Transcript Local estimates of housing requirements, Neil McDonald

Local estimates of
housing requirements
Neil McDonald
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The smaller the geography the bigger the
problems
 Proportionately bigger uncertainties in source data.
 Added dimensions:
 National population projections driven by births, death and net
international flows. Local projections have same drivers plus:
Uncertainty on origin and destination of international flows
Uncertainty on flows to and from the rest of the UK – which tend to
be largest driver of local authority population growth
 Data sources for both pose major difficulties.
 Between 2011 and 2012-based projections more than a third of
authorities had change of more than 20% in projected
household increase for 2011-21
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Flows within the UK
 London classic case: net
outflow 2007-12 only 55%
of net outflow in previous
five years.
 ONS bases internal
migration projections on
5 years to base date.
 Correcting to more
typical 10 year period
can change projected
population increase by a
third or more
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Limitations of trend-based projections
 Trend-based approach builds assumes past can and
should be perpetuated:
 Previous status as growth area can distort projections
 No account taken of feasibility of accommodating
continuation of past trends e.g. assumption some London
boroughs will be able to accommodate 40% household
growth over 25 years.
 Even if it is feasible for past trends to be perpetuated, is that
desirable? Current approach to local plans provides very
little scope for planning on a larger geography.