Transcript National Population Projections and the challenges of an ageing population Helen Bray and Shayla Goldring ONS.

National Population Projections
and the challenges of an ageing
population
Helen Bray and Shayla Goldring
ONS
National population projections - key points
• Rising fertility, rising life expectancy and record
levels of net migration
• Big increase in projected total population size
• Population ageing
Data availability
• National population projections data remain on the
GAD website:
www.gad.gov.uk
• Data to be moved to NS Online during 2008
How are assumptions decided?
• Analysis of demographic trends
• Expert advisory panel
• Formal consultation
• Assumptions agreed by ONS and devolved
administrations
UK population 1951 - 2031
75
75
Millions
70
70
Projected
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
Year
2001
2011
2021
45
2031
UK population, 1951 - 2031
75
75
Millions
70
Projected
70
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
Year
2004-based
2006-based
2021
45
2031
Actual and projected TFR, UK, 1951 - 2031
3.00
3.00
Assumed
Children per woman
2.75
2.75
TFR
2.50
2.50
2.25
2.25
Replacement level
2.00
1.75
1.50
1951
2.00
1.75
1961
1971
1981
1991
Year
2001
2011
2021
1.50
2031
Period expectation of life at birth (EOLB), UK,
1981 - 2081
92
92
Assumptions
90
90
Females
88
88
86
86
EOLB (years)
Males
84
84
82
82
80
80
78
78
76
76
74
74
72
72
70
1981
1991
2001
2011
2021
2031
Year
2041
2051
2061
2071
70
2081
Annual mortality improvement, 2006 - 2007
UK male/female comparison
Males
7
Females
6
Percentage reduction
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
-1
Age
60
70
80
90
Period and cohort expectations of life at birth,
UK, 1981 - 2056
100
100
98
Females cohort
96
96
Males cohort
94
92
94
92
90
EOLB (years)
98
Females period
88
90
88
86
Males period
86
84
84
82
82
80
80
78
78
76
76
74
74
72
72
70
1981
70
1991
2001
2011
2021
2031
Year (period)/Year of birth (cohort)
2041
2051
thousands
Actual and projected net migration, UK, 1991 2031
300
300
250
250
200
200
Net migration
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
1991
-50
1996
2001
2006
2011
Year
2016
2021
2026
0
2031
-50
Actual and projected UK births and deaths,
1951 - 2056
1.1
1.1
Millions
Projected
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
Births
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
Deaths
0.5
0.5
0.4
1951
0.4
1971
1991
2011
Year
2031
2051
Projected components of UK population change,
1991 - 2031
300
300
thousands
Natural change
250
250
200
200
Net migration
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
1991
-50
1996
2001
2006
2011
Year
2016
2021
2026
0
2031
-50
Total UK population, variant projections,
1996 - 2056
92
92
Millions
Projected
88
88
84
84
80
80
76
76
72
72
68
68
64
64
60
60
56
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
2046
Year
Principal
Migration variants
High/Low combination variants
Mortality variants
Fertility variants
2051
56
2056
UK population pyramid, 2006
100+
90
80
Males
Females
70
Age
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
500
400
300
200
100
0
100
Population (thousands)
200
300
400
500
UK population pyramid, 2006 and 2031
100+
Males
Females
90
80
2006
2031
2006
2031
70
Age
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
500
400
300
200
100
0
100
Population (thousands)
200
300
400
500
number of working age per person of state
pension age
Projected elderly demographic support ratio, UK,
2006 - 2056
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.8
with changes to SPA
1.6
1.6
no change to SPA
1.4
1.4
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
year
2036
2041
2046
2051
2056
number of working age per person of state
pension age
Projected demographic support ratio, UK, 2006 2056
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
Principal
2.7
2.7
High migration
2.6
2.6
Low migration
2.5
2.5
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
year
2036
2041
2046
2051
2056
Percentage of the UK population aged 65
and over, variant projections, 1981 - 2056
30
30
Percentage
Projected
28
28
26
26
24
24
22
22
20
20
18
18
16
16
14
1981
14
1991
2001
2011
2021
2031
2041
Year
Principal
Fertility variants
Old/Young combination variants
Mortality variants
Migration variants
2051
Challenges of an ageing population Outline
• Background
• Implications of population ageing
–
–
–
–
–
–
Health
Social Services
Housing
Labour Force
Pensions
Well being
• Future work
Background
Population age structure, UK
Percentage
100%
85+
65-84
80%
16-64
0-15
60%
40%
20%
0%
1971
1981
1991
2001
Year
Source: ONS: Censuses 1971-2001;
National Population Projections 2011-2031
2011
2021
2031
Background
Italy
Germany
Spain
Austria
Country by rank order in 2031
Percentage of population
aged 60 and over,
2004- 2031
Greece
eu15
Finland
Portugal
Belgium
France
UK
Netherlands
Denmark
Sw eden
2031
Luxembourg
2004
Ireland
Source: Eurostat 2004 based
population projections
0
10
20
Percentage
30
40
Implications
Ageing will have an impact on the following areas:
– Health – increasing demand for GP and hospital care
– Social Services – increasing demand for long term care
– Housing – ‘new homes must cater for ageing’ 26/1/2008
– Labour force – increasing number of older workers
– Pensions – increasing state pensions bill
– Well being/social cohesion
..however, the size of the effects are interrelated
with changing trends in living arrangements,
partnership status and also policy intervention
Living arrangements
People living alone, by sex and age: 1986/87 and
2005, Great Britain
Men
Women
Age
75 and over
65–74
45–64
25–44
1986/87
1986/87
16–24
2005
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005
0
10
Percentages
Source: ONS: General Household Survey (Longitudinal)
20
30
40
Percentages
50
60
70
Partnership status
Females aged 65 and over by partnership status,
2003-2031, England and Wales
8,000
2003
2011
2021
6,000
2031
4,000
2,000
0
Total
Married
Cohabiting
Never
married
alone
Previously
married
alone
Source: ONS: 2003 based Marital Status Projections 2003-2031
Completed family size
Percentage of women with no children or only one
child at age 45, by birth cohort, England and Wales
Percentage
50
One child
Childless
40
30
20
10
0
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
Year of birth (woman)
Source: ONS: Vital events registration data and General Household Survey data.
Employment
Average age of the working age population (16SPA), 1971-2031, UK
Age
60
50
40
30
20
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
2021
2031
Year
Upper quartile
Median
Lower quartile
Note: Includes changes to State Pension Age
Source: ONS: Mid-year population estimates, 1971-2006;
National Population Projections 2011-2031
Summary
• UK not ageing as fast as EU on average
• Still important to prepare for larger numbers and
greater proportionate share of population at older
ages in UK
• Need for more information and also co-ordinated
and coherent reporting
ONS Future work on ageing
• Quantifying the demographic drivers of ageing
• Inequalities in age at retirement
• How are trends in family formation and dissolution
likely to affect the proportion of family members
providing care?
Other parts of ONS
• How much are we saving for retirement? Are we
saving enough?
• Health at older ages
Contacts
• National projections and the ageing population
– NPP Branch – [email protected] – 020 7533 5294
– or
– [email protected] – 020 7533 5222
– Ageing Unit – [email protected] –01329 813212
– Morbidity and health care
- [email protected] – 01633 455865
– Pensions Analysis Unit
- [email protected]–01633 816198