Transcript International Workshop on Population Projections using Census Data 14 – 16 January 2013 Beijing, China.

International Workshop
on
Population Projections
using Census Data
14 – 16 January 2013
Beijing, China
Session VII:
Presentation of the results of
projections
• Guidelines and tools for the preparation of
results
• Presentation of country projections by
participants
How to present the results of
population projections
• General guidelines – how to get the message
cross
• Preparing a report
• Visual aids
• Presentation Media
Population Projection – Presenting Results
• Large amounts of data
• Published in a number of different ways
– A press release
– An executive summary
– A full report, sometimes with a number of annexes.
Getting the message cross
Statistics
• Who is your target audience?
Press release
Technical report
Others
Government
???
General public
experts
Getting the Message Cross
• Why should my audience want to know/read
about this?
– Internet age, short attention span
– The “snack culture”
Telling a Statistical Story
• Is there a story?
– What have you found?
– How does it impact daily life?
– Stories:
• Social security not sustainable for the long term
• World population growth will occur in urban areas
– Non-stories:
X The report is published today...
X Population projection is prepared …
Telling a Statistical Story
• Compelling headlines
– The highest since, the lowest since …
– Something new
– The first time, a record, a continuing trend
– Examples:
• Gasoline prices hit 10-year high
• Crime down for a third year in a row
• July oil prices levelled off in August
Compelling Headlines
Telling a Statistical Story
• Write like a journalist – the ‘inverted’ pyramid
Right-side-up
Introduction,
purpose of study
Data, assumptions,
analysis
Conclusions/findings
Inverted
Main findings
Details about the
study
Data, assumptions,
analysis
Telling a Statistical Story
• Make the number “stick”
– Don’t peel off the onion, get to the point
– Avoid proportions in bracket
• Make the number “stick” (cont.)
– Avoid changing denominators
– Reduce big numbers to understandable levels
Technical Report - Elements
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Title page
Table of contents
Motivation and objectives
Data source and assumptions
Findings
Conclusions and recommendations
Technical Report - Canada
Technical Report - Canada
Visual Aids
• Charts
• Maps
• Other?
Explaining Assumptions
Source: US Census Bureau
Projected vs Observed
Projections by scenario
Estimated and projected world population according to different variants, 1950-2100 (billions)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
Showing the Contrast
Population of Europe, Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa (millions)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
Pyramid
Female
Male
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
Age
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
600
400
200
0
200
400
600
Pyramid - 2 in 1
Pyramid - Animated
Thematic Maps
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the
2011 Revision. New York 2012
Interactive Maps
Source: http://www.planning.sa.gov.au/instantatlas/ageingatlas/atlas.html
Presenting results - Media
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Printed documents
Online presence
PowerPoint
Movies (YouTube, etc.)
Blogs
Social media
Presentation of country projection by
participants
Thank you