Transcript How Renewable Energy Can Power the World Mark Z. Jacobson Atmosphere/Energy Program Dept.

How Renewable Energy Can Power the World
Mark Z. Jacobson
Atmosphere/Energy Program
Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering
Stanford University
Thanks to Mark Delucchi (coauthor), Cristina Archer, Elaine Hart,
Mike Dvorak, Eric Stoutenburg, Bethany Corcoran, John Ten Hoeve,
Eena Sta. Maria, Diana Ginnebaugh
HEAL Utah
Salt Lake City, Utah, November 14, 2011
What’s the Problem? Why Act Quickly?
Air pollution mortality is one of five leading causes of death
worldwide
Global temperatures are rising faster than during deglaciation at end
of last ice age; Arctic sea ice area is decreasing quickly
Higher population and growing energy demand will result in
worsening air pollution and climate problems over time.
Norilsk, Russia
http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html
Sukinda, India
http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html
Linfen, China
http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html
Lung of LA Teenage
Nonsmoker in
1970s; Lungs of
People in Most Big
Cities of the World
Today
SCAQMD/CARB
Arctic Sea Ice 1979-2011
1979-2000 mean 15.6 m sq km
nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews
Lowest years
2011
2005
2006
2007
2009
Mean Global Temperature Anomalies
Warmest years
1. 2010/2005
2. 3. 2009
4. 2007/1998
5. 6. 2002
7. 2003/2006
8. 9. 2001/2004
10. NASA GISS, 2011
Cleanest Solutions to Global Warming, Air Pollution,
Energy Security – Energy & Env. Sci, 2, 148 (2009)
Electric Power
Vehicles
Recommended – Wind, Water, Sun (WWS)
1. Wind
3. Geothermal
5. PV
7. Hydroelectricity
2. CSP
4. Tidal
6. Wave
WWS-Battery-Electric
WWS-Hydrogen Fuel Cell
Not Recommended
Nuclear
Coal-CCS
Natural gas, biomass
Corn, cellulosic, sugarcane ethanol
Soy, algae biodiesel
Compressed natural gas
Why Not Nuclear?
9-25 times more pollution per kWh than wind from mining & refining
uranium and from using fossil fuels for electricity during 11-19 years
to permit (6-10 y) and construct (4-9 y) nuclear plant compared with
2-5 years for a wind or solar farm
Risk of meltdown (1.5% of all nuclear reactors to date have melted)
Risk of nuclear weapons proliferation
Unresolved waste issues
Why Not Clean Coal (With Carbon Capture)?
50 times more CO2 emissions per kWh than wind
150 times more air pollutant emissions per kWh than wind
Requires 25% more energy, thus 25% more coal mining and transport
and traditional pollution than normal coal.
Why Not Natural Gas?
60 times more CO2 and air pollution emissions per kWh than wind
Fracking causes land and water supply degradation
Why Not Ethanol?
Corn and cellulosic E85 cause same or higher air pollution as gasoline
Corn E85: 100-200% of CO2 emissions as gasoline
Cellulosic E85: 50-150% of CO2 emissions as gasoline
Wind-BEVs: 0.2-0.8% of CO2 emissions as gasoline
Enormous land use and water requirements
Wind Power, Wind-Driven Wave Power
www.mywindpowersystem.com
Hydroelectric, Geothermal, Tidal Power
www.gizmag.com
www.inhabitat.com
myecoproject.org
www.sir-ray.com
Concentrated Solar Power, PV Power
Torresol Gemasolar Spain, 15 hrs storage,
Matthew Wright, Beyond Zero
www.solarthermalmagazine.com
i.treehugger.com
Electric/Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles
Tesla Roadster all electric
Hydrogen fuel cell bus
Nissan Leaf all electric
Electric truck
Tesla Model S all electric
Hydrogen fuel cell–electric hybrid bus
Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Ships &
Tractors; Liquid Hydrogen Aircraft
Ecofriend.org
Zmships.eu
Electric ship
Ec.europa.eu
Air-Source Heat Pump, Air Source Electric
Water Heater, Solar Water Pre-Heater
Midlandpower.com
Conservpros.com
Adaptivebuilders.com
Heat pump water heater
World Wind Speeds at 100m
90
10
8
0
6
4
-90
2
-180
-90
0
90
180
All wind worldwide: 1700 TW;
All wind over land in high-wind areas outside Antarctica ~ 70-170 TW
= 6-15 times world end-use WWS power demand 2030 of 11.5 TW
80-m
Wind
Speeds
From
Data
Archer and Jacobson (2005) www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/winds/
Utah: 15-30 GW CF>0.3
World Surface Solar
90
Surface downward solar radiation (W/m2) (global avg: 193; land: 183)
250
200
0
150
100
-90
-180
-90
0
90
180
All solar worldwide: 6500 TW;
All solar over land in high-solar locations~ 340 TW
= 30 times world end-use WWS power demand 2030 of 11.5 TW
End Use Power Demand For All Purposes
2010
World
12.5 TW
U.S.
2.50 TW
2030 with current fuels
16.9 TW
2.83 TW
2030 converting all energy to
wind-water-sun (WWS) and
electricty/H2
11.5 TW
1.78 TW
(32% reduction) (37% reduction)
Number of Plants or Devices to Power World
Technology
Percent Supply 2030
Number
5-MW wind turbines
50%
3.8 mill. (0.8% in place)
0.75-MW wave devices
1
720,000
100-MW geothermal plants
4
5350 (1.7% in place)
1300-MW hydro plants
4
900 (70% in place)
1-MW tidal turbines
1
490,000
3-kW Roof PV systems
6
1.7 billion
300-MW Solar PV plants
14
40,000
300-MW CSP plants
20
49,000
____
100%
Wind Footprints vs. Spacing
Pro.corbins.com
Pro.corbins.com
www.eng.uoo.ca
www.npower-renewables.com
www.offshore-power.net
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
Wind-BEV
Footprint 1-2.8 km2
Turbine spacing
0.35-0.7% of US
Cellulosic E85
4.7-35.4% of US
Nuclear-BEV
0.05-0.062%
Footprint 33%
of total; the rest is
buffer
Corn E85
9.8-17.6% of
US
Geoth BEV
0.006-0.008%
Solar PV-BEV
0.077-0.18%
Matching Hourly Demand With WWS Supply by Aggregating Sites and
Bundling WWS Resources – Least Cost Optimization for California
For 99.8% of all hours in 2005, 2006, delivered CA elec. carbon free. Can oversize
WWS capacity, use demand-response, forecast, store to reduce NG backup more
Hart and Jacobson (2011); www.stanford.edu/~ehart/
Methods of addressing variability of WWS
1. Bundling WWS resources as one commodity and using
hydroelectricity to fill in gaps in supply
2. Interconnecting geographically-dispersed WWS resources
1. Using demand-response management
2. Oversizing peak generation capacity and producing
hydrogen with excess for industry, transportation
3. Storing electric power on site or in BEVs (e.g., VTG)
4. Forecasting winds and cloudiness better to reduce reserves
Desertec
www.dw-world.de/image/0,,4470611_1,00.jpg
Resources for Nd2O3 (Tg) Used in Permanent
Magnets for Wind Turbine Generators
Country
China
CIS
U.S.
Australia
India
Others
World
Resources
16
3.8
2.1
1
0.2
4.1
27.3
Current production:
Needed to power 50% of world with wind
4.4 (0.1 Tg/yr for 44 years)
periodictable.com
0.022 Tg/yr
Jacobson & Delucchi (2011)
Resources for Lithium (Tg) Used in Batteries
