WMO

Severe Weather Forecasting Development Project (SWFDP)

Ken Mylne

Chair DPFS (Data-processing and Forecasting Systems) & Chair SWFDP SG WMO; WDS

Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries

“NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.” (World Meteorological Congress, 2007 and 2011)

Implemented through the Severe Weather Forecasting Development Project (SWFDP)

“

Implementation of a “Cascading Forecasting Process”, an approach that provides improved access to, and effective use by forecasters of existing and newly developed NWP/EPS products made available by advanced GDPFS Centres, national forecasting and warning services have improved significantly, with increased lead times and greater reliability.” (World Meteorological Congress, 2011)

SWFDP Main Goals



WMO

Improve Severe Weather Forecasting through the “ Cascading Forecasting Process ” (Global to Regional to National)  Improve lead-time of Warnings  Improve interaction of NMHSs with users  Identify areas for improvement and requirements for the Basic Systems  Improve the skill of products from WMO Operational centres through feedback

SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process

   

Global NWP

centres to provide available NWP/EPS and sat-based products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame;

Regional centres

to interpret information received from global centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs;

NMCs

to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; to liaise with user communities, and to contribute feedback and evaluation of the project;

NMCs

have access to all products, and maintained responsibility and authority over national warnings and services.

Global Centres RSMC Pretoria NMCs User communities, including Disaster Management authorities 5

     RSMC analysis forecast information Guidance every day for the next 5 days Hazards: heavy rain, strong wind, high seas and swell, severe winter weather Guidance info made available through dedicated Webpage to NMCs Links to RSMC La Réunion TC forecasting

SWFDP Guidance Products from RSMC Pretoria

WMO SWFDP – Eastern Africa – (status/progress) Lake Victoria

   Focus on:  Strong winds  Heavy precipitation  Hazardous waves  (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria) Dry spells Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries Domains:  5E – 55E; 30N – 25S 

(for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events)

31E – 36E; 2N – 4S

(for the Lake Victoria)

   Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material) MSG satellite products (EUMETSat products) Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD   National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia

Started September 2011

Vision for the SWFDP as an end-to-end, cross programme collaborative activity (led by the GDPFS)

“that engages all WMO programmes that concern the real-time prediction of hydro-meteorological hazards, through their respective technical commissions: from observations, to information exchange, to delivery of services to the public and a range of targeted applications/user sectors, education and training, capacity development and support to LDCs, and to the transfer of relevant promising

research outputs into operations

.” (World Meteorological Congress, 2011)

WMO Strategic Priorities

  

Disaster Risk Reduction Capacity Development GFCS - Climate change adaptation

SWFDP Regional Projects



WMO

Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria, RSMC-TC La R é union)  Southwest Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington, RSMC-TC Fiji)  Eastern Africa (ongoing, 6 countries; RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar) 

Southeast Asia (in development, 5 countries; RFSC Hanoi)



Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries; RSMC-TC New Delhi)

   WMO global and regional operational centres (e.g. RSMCs) 42 NMHSs of developing countries (29 of which are LDCs/SIDSs) Several WMO programmes (i.e. GDPFS, PWS, TCP, DRR, MMO, AgM, SP, ETR, CD, LDC, RP, and WWRP) and technical commissions (i.e. CBS, CAgM, CHy, JCOMM, and CAS)

SWFDP: a cross-cutting activity involving multiple TCs and Progs, concerning prediction of hydro-meteorological hazards

Flash Flood Guidance HWR AgM, MMO, AeM, WCP, etc.

Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications Feedback and Verification PWS, HWR, WCP Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products LAM & Guidance Products (risk/probability) AgM, MMO, AeM, etc.

TCP GDPFS Capacity Development (CD), including Training (ETR) Research Projects Satellite Imagery and Tools Observing and information systems

SWFDP Regional Centres



WMO

Sustain/strengthen existing RSMCs  Expanding the role of existing RSMCs-TC  Establish new regional centres     

Infrastructure (development and maintaining the Website) Global and regional guidance Global and Regional Training Desks (in addition to the annual training) National IPs (uptake of NWP/EPS and sat-based products into weather forecasting daily routines of the forecasters and user engagement) Continuous development - introduce new products and increase use of NWP/EPS in applications of meteorology (Cascading Forecasting Process)

SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings

• Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds – High-impact focus (flash-flooding, damaging winds, near-shore damaging waves, landslides); • Forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time) • Forecasting

(

GDPFS

)

, warning services

(

PWS

)

• Forecast Verification • Phase-in other developments • Training for forecasters and disaster managers • Technological gaps: – Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events – Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h) – Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations – Internet-based

SWFDP – Cooperating with Research

… incorporating promising research outputs into real-time SWFDP demonstrations …

•

WWRP

• GIFS - TIGGE - Tropical Cyclone track; extreme events (wind, precip, temps; soon to be

near-real-time

– Eastern Africa) Eastern Africa) ) • Forecast Verification Research (e.g. SWFDP • Nowcasting Research – very short-range forecasting (< 12h; possibly SWFDP-SeAsia, SWFDP-Eastern Africa) • Sub-seasonal forecasting (e.g. SWFDP • Public weather services & DRR, with SERA

GIFS products for SWFDP (MRI-JMA) SWFDP:

-

Southern Africa

-

Eastern Africa

-

Southwest Pacific

-

Southeast Asia

Global Hazard Map

Summary map to track features through days of forecast Daily map to overlay different hazards and vulnerability layers

       

Future directions and role of the SWFDP

More countries, new regions (over 100 countries: developing and least developed countries) ~ 12 RSMCs Hydro-meteorological hazards Sector-specific hazards (e.g. agriculture, marine, etc.) Beyond day-5 Vehicle for introducing promising R&D Cross-programme guidance Regular budget and extrabudgetary resourses Project Office

Ultimate Goal: Establishing a National Severe Weather Warnings Programme for every Member of WMO

www.wmo.int

Thank you for your attention

DISCUSSION

  

SWFDP – Lessons learnt

  

WMO

 Successful recipe – real benefits to developing and least developed countries  High impact, cost effective Visible operational results – increased visibility, credibility and value of meteorological services  Management framework at regional level (partnerships): collective needs, motivation, buy-in, ownership, continuous learning Accelerated technology transfer to less capable national centres through the “ Cascading Forecasting Process ” Increased role of the regional centres in downscaling and tailoring products for practical use by NMHSs Model/framework can be applied to any time-scales and a range of applications/user sectors

  

SWFDP – Resources



WMO

Regular budget: GDPFS financially supported the SWFDP-related events, including training, while a number of WMO Programmes (e.g. ETR, PWS, TCP, SAT, AgM, WWRP) have collaboratively provided limited funds to support expert participation at some of the SWFDP related meetings Support from advanced global centres that provide NWP/EPS and satellite-based products, and the backbone roles played by the regional centres are critical components for the implementation of the SWFDP, which represent in-kind contributions by WMO Members Extra-budgetary funds from WMO Members, and donor agencies (e.g. World Bank, etc.) Staff: DPFS (responsible for the overall project), with the collaboration of PWS and AgM