Transcript UNM BBER Data Users Conference November 14th, 2013 NMDWS Industry & Occupation Projections Why Do We Make Projections?

UNM BBER Data Users
Conference
November 14th, 2013
NMDWS Industry &
Occupation Projections
Why Do We Make Projections?
Who Uses Industry And Occupational Projections?
-High school and college students, their parents and teachers to learn about the available
jobs in their area,
-Career changers, career development specialists and guidance counselors,
-State workforce agencies to match employment with education and economic
development efforts,
-Policymakers to best invest tax dollars to training,
-Education and training officials to make decisions about education and training policy,
funding, and program offerings,
-Other federal agencies, researchers, and academics use the projections to understand
trends in the economy and labor market.
How often are they updated?
-The National projections are updated every two years.
-New Mexico and several other states update the industry and occupational projections
every year for all areas.
How Are Projections Developed?
Nearly Every State and 4 Territories
Develop Projections Using The Same
Modeling Program
Inputs To The Models
- NEW MEXICO QCEW INDUSTRY
EMPLOYMENT TIME SERIES
- NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT
TIME SERIES
- NATIONAL VARIABLES
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Composite Index - 10 Leading Indicators
Average Weekly Hours in Manufacturing
Average Weekly Initial UI Claims
Manufacturer's New orders - Cons. Goods
Vendor Performance
Manufacturer's New Orders - non-Defense cap goods
Building Permits - New Housing
S & P 500
Money Supply (M2)
Consumer Expectations
Light Vehicle Sales
NAPM: US Mfg Composite
Total Business Inventories
CPI - Urban: All items
Total Housing Starts - Private
PPI - Finished Goods - Except Food
Total Non-Farm Employment
Total non-Farm Employment - Goods Producing
Interest Rate Spread
- NEW MEXICO VARIABLES
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
New Mexico Population
New Mexico Employment
NM Median Household Income
NM Per Capita Income
New Mexico Unemployment Rate
NM Natural Gas Marketed Production
NM Building Permits
Start By Projecting Industry Growth
• Long Term Industry Projections – are for a tenyear horizon. Current cycle is 2011-2021.
• Short Term Industry projections – are for a
two-year horizon. Current cycle is 2012-2014.
Add All The Inputs To Projections Models….
Project-o-matic with shiftshare; time-series; and
OLS regression models
…Industry
Projections
come out here!
Inputs plus
variables go in
here...
New Mexico LTIP 2011 - 2021
New Mexico Industry Projections 2011 - 2021
2011
2021
Annual
Industry
Industry
Estimated
Projected
Number
Growth
Title
Code
Employment
Employment
Change
Rate
Manufacturing
Ag, Forest, Fishing & Hunting
Management of Companies
Information
Utilities
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Transportation & Warehousing
Wholesale Trade
Other Services
Government
Professional, Scientific & Technical
Construction
Administrative & Support Services
Mining
Retail Trade
Accommodation & Food Service
Educational Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Total All
310000
110000
550000
510000
220000
520000
530000
710000
480000
420000
810000
900000
540000
230000
560000
210000
440000
720000
610000
620000
000000
29,560
10,350
5,070
13,450
4,370
21,000
9,640
12,540
18,040
21,000
20,640
90,100
53,570
42,200
41,640
21,250
90,210
79,940
80,200
118,040
851,840
28,590
9,830
5,210
13,660
4,640
21,800
10,960
14,600
20,250
23,610
23,550
93,660
58,790
47,550
48,080
28,250
104,310
97,120
100,340
146,190
971,680
-970
-520
140
210
270
800
1,330
2,050
2,200
2,610
2,920
3,550
5,230
5,350
6,440
7,000
14,100
17,180
20,140
28,160
119,840
-0.3%
-0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
0.6%
0.4%
1.3%
1.5%
1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
0.4%
0.9%
1.2%
1.4%
2.9%
1.5%
2.0%
2.3%
2.2%
1.3%
Employment Growth, 2011 - 2021
28,160
Health Care and Social Assistance
20,140
Educational Services
17,180
Accommodation and Food Service
14,100
Retail Trade
7,000
Mining
6,440
Administrative and Support Services
Construction
5,350
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
5,230
3,550
Government
2,920
Other Services
2,610
Wholesale Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
2,200
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
2,050
1,330
Real Estate, Rental and Leasing
800
Finance and Insurance
Utilities
270
Information
210
Management of Companies
140
Ag, Forest, Fishing and Hunting
-520
Manufacturing
-970
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Growth Change, 2011 - 2021
2.9%
Mining
2.3%
