Transcript 28th Session of the WG on Trade and Transfer of Technology Geneva – 14 July 2009 The linkage between technology transfer and productivity.

28th Session of the WG on Trade and Transfer of Technology
Geneva – 14 July 2009
The linkage between technology
transfer and productivity gains in
agriculture
Andrea Sonnino
FAO -Research and Extension Division
Rome, Italy
Yield increase of selected crops in
developing countries
(% over previous period)
400
350
300
Cassava
Maize
Wheat
Rice (paddy)
Sorghum
250
200
150
100
50
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Food production increased faster than
population over the past 30 years
1990=100
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Food production
(world)
Food per capita
(world)
Food production
(Dev. C.)
1969/71
Food per capita
(Dev. C.)
1999/01
Development of agricultural
production
• The Green Revolution
allowed to feed 6.4 billion
people,
• improved the livelihoods
of several million farmers
• saved land
• increased per capita food
availability > 18% from mid
’90s.
•
•
•
•
But:
1,020 million still undernourished
1,2 billion absolute poor
Vast areas excluded
Natural resources base eroded
Food demand is growing as result of
growth of population, per capita food
consumption...
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
+38%
+11%
population
(million people)
food
consumption
(Kcal/pers/day)
+70%
food demand
(million tons)
1970
2000
2050
... and a shift towards a more nutritious
and balanced diet
Food consumption per person and day
in developing countries
kcal/person/day
100%
Other (Milk, etc.)
Pulses
Roots and Tubers
Meat
Sugar
Vegetable oils
Coarse grains
Wheat
Rice
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1964/66
1997/99
The growing food demand will be
met mainly by increased yields
Sources of growth in crop
production (%)
100%
Area
80%
60%
Cropping
intensity
Yield
40%
20%
0%
1961-2005
1999-2030
Leveraging existing assets
and knowledge base
• Improving
Research Systems
• Modernizing the
Technical
Advisory Services
• Building research
– extension –
farmers linkages
• Exploiting the
potential of ICTs
• Bridging yield gaps
• Protecting yield
gains
• Minimizing postharvest losses
• Diversifying and
adding value to
agricultural products
• Improving access to
market
Exploitable yield gaps:
actual versus obtainable yields
t/ha
Wheat (high input, suitable land, rain-fed)
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Potential
Actual
source: FAO (2002)
Generating knowledge to improve
productivity and sustainability
• Exploiting the molecular
biology advances to
improve plant varieties
• Genetic improvement of
animal and fish
• Good agronomic
practices to manage
water availability and
soil fertility
• Integrated control of
animal and plant pest
and diseases
• Redirecting R&D
towards the needs of the
poor
• Enhancing yield
ceilings
• managing the natural
resources base
• promoting adaptation
to climate change and
disaster preparedness
• seeking congruence
of productivity,
profitability and equity
More investments in
Agricultural R&D are needed
Spending in Agricultural R&D
% of Agric. GDP
Million US$
3500
6
3000
2500
2000
4
1500
2
1000
500
0
Developed Developing
countries countries
Public sector Private sector
0
Asia others
India
Brazil
SS Africa
China
L. America others
WANA
Insufficient and unstable
investments in R&D are only a
part of the problem:
• Full participation of
farmers
• coherent research and
extension policies
• enabling regulations
• strengthened institutions
• skilled human capacities
• adequate infrastructures
• Capacity building
Summary and conclusions
• Message 1: Technical innovation in
agriculture allowed to feed the growing
population, but leaving some problems
unresolved
• Message 2: Agricultural production should
increase 70% by 2050 to meet the increasing
food demand, by using an eroded resources
base, and facing environmental challenges
• Message 3: this target can be achieved
mainly by rising crop yields:
– making available to farmers existing technologies
– developing new technologies
– improving innovation systems
• Message 4: sustained investments and
capacity building are crucial to exploit the
potential of traditional and new knowledge