of
the total supply (3,093
graduates) is used in the
gap analysis because the
financial analysts only
comprises 7% of the 4,641
non-managerial jobs
available to these
graduates. So, the adjusted
supply is 3,093 x .07 = 217.
BOARD of GOVERNORS State University System of Florida
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Florida’s Most Undersupplied Occupations
Typically Requiring a Bachelor’s Degree for Entry
PROJECTED
ANNUAL
DEMAND
MOST UNDERSUPPLIED
NON-MANAGERIAL OCCUPATIONS
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Middle School Teachers (not Special Education)
Accountants and Auditors
Computer Systems Analysts
Software Developers, Applications
Information Security Analysts, Web Developers
and Network Architects
Software Developers, Systems Software
Training and Development Specialists
Computer Programmers
Operations Research Analysts
Graphic Designers
Kindergarten Teachers (not Special Education)
Industrial Engineers
Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists
Insurance Underwriters
Loan Counselors
Public Relations Specialists
Financial Analysts
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BACHELORS
ADJUSTED
SUPPLY
BACHELORS
ANNUAL
GAP
1,239
3,237
865
651
215
2,375
301
192
-1,024
-862
-564
-459
800
361
-439
537
505
556
307
655
506
289
240
241
156
600
326
167
157
240
90
442
296
112
71
109
38
484
217
-370
-348
-316
-217
-213
-210
-177
-169
-132
-118
-116
-109
BOARD of GOVERNORS State University System of Florida
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Gap Analysis Methodology: Contextual Metrics
Supply
vs
Demand
Gap
Analysis
Contextual
Metrics
• Entry Wage
• Projected 2012-2020 Annual Growth Rates
• 2011-2012 Trend in Help Wanted Online Advertisements (HWOL)
• Warehouse Indicator
• Supply from Lower and Higher Educational Levels
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BOARD of GOVERNORS State University System of Florida
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Florida’s Most Undersupplied Occupations
at the Bachelor’s Level: Contextual Metrics
MOST UNDERSUPPLIED
NON-MANAGERIAL OCCUPATIONS
Middle School Teachers (not Special & Voc. Education)
2 Accountants and Auditors
3 Computer Systems Analysts
4 Software Developers, Applications
Information Security Analysts, Web Developers
5
and Network Architects
6 Software Developers, Systems Software
7 Training and Development Specialists
8 Computer Programmers
9 Operations Research Analysts
10 Graphic Designers
11 Kindergarten Teachers (not Special Education)
12 Industrial Engineers
13 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists
14 Insurance Underwriters
15 Loan Counselors
16 Public Relations Specialists
17 Financial Analysts
1
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AVG.
ENTRY
WAGE
2012-2020
ANNUAL
GROWTH
RATE
$38,963
$40,431
$55,382
$48,824
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
2.0%
38%
22%
11%
24%
0%
4%
2%
1%
$43,045
1.9%
.
.
$62,291
2.5%
2.7%
0.6%
1.3%
1.1%
2.0%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
2.6%
2.1%
1.9%
-6%
92%
5%
13%
19%
8%
7%
35%
34%
-9%
25%
11%
1%
2%
2%
1%
4%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
4%
$34,098
$43,801
$37,873
$27,943
$36,663
$42,289
$45,350
$39,991
$30,904
$35,650
$47,224
2011-2012
WAREHOUSE
HWOL
INDICATOR
TREND
BOARD of GOVERNORS State University System of Florida
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Florida’s Most Undersupplied Occupations
at the Bachelor’s Level: Additional Context
MOST UNDERSUPPLIED
NON-MANAGERIAL OCCUPATIONS
DEGREE PRODUCTION BY LEVEL
PROJECTED
MASTER'S
ANNUAL ASSOCIATE'S BACHELOR'S
ADJUSTED
ADJUSTED
ADJUSTED
DEMAND
SUPPLY
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Middle School Teachers (not Special Education)
Accountants and Auditors
Computer Systems Analysts
Software Developers, Applications
SUPPLY
SUPPLY
1,239
3,237
865
651
0
137
229
73
215
2,375
301
192
112
859
62
64
Information Security Analysts, Web Developers,
and Network architects
800
212
361
105
Software Developers, Systems Software
Training and Development Specialists
Computer Programmers
Operations Research Analysts
Graphic Designers
Kindergarten Teachers (not Special Education)
Industrial Engineers
Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists
Insurance Underwriters
Loan Counselors
Public Relations Specialists
Financial Analysts
537
505
556
307
655
506
289
240
241
156
600
326
53
1
72
0
343
60
0
31
0
1
0
0
167
157
240
90
442
296
28
71
109
38
484
217
71
230
83
11
119
54
50
0
0
0
19
20
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BOARD of GOVERNORS State University System of Florida
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Top 15 Undersupplied Occupations
at the Bachelor’s Level: Current Supply by Sector
2010-11 BACHELOR’S
SUPPLY BY SECTOR
OCCUPATIONS
Middle School Teachers (not Special & Voc. Education)
2 Accountants and Auditors
3 Computer Systems Analysts
4 Software Developers, Applications
Information Security Analysts,
5
Web Developers and Network Architects
6 Software Developers, Systems Software
7 Training and Development Specialists
8 Computer Programmers
9 Operations Research Analysts
10 Graphic Designers
11 Kindergarten Teachers (not Special Education)
12 Industrial Engineers
13 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists
14 Insurance Underwriters
15 Loan Counselors
16 Public Relations Specialists
17 Financial Analysts
1
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SUS
ICUF
CIE
FCS
76%
67%
63%
56%
15%
26%
24%
19%
0%
6%
12%
25%
9%
0%
1%
0%
62%
21%
16%
1%
54%
40%
45%
42%
20%
86%
81%
99%
100%
79%
60%
84%
21%
58%
10%
58%
15%
1%
19%
1%
0%
21%
40%
12%
25%
2%
45%
0%
66%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
9%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
BOARD of GOVERNORS State University System of Florida
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In Conclusion: Which Programs Might Need to Grow?
Focus on Undersupplied Computer Occupations
TOP UNDERSUPPLIED COMPUTER OCCUPATIONS
Academic Disciplines
1 Computer and Information Sciences, Gen.
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Computer and Information Systems
Security & Information Assurance
Computer Engineering, General
Computer Graphics
Computer Programming/Programmer, Gen.
Computer Science
Computer Software Engineering
Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst
Computer Systems Networking
and Telecommunications
Information Science/Studies
Information Technology
Management Information Systems, Gen.
TOTAL NUMBER OF DISCIPLINES
LINKED TO OCCUPATION
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Software
Computer
Computer Software
Developers,
Computer
Network Programmers Systems Developers,
Systems
Architects
Analysts Applications Software
●
●
TOTAL
2
●
1
●
●
●
●
3
2
●
●
●
3
●
●
●
3
●
●
2
●
●
2
●
●
2
●
●
●
●
1
●
4
●
6
4
1
4
5
6
25
BOARD of GOVERNORS State University System of Florida
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Bachelor’s Degrees in Academic Disciplines Related to
Top Undersupplied Computer Occupations by Sector
Academic Disciplines
CIP Titles
SUS ICUF CIE FCS TOTAL
1
Computer and Information Sciences, General
58
.
780
2
Computer and Information Systems Security/Information Assurance.
.
. 120
.
120
3
4
Computer Engineering, General.
Computer Graphics.
239
.
39
.
2 252
.
.
278
254
5
Computer Programming/Programmer, General.
.
4 200
.
204
6
8
Computer Science.
Computer Software Engineering.
Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst.
.
.
.
57
23
.
.
36
40
.
.
.
57
59
40
9
Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications.
.
.
38
12
50
10
11
Information Science/Studies.
Information Technology.
9
334
26
72
23
15
.
.
58
421
12
Management Information Systems, General.
474
45
31
.
550
7
TOTAL
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481 241
1,537 509
813
12
2,871
BOARD of GOVERNORS State University System of Florida
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The List: Top Educational Program Areas for Growth
(See hand-out.)
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BOARD of GOVERNORS State University System of Florida
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Next Steps
1. Choosing the highest areas of program need, based upon the
current gap analysis
2. Developing a process to respond to the need
1. RFP Process
2. Factors to include
3. The role of partnerships
4. Cost considerations
3. Identifying “who should grow”
4. Considering near-term, immediate needs as well as longerterm needs
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BOARD of GOVERNORS State University System of Florida
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