Transcript Document

SURVEYING EXPO | 25 July 2014
David Sykes
Senior Demographic Researcher
Looking back 40 years: Melbourne
1971
2011
2.4 million
4.1 million
33% / 59% / 8%
22% / 65% / 13%
Male: 68
Female: 75
Male: 79
Female: 84
33%
14%
No of containers at Port of
Melbourne
Few – Swanston
Dock opened in
1969
2.4 million
Average house price
$14,800 (mean)
$500,000 (median)
Average house price
(Port Melbourne)
25% below metro
average (1981)
85% above metro
average
Population of Melton
6,000
100,000
Population
Age mix
(0-17, 18-64, 65+)
Life expectancy
Manufacturing job share
Changing distribution of change
Melbourne – 80’s to early 90’s
Melbourne – 2000s
3
Total dwelling approvals 2001-2013
NORTHERN
19%
WESTERN
18%
22% CENTRAL
EASTERN
15%
SOUTHERN
27%
3
Annual dwelling approvals – change over a decade
GREATER
MELBOURNE
NORTHERN
+47%
EASTERN
WESTERN
-4%
+17%
+63%
+18%
CENTRAL
SOUTHERN
-11%
3
Changing dwelling types
Source: ABS Building Approvals
3
Victorian population facts as at 2013
Total Population:
Annual growth:
5.79 million
107,900 (1.9% p.a.)
3
Victorian population facts as at 2013
Total Population:
Annual growth:
5.79 million
107,900 (1.9% p.a.)
Net overseas migration:
62,300
Net interstate migration:
7,500
Natural increase:
38,100
3
Some trends are unmistakeable
1. Strong growth
2. Urbanisation
3. Changing age structure
2
Projections driven by strong natural increase and
overseas migration
Categories of net overseas migration
Net Overseas Migration, by major groupings and visa, Victoria 2010-11
Other
Permanent
Temporary
80%+ of Victoria’s growth in Melbourne
+4.5m
+1.9m
+3.6m (82%)
+1.6m (80%)
Source: ABS 2013; DTPLI 2014
Historic
Projected
5
Total population change by LGA, 2011-31
Average annual growth rate by LGA, 2011-31
Proportion of population aged 0-19 years, 2031
VIF2014: Proportion of projected population aged 0 to 19 years by LGA, 2031
Proportion
35% and above
30% to 35%
25% to 30%
20% to 25%
15% to 20%
Less than 15%
SEE INSET
Proportion of population aged 65+ years, 2031
VIF2014: Proportion of projected population aged 65 years and over by LGA, 2031
Proportion
35% and above
30% to 35%
25% to 30%
20% to 25%
15% to 20%
Less than 15%
SEE INSET
Households by Type, 2011-51
May not sum to 100% due to rounding
Household Types, 2011 – 2031
Port Phillip (C)
Female lone
person
Male lone
person
+0.1%
+1.2%
19%
One
parent
family
21%
+0.6% 6%
11% -0.6%
15%
Group
households and
other families
-0.2%
Couple family
with children
28%
-1.0%
Couple family
without children
Household Types, 2011 – 2031
Whitehorse (C)
One
parent
family
Male lone
person
-0.5%
10%
+0.3%
9%
+0.6%
Couple family
with children
Female lone
person
16%
-0.7% 34%
7%
-0.5%
Group
households and
other families
24%
+0.8%
Couple family
without children
Household Types, 2011 – 2031
Whittlesea (C)
One
parent
family
-0.0%
Male lone
person
13%
+0.3%
Couple family
with children
-1.8%
7%
44%
Female lone
person
8%+1.5%
-0.4%
4%
24%
+0.5%
Group
households and
other families
Couple family
without children
Certainty and uncertainty
Uncertain
Long term
change
Will a 60 year old behave in 2034
as a 60 year old behaves in 2014?
Future levels of overseas migration
When Melb’s pop reaches 5m / 6m
How population will change
in Individual LGAs
Most pop growth will be in cities –
Melb’s pop will reach 5 m / 6m
The number of 60 year olds in 2034
Certain
Short term
change
Population will grow
Population will age
Certainty and uncertainty
3
Certainty and uncertainty
Projection horizon
3
Certainty and uncertainty
1971
www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/
3
Certainty and uncertainty
1971
www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/
2011
www.themotorreport.com.au/51241/holden-commodore-ve-ii-ss-v-redline-editionsedan-road-test-review
3
Certainty and uncertainty
1971
www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/
2051?
2011
www.themotorreport.com.au/51241/holden-commodore-ve-ii-ss-v-redline-editionsedan-road-test-review
www.digitaltrends.com/features/
faster-forward-imagining-thefuture-car-of-2050/#!9RImc
3
Certainty and uncertainty
1971
www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/
2051?
2011
www.themotorreport.com.au/51241/holden-commodore-ve-ii-ss-v-redline-editionsedan-road-test-review
www.digitaltrends.com/features/
faster-forward-imagining-thefuture-car-of-2050/#!9RImc
3
Looking back 40 years,
looking forward 40 years: Melbourne
1971
2011
2051
2.4 million
4.1 million
7.8 million
33% / 59% / 8%
22% / 65% / 13%
21% / 58% / 21%
Male: 68
Female: 75
Male: 79
Female: 84
Male: 88
Female: 90
33%
14%
?
No of containers at Port of
Melbourne
Few – Swanston
Dock opened in
1969
2.4 million
8 million?
(2035)
Average house price
$14,800 (mean)
$500,000 (median)
?
Average house price
(Port Melbourne)
25% below metro
average (1981)
85% above metro
average
?
Population of Melton
6,000
100,000
350,000-400,000k?
Population
Age mix
(0-17, 18-64, 65+)
Life expectancy
Manufacturing job share
SURVEYING EXPO | 25 July 2014
David Sykes
Senior Demographic Researcher