Transcript Slide 1

Sustaining and Developing
Community Resilience
Scottish Futures Forum: 25th January 2010
Budgetary Scenario 2010-15: Threat or Opportunity
Colin Mair, CEO, Improvement Service
Scope
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Future pressures
The outcome focus
Community resilience and capacity in context
Going forward
Scottish Block Finance & Demand 2010/11 – 2013/14 (% real terms)
10
8
6
5
4
0
Financial
Projections
0
-2
Demand
-4
-5
-6
-8
-10
-12
-15
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
I.S.
Growth Forecast
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3.25% per annum 2011/12 - 2013/14
½% above average 2000 - 2007
70% of growth from private consumption
Unemployment; real wages; credit conditions; house
values; public sector retrenchment
• 1% forecast error = £10 billion off public spending
Demography Headline Projections
• Scotland’s 65+ population projected to rise by 21%
between 2006 – 2016
• By 2031 it will have risen by 62%
• For the 85+ age group specifically, a 38% rise is projected
for 2016
• By 2031, the increase is 144%
• The ‘dependency ratio’ sharply increases: 20% by 2020
Demand Projections
• Services for older people: 2% real growth to stand still
(Kings fund; Sutherland review)
• Services for children: policy priorities & increased spend
on children with learning support needs/special needs: 3 –
4% per annum
• Impacts of recession: education; social work; policing &
community safety; business support; housing; leisure, etc
• Overall 2% real terms per annum
Scottish Block Finance & Demand 2009/10 – 2017/18 (% real terms)
16
15
14
12
10
IFS
10
8
Demand
6
5
4
2
0
0
-2.04
-5
-5.7
-9.1
-10
-10
-11.2
-12.07
-12.9
17
/1
8
16
/1
7
15
/1
6
14
/1
5
13
/1
4
12
/1
3
9/
10
10
/1
1
11
/1
2
-15
-9.5
Implications
• Our current pattern of services and spending are
unsustainable against future finance and demand
• The historic pattern failed those with the highest need
The overarching commitments to early intervention;
equally well and anti-poverty challenge historic service
models anyway
• We need to fundamentally rethink how we deliver and
what we are delivering
Long-Term Strategic Issues
• Improved outcomes while minimising demand and cost,
therefore
• Prevention: Early intervention; co-production and
communal capacity
• Fundamentally rethinking entitlements, business models
and resource consumption
• PSR: Rationalisation and integration at local level
The National Performance Framework
in Scotland
• Purpose: Sustainable economic development
• Strategic objectives: Healthier, wealthier, fairer, smarter,
greener
• National outcomes: 15 derived from purpose and
objectives
• SOA: Priority local outcomes given context, circumstances
and national outcomes
What Do We Mean By Outcomes?
• The quality of life of individuals, households and
communities
• The opportunities in life of individuals, households and
communities
• The living context of individuals, households and
communities
The ‘why’ of public service provision
Developing The Outcome Focus
• We can’t do outcomes to people
• Past patterns of success and failure in health, education
and community safety reflect tacit dependence and
frustration of co-production
• We need to invest in peoples ability to co-produce
• This may result in redefining the boundaries of the state
and individual and community rights and responsibilities
4 Propositions
• Communal capacity and confidence underpins all other
outcomes
• Public service monopoly approaches to wellbeing issues
do not work
• Social capital mobilisation will become progressively
more important as public spending declines
• Community empowerment = Economic and social
equalisation (not simply tools and methodologies)
The New Culture
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Self sufficiency……………..interdependency
Service focussed…………..outcome focussed
Fragmented…………………integrated
Agency focus……………….customer focus
Government capacity………community capacity
Going Forwards
• Spending Review; budgeting and ‘core business’
• Protecting fragile flowers: Retrenchment and public
values
• Moving from ‘initiatives’ to core management approach
• Removing negative demand by focussing on outcomes