Local estimates of housing requirements, Neil McDonald
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Transcript Local estimates of housing requirements, Neil McDonald
Local estimates of
housing requirements
Neil McDonald
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The smaller the geography the bigger the
problems
Proportionately bigger uncertainties in source data.
Added dimensions:
National population projections driven by births, death and net
international flows. Local projections have same drivers plus:
Uncertainty on origin and destination of international flows
Uncertainty on flows to and from the rest of the UK – which tend to
be largest driver of local authority population growth
Data sources for both pose major difficulties.
Between 2011 and 2012-based projections more than a third of
authorities had change of more than 20% in projected
household increase for 2011-21
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Flows within the UK
London classic case: net
outflow 2007-12 only 55%
of net outflow in previous
five years.
ONS bases internal
migration projections on
5 years to base date.
Correcting to more
typical 10 year period
can change projected
population increase by a
third or more
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Limitations of trend-based projections
Trend-based approach builds assumes past can and
should be perpetuated:
Previous status as growth area can distort projections
No account taken of feasibility of accommodating
continuation of past trends e.g. assumption some London
boroughs will be able to accommodate 40% household
growth over 25 years.
Even if it is feasible for past trends to be perpetuated, is that
desirable? Current approach to local plans provides very
little scope for planning on a larger geography.