Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

Peter Chen

Chief, Data-Processing and Forecasting System Division Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department

ICSC-10 for THORPEX Geneva 3 -5 October 2012

SWFDP - Improving severe weather forecasting and warning services “Spending on improving weather forecasting and sharing data have high returns.” Natural Hazards UnNatural Disasters – The Economics of Effective Preveniton,WB, UN (2011)

WMO

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries

“NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.” (World Meteorological Congress, 2007 and 2011)

WMO Strategic Priorities

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Disaster Risk Reduction

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Capacity Development

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Climate change adaptation

WMO

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

SWFDP Main Goals

 Improve Severe Weather Forecasting  Improve lead-time of Warnings  Improve interaction of NMHSs with users: media, disaster management, civil protection authorities

SWFDP Regional Subprojects

 Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion)  Southwest Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington, RSMC Fiji)  Eastern Africa (ongoing, 6 countries; RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar) 

Southeast Asia (in development, 5 countries)

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Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries)

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SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process

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Global NWP

centres to provide available NWP and EPS products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame;

Regional centres

to interpret information received from global NWP centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs;

NMCs

to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; to liaise with Disaster Management, and to contribute feedback and evaluation of the project;

NMCs

have access to all products, and maintained responsibility and authority over national warnings and services.

Global Centers RSMC Pretoria NMCs Disaster Management Centres

SWFDP – Southern Africa

•16 countries, RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion, •Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF

RSMC Pretoria Webportal Since 2006

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• RSMC analysis forecast information • Guidance every day for the next 5 days • Hazards: heavy rain, strong wind, high seas and swell, severe winter weather • Guidance info made available through dedicated Webpage to NMCs • Links to RSMC La Réunion TC forecasting

SWFDP Guidance Products from RSMC Pretoria

RSMC Wellington Since 2009 SWFDP Southwest Pacific 9 Island States, RSMC Wellington, RSMC Nadi - ECMWF, Met Office UK, NWS/USA, ABoM

WMO

SWFDP – Eastern Africa – Lake Victoria (status/progress)

   Focus on:  Strong winds  Heavy precipitation  Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria)  Dry spells Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries Domains:  5E – 55E; 30N – 25S    Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material) MSG satellite products (EUMETSat) Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD   

(for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events)

31E – 36E; 2N – 4S

(for the Lake Victoria)

National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia

Started September 2011

SWFDP – Eastern Africa

6 countries, RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar-es-Salaam, Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF, DWD

RSMCNairobi Since 2011 RFSC Dar-es-Salaam since 2011

Proposed SWFDP – Southeast Asia

WMO

SWFDP – Southeast Asia status/progress

 Project develop in progress (draft Implementation Plan available at: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/CBS Reports/documents/Report_SWFDP-SeA_IP_Sep2010.pdf

)  Focus on strong winds and heavy precipitation (mainly TC-related) and associated hazards (e.g. flooding, landslides, storm surges, swell)  Domain: 10 ° S, 40 ° N, 80 ° E and 140 ° E  Global Centres: CMA, JMA and KMA (NWP guidance material, satellite products)  Regional Centres: Viet Nam (Regional Forecast Support), RSMC Tokyo and RSMC New Delhi (TC forecasting support), and HKO (training and technical support)  NMCs: Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam  Start-up awaiting establishment of RFSC Ha Noi (2013?)

SWFDP – Bay of Bengal

Focus: Coastal communities and activities

• Bangladesh • India • Maldives • Myanmar • Sri Lanka • Thailand • Bhutan (later) • Nepal (later) • Afghanistan (later) • Pakistan (later)

40E – 125 E 50 N – 10 S

Severe Weather from TCs, severe thunderstorms and monsoon:

Heavy precipitation, Strong winds Large waves / swell, Storm Surge

Improved severe weather forecasting (GDPFS), warning services to disaster management (PWS) and with agriculture (AgMet)

SWFDP links and synergies

Flash Flood Guidance HWR AgM, MMO, AeM, etc.

Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products PWS Specific Comm. Systems SMS; Weather Radio Systems; Public Web; etc.

E-mail; etc.

Radio; TV Guidance Products (risk/probability) TC Specific Communication Systems GDPFS Research Projects Satellite Imagery and Tools

SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings

• Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds, forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time) • High-impact focus (flash-flooding, damaging winds, near-shore damaging waves, landslides); • Increase synergy with Tropical Cyclone Programme • Forecast Verification (guidance, forecasts, warnings) • Phase-in other developments (“cascade” to applications, promising R&D outputs from WWRP) • Training for forecasters, PWS focal points, and disaster managers • Country-specific implementation plans • S&T gaps: – Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events – Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h) – Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations – Internet-based

SWFDP – improving warning services

• A severe weather warnings programme at every NMHSs supported by the World Weather Watch System • Warning services gaps:

– Relations with disaster management, civil protection, media – Warning criteria, SoP, reach, quality assurance – Inadequate monitoring, no objective verification – No severe weather warnings programme

SWFDP – Cooperating with Research

… incorporating promising research outputs into real-time SWFDP demonstrations …

WWRP

• GIFS - TIGGE - Tropical Cyclone track; extreme events (wind, precip, temps;

48-hour delay from real-time

) • Forecast Verification Research (e.g. SWFDP-Eastern Africa) • Nowcasting Research – very short-range forecasting (< 12h; possibly SWFDP-SeAsia, SWFDP-Ern Africa) • Sub-seasonal forecasting (e.g. SWFDP-Eastern Africa) • Public weather services & DRR, with SERA

GIFS products for SWFDP (MRI-JMA)

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SWFDP: Southern Africa Eastern Africa Southwest Pacific Southeast Asia

SWFDP - Improving severe weather forecasting and warning services

Thank you!

DPFS: Peter Chen Alice Soares PWS: Haleh Kootval Sam Muchemi AgMet: Robert Stefanski Jose Camacho