Educational Services
2.2%
Health Care & Social Assistance
2.0%
Accommodation & Food Service
1.5%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Retail Trade
1.5%
Administrative & Support Services
1.4%
1.3%
Other Services
1.3%
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Construction
1.2%
Wholesale Trade
1.2%
Transportation & Warehousing
1.2%
0.9%
Professional, Scientific & Technical
0.6%
Utilities
Government
0.4%
Finance & Insurance
0.4%
0.3%
Management of Companies
Information
0.2%
Manufacturing
-0.3%
-0.5%
Ag, Forest, Fishing & Hunting
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2011
1.2% 2.5%
2.4%
Share % Of Each
Industry
0.5%
5.0%
3.5%
10.6%
2.5%
9.4%
10.6%
1.5%
2.1%
13.9%
1.6%
6.3%
9.4%
2.5%
4.9%
1.1%
0.6%
Ag, Forest, Fishing and Hunting
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate, Rental and Leasing
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Management of Companies
Administrative and Support Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Service
Other Services
Government
2021
2.9%
1.0%
2.4%
0.5%
4.9%
2.9%
9.6%
10.0%
2.4%
10.7%
1.5%
2.1%
15.0%
1.4%
6.1%
10.3%
4.9%
2.2%
1.1%
0.5%
New Mexico STIP 2012 - 2014
New Mexico Industry Projections 2012-2014
Industry
Title
Industry
Code
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Management of Companies
Utilities
Other Services (Except Government)
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation
Information
Wholesale Trade
Finance & Insurance
Manufacturing
Administrative & Support Services
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing
Professional, Scientific, & Technical
Transportation & Warehousing
Educational Services
Government
Construction
Retail Trade
Mining
Accommodation & Food Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Total All Industries
110000
550000
220000
810000
710000
510000
420000
520000
310000
560000
530000
540000
480000
610000
900000
230000
440000
210000
720000
620000
000000
2012
Estimated
Employment
11,400
4,970
4,430
21,180
12,880
13,500
21,750
21,150
29,870
40,700
10,050
52,420
19,230
81,700
90,190
42,900
93,520
24,540
82,310
121,040
798,080
2014
Projected
Employment
10,600
4,970
4,460
21,220
13,050
13,720
22,040
21,470
30,230
41,080
10,510
52,930
19,770
82,660
91,900
44,830
95,450
27,100
85,120
126,180
819,270
Number
Change
-800
0
30
40
170
220
290
320
360
380
460
510
540
960
1,710
1,930
1,930
2,560
2,810
5,140
21,190
Percent
Change
-7.0%
0.0%
0.7%
0.2%
1.3%
1.6%
1.3%
1.5%
1.2%
0.9%
4.6%
1.0%
2.8%
1.2%
1.9%
4.5%
2.1%
10.4%
3.4%
4.2%
2.7%
Industry Growth, 2012 - 2014
5,140
Health Care & Social Assistance
2,810
Accommodation & Food Services
2,560
Mining
Retail Trade
1,930
Construction
1,930
1,710
Government
960
Educational Services
Transportation & Warehousing
540
Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services
510
460
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing
Administrative & Support Services
380
Manufacturing
360
Finance & Insurance
320
Wholesale Trade
290
220
Information
170
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation
Other Services (Except Government)
40
Utilities
30
0
Management of Companies
-800
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Growth Change, 2011 - 2021
10.4%
Mining
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing
4.6%
Construction
4.5%
4.2%
Health Care & Social Assistance
3.4%
Accommodation & Food Services
2.8%
Transportation & Warehousing
2.1%
Retail Trade
1.9%
Government
1.6%
Information
1.5%
Finance & Insurance
Wholesale Trade
1.3%
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation
1.3%
Manufacturing
1.2%
Educational Services
1.2%
Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services
1.0%
Administrative & Support Services
0.9%
0.7%
Utilities
0.2%
Other Services (Except Government)
Management of Companies
-7.0%
-8.0%
0.0%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Job Recovery Based On 2011-2021 Industry
Projections
880,000
Peak employment
in Dec 2007 at
855,300
860,000
Intersect in 2017.
840,000
820,000
Employment Recovery
Pre-Recession Employment
800,000
780,000
760,000
740,000
Trendline according to
2011-2021 Industry
Projections.
Now That We Have Industry Projections,
What’s Next?
- Occupational Staffing Pattern
• The occupational staffing pattern for
industries comes from the Occupation
Employment Statistics program
• Voluntary survey of about 3,500 employers
per year
• Collected over 3 years
• Sampled based on their industry code
• Added Bonus – Wages by Occupation
Put It All Together….
Project-o-matic matches
the industry control total
with the staffing pattern
Industry
projections
and staffing
pattern data
go in here…
…And
occupational
projections
come out here!
