Transcript WMO Status and Plans of the SWFDP – Severe Weather Forecasting Development Project Ken Mylne Chair DPFS (Data-processing and Forecasting Systems) & Chair SWFDP SG WMO;

WMO
Status and Plans of the SWFDP –
Severe Weather Forecasting Development Project
Ken Mylne
Chair DPFS (Data-processing and Forecasting Systems)
& Chair SWFDP SG
WMO; WDS
Vision for improving severe weather forecasting
and warning services in developing countries
“NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable
and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes
through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative
forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of
disasters from natural hazards.”
(World Meteorological Congress, 2007 and 2011)
Implemented through the Severe Weather
Forecasting Development Project (SWFDP)
“Implementation of a “Cascading Forecasting Process”, an approach that
provides improved access to, and effective use by forecasters of existing and
newly developed NWP/EPS products made available by advanced GDPFS
Centres, national forecasting and warning services have improved significantly,
with increased lead-times and greater reliability.”
(World Meteorological Congress, 2011)
SWFDP Main Goals
WMO
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Improve Severe Weather Forecasting through the
“Cascading Forecasting Process” (Global to Regional to
National)
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Improve lead-time of Warnings
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Improve interaction of NMHSs with users
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Identify areas for improvement and requirements for the
Basic Systems
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Improve the skill of products from WMO Operational
centres through feedback
SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process
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Global NWP centres to provide available NWP/EPS and sat-based products,
including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame;
Regional centres to interpret information received from global centres, prepare
daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine
products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs;
NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; to liaise with user
communities, and to contribute feedback and evaluation of the project;
NMCs have access to all products, and maintained responsibility and authority
over national warnings and services.
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Global Centres
5
RSMC Pretoria
NMCs
User communities,
including Disaster
Management
authorities
SWFDP Guidance Products from
RSMC Pretoria
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RSMC analysis forecast information
Guidance every day for the next 5 days
Hazards: heavy rain, strong wind, high seas
and swell, severe winter weather
Guidance info made available through
dedicated Webpage to NMCs
Links to RSMC La Réunion TC forecasting
SWFDP: a cross-cutting activity involving multiple TCs and
Progs, concerning prediction of hydro-meteorological hazards
Flash Flood
Guidance
AgM, MMO,
AeM, WCP, etc.
HWR
Tailored Forecasting
Products for Specialized
Applications
SP
General Public,
media, disaster
management
authorities
AgM, MMO,
AeM, etc.
WIGOS, WIS
GDPFS
PWS, HWR,
PWS
WCP
Specific User Sectors
(Agriculture, Marine,
Aviation, etc.)
TCP
(Forecast/Warning Bulletins)
LAM & Guidance Products
(risk/probability)
National Met Centres
(RSMCs, RFSC, RCCs)
Regional Centre
RSMCs-TC
Global NWP/EPS and
Sat-based products
WWRP
Global Centres
Feedback and Verification
Capacity Development (CD), including Training (ETR)
Research Projects
Satellite
Imagery
and Tools
Observing
and
information
systems
WMO
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SWFDP – Eastern Africa – Lake Victoria
(status/progress)
Focus on:
 Strong winds
 Heavy precipitation
 Hazardous waves
(Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria)
 Dry spells
Users: general public, disaster management,
media, agriculture and fisheries
Domains:
 5E – 55E; 30N – 25S
(for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying
the various severe weather events)
 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S
(for the Lake Victoria)
Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP
(NWP guidance material)
MSG satellite products (EUMETSat products)
Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by
TMA, UKMO and DWD
National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda,
Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia
Started September 2011
Lake Victoria
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Around 3000 people/yr
die in boating accidents
Satellite imagery and
ATD provide scope for
nowcasting
4km UM provided
Mobile phones for
communication
Diurnal forcing of convection
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Lake at night; high ground to East by day
Met Office 4km UM - 0200-0800UTC 15/3/13
SWFDP Regional Projects
WMO
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Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria,
RSMC-TC La Réunion)
Southwest Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States;
RSMC Wellington, RSMC-TC Fiji)
Eastern Africa (ongoing, 6 countries; RSMC Nairobi,
RFSC Dar)
Southeast Asia (in development, 5 countries; RFSC
Hanoi)
Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries; RSMC-TC
New Delhi)
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WMO global and regional operational centres (e.g. RSMCs)
42 NMHSs of developing countries (29 of which are LDCs/SIDSs)
Several WMO programmes (i.e. GDPFS, PWS, TCP, DRR, MMO, AgM, SP, ETR,
CD, LDC, RP, and WWRP) and technical commissions (i.e. CBS, CAgM, CHy,
JCOMM, and CAS)
SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings
• Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds
– High-impact focus (flash-flooding, damaging winds, near-shore
damaging waves, landslides);
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Forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time)
Forecasting (GDPFS), warning services (PWS)
Forecast Verification
Phase-in other developments
Training for forecasters and disaster managers
• Technological gaps:
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Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events
Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h)
Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations
Internet-based
GIFS products for SWFDP (MRI-JMA)
SWFDP:
- Southern Africa
- Eastern Africa
- Southwest Pacific
- Southeast Asia
Global Hazard Map
Summary map to
track features through
days of forecast
Daily map to overlay
different hazards and
vulnerability layers
SWFDP – Resources
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WMO
Regular budget: GDPFS financially supported the SWFDP-related
events, including training, while a number of WMO Programmes (e.g.
ETR, PWS, TCP, SAT, AgM, WWRP) have collaboratively provided
limited funds to support expert participation at some of the SWFDPrelated meetings
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Support from advanced global centres that provide NWP/EPS and
satellite-based products, and the backbone roles played by the
regional centres are critical components for the implementation of the
SWFDP, which represent in-kind contributions by WMO Members
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Extra-budgetary funds from WMO Members, and donor agencies (e.g.
World Bank, etc.)
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Staff: DPFS (responsible for the overall project), with the collaboration
of PWS and AgM
Future directions and role of the SWFDP
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More countries, new regions
(over 100 countries: developing
and least developed countries) ~
12 RSMCs
Hydro-meteorological hazards
Sector-specific hazards (e.g.
agriculture, marine, etc.)
Beyond day-5
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Vehicle for introducing promising
R&D
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Cross-programme guidance
Regular budget and
extrabudgetary resourses
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Project Office
Ultimate Goal:
Establishing a National Severe
Weather Warnings Programme for
every Member of WMO
Technical Requirements for SWFDP Benefit
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Cascading of SWFDP products
and guidance uses:
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Requirements to benefit:
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Simple web pages
Products as Images including
animation
Web-browser
Low band-width connection
Forecaster and PWS training
Highly efficient and costeffective Capacity Building
Thank you for your attention
DISCUSSION
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