Failure to Complete College: Implications for California’s Grim Economic Future

Michael W. Kirst Professor Emeritus Stanford School of Education

 California’s postsecondary attainment and economic base projected to decline.

 Community college lack of completion is crucial – enroll 64% of total postsecondary.

 Community college completion 10% two year, 26% transfer (overall 27% including certificates) – PPIC, Sacramento State).

 Latino and central valley college education gap must be closed.

 K-12 public schools are 49% Latino and growing; 79% of Latinos who attend postsecondary are at community colleges.

 Community colleges must move from just access and low cost to improved pupil outcomes. – “Student Churn Economic Model”  Community college remediation rates about 70% from high school (Chancellor says 90% math, 75% English overall)  California 4 year universities degree completion at or above national average.

 L.A. Community Colleges have 4 times African American and 3 times Latino students as U.C. system combined.

Funding per student – 2005 (state general fund, property tax, student fees)

UC $19,883 CSU National CCC K-12 CCC $10,623 $8,500 (est.) $7,023 $4,559

College Participation by Race/Ethnicity

Racial/Ethnic Group Asian / Pacific Islander White Black Latino Percent of 18-24 Year Olds in College Percent of Adults Ages 25+ in College 60% 43% 32% 22% Source: US Census 2000, Summary File 4, Table PCT63 9.1% 5.8% 8.8% 5.4%

Race/Ethnic Gaps in Educational Attainment Bode Poorly for California’s Workforce Percent of Adults Ages 25 to 64 With an Associates Degree or Higher Projected Change in the Number of 25 to 64 Year Olds from 2000 to 2020 Whites African Americans Hispanics, Latinos Native Americans Asians, Pac. Is.

0% 12.4% 19.3% 27.4% 40.2% 52.9% -1,309,049 African Americans Hispanics, Latinos Native Americans Asians, Pac. Is.

Whites 414,406 226,439 1,081,504 30% 60% -2,000,000 0 4,574,193 5,000,000 California State University, Sacramento, 2006

Racial/Ethnic Gaps in Preparation Asian/Pacific Islander White Black Hispanic or Latino 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Enrollment in Advanced Math Courses as a Share of 11th-12th Grade Enrollment, 2005-06 Share of HS Grads Completing A-G, 2004-05

Regional Gaps in Preparation San Francisco Bay Los Angeles County Orange County Monterey Bay San Diego/Imperial Central Coast Sacramento-Tahoe Upper Sacramento Valley Inyo-Mono Inland Empire North San Joaquin Valley Superior California North Coast South San Joaquin Valley 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Enrollment in Advanced Math Courses as a Share of 11th-12th Grade Enrollment, 2005-06 Share of HS Grads Completing A-G, 2004-05 California State University, Sacramento, 2006 45%

California’s Per Capita Income will Fall Below U.S. Average if Race/Ethnic Education Gaps Remain 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 124.0% 118.1% US Average 70% 1960 California State University, Sacramento, 2006 1980 2000 Given the Current Disparities in Educational Attainment and Projected Growth by Race/Ethnicity, California’s Income Will Fall Below the U.S Average by 2020 – Unless Race/Ethnic Gaps are Closed 108.6% 95.5% 2020

Completion of Degrees/Certificates

+ Rank 11 th on 6-year graduation rate of full-time freshmen at universities • Does not include part-time students, or students who begin in community college Rank 47 th in the number of BA degrees per 100 undergraduates enrolled Rank 46 th in degrees/certificates awarded per 100 students enrolled in 2-year colleges California State University, Sacramento, 2006

Participation in College

+ Among top states in % of population enrolled  Traditional college-age: 18 to 24  Working adults: 25-64 Very low rates of patterns that lead to completion  40 th in high school grads direct to college  48 th in share of students enrolled full-time Huge gaps in college participation California State University, Sacramento, 2006

Selected Quotes

“The one thing – it’s the good thing about community college, I would say forethought, you know?” – college advisor – is that a student can come here with absolutely no  “This is the thing. I’ve always done well in grammar, and I’ve always done well in English. I got As throughout high school, and I was placed in the lowest English [in the community college].” – community college student

Findings

Current State Policies Perpetuate Disjuncture between K-12 and Postsecondary Education:  Multiple and confusing assessments;  Disconnected curricula;  Lack of connected, longitudinal, data;  Few K-16 accountability mechanisms;  Insufficient K-16 governance mechanisms.

Findings

Student, Parent, and K-12 Educator Understandings about College Preparation:  Students’ college knowledge is vague and varies by student group;  Teachers’ college knowledge is incomplete and they play a major role;  College resources and connections with colleges are inadequate;  College preparatory opportunities are inequitable; and,  There is a lack of college counseling for all students.

Policy Implications for Community Colleges

   Track signals to high school students regarding college expectations and requirements Track more carefully the signals students receive concerning placement Send clearer signals about realistic transfer possibilities

Policy Implications for Community Colleges

 Create initiatives to overcome the lack of high school academic preparation  Review the K-12 standards and assessments  Consider CSU augmented CST test  Collect more data on specific populations as they move in and through colleges

Policy Implications for Community Colleges

 Link junior/senior year of high school to initial year of college  Expand dual enrollment to include more prospective community college students  Create a continuous policy-making apparatus for K-16