New Mexico OP 2011 - 2021
New Mexico Occupational Projections 2011 - 2021
2011
2021
Projected
Number
Annual
Annual
Total
Growth
Replacement Annual
Percent
Openings
Openings
Change
Occupational
Occupational Estimated
Group
Code
Management
110000
56,580
59,020
2,440
360
1,160
1,520
4.3%
Business & Financial
130000
31,120
35,100
3,980
400
620
1,020
12.8%
Computer & Mathematical
150000
14,660
17,070
2,410
240
280
530
16.4%
Architecture & Engineering
170000
20,510
21,850
1,330
140
450
590
6.5%
Life, Physical & Social Science
190000
13,540
14,650
1,110
110
450
560
8.2%
Community & Social Service
210000
14,280
16,930
2,650
270
320
580
18.6%
Legal
230000
7,500
7,780
280
40
130
170
3.8%
Education
250000
51,710
64,480
12,770
1,280
1,150
2,430
24.7%
Arts, Design & Entertainment
270000
11,130
12,010
880
110
290
400
7.9%
Healthcare Practitioners
290000
47,990
54,700
6,710
670
960
1,630
14.0%
Healthcare Support
310000
25,940
32,310
6,370
640
380
1,020
24.6%
Protective Services
330000
21,670
24,300
2,630
260
530
790
12.1%
Food Prep & Service
350000
73,900
89,680
15,780
1,580
2,590
4,170
21.4%
Building & Grounds Cleaning
370000
33,360
37,380
4,020
400
590
990
12.0%
Personal Care & Service
390000
44,670
59,390
14,710
1,480
810
2,290
32.9%
Sales
410000
81,000
92,610
11,610
1,170
2,540
3,710
14.3%
Office Support
430000
124,920
134,910
9,990
1,140
2,690
3,830
8.0%
Farm, Fishing & Forestry
450000
7,650
7,630
-20
10
230
240
-0.2%
Construction & Extraction
470000
59,840
68,320
8,480
860
1,230
2,090
14.2%
Maintenance & Repair
490000
33,020
37,120
4,100
410
760
1,170
12.4%
Production
510000
31,370
32,950
1,590
230
680
910
5.1%
Transportation & Material Moving
530000
45,480
51,510
6,030
610
1,130
1,730
13.2%
Total All Occs
000000
851,840
971,680
119,840
12,410
19,960
32,370
14.1%
Employment Employment Change
Openings
Employment Growth, 2011 - 2021
NM Occupational Projections 2011 - 2021
Occupational
Occupational
2011
Estimated
Titles
Code
Employment Employment Change
Person Care Aides
Retail Sales
Combination Food Prep & Servers
Home Health Aides
Waitstaff
Cashiers
Elementary School Teachers
Registered Nurses
Teachers Aides
Customer Service Representatives
Restaurant Cooks
Bookkeepers
Janitors
Truck Drivers
Retail Sales Supervisors
Food Prep & Servers Supervisors
General Office Clerks
Stockers & Material Handlers
Roustabouts
Office Managers
Total All Occs
399021
412031
353021
311011
353031
412011
252021
291111
259041
434051
352014
433031
372011
533032
411011
351012
439061
537062
475071
431011
000000
19,700
28,580
14,360
6,790
15,270
19,700
9,410
16,890
9,640
12,770
6,410
14,090
12,310
9,610
11,870
6,030
10,190
9,100
2,800
9,770
851,840
2021
Projected
30,670
33,310
18,670
10,750
18,630
22,810
12,140
19,480
11,900
14,580
8,130
15,600
13,820
11,050
13,310
7,400
11,540
10,390
4,070
10,950
971,680
Number
10,970
4,730
4,310
3,960
3,360
3,110
2,730
2,590
2,260
1,810
1,720
1,510
1,510
1,440
1,440
1,370
1,350
1,300
1,270
1,190
119,840
Annual
Growth
Annual
Total
Replacement Annual
Openings Openings
1,100
470
430
400
340
310
270
260
230
180
170
150
150
140
140
140
140
130
130
120
12,410
160
840
400
90
760
890
210
310
220
360
140
160
230
190
280
130
180
290
60
260
19,960
Annual
Percent Growth
Openings Change Rate
1,250
1,310
830
480
1,100
1,210
480
570
440
540
310
310
380
340
420
270
320
420
190
380
32,370
55.7%
16.6%
30.0%
58.4%
22.0%
15.8%
29.0%
15.3%
23.4%
14.2%
26.9%
10.7%
12.3%
15.0%
12.1%
22.6%
13.3%
14.2%
45.2%
12.1%
14.1%
4.5%
1.5%
2.7%
4.7%
2.0%
1.5%
2.6%
1.4%
2.1%
1.3%
2.4%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.2%
2.1%
1.3%
1.3%
3.8%
1.2%
1.3%
Employment Projections By Education,
2011 - 2021
New Mexico Projections By Education
Education
Level
Number
2011
2021
Change
Less than high school
250,110
300,730
50,620
High school diploma or equivalent
356,010
392,260
36,250
Bachelor's degree
130,770
151,010
20,240
Master's degree
15,170
18,660
3,500
Postsecondary non-degree award
34,300
37,730
3,430
Doctoral or professional degree
20,470
23,270
2,800
Associate's degree
39,350
41,690
2,340
Projections Are Based On All Things Being Equal
And There Are No Shocks To The Economy…
www.jobs.state.nm.us/analyzer/default.asp
Click these links for industry
or occupational projections
QUESTIONS?
CONTACT INFORMATION:
Bob Richards
ECONOMIC RESEARCH & ANALYSIS BUREAU
DEPARTMENT OF WORKFORCE SOLUTIONS
383-2732
[email protected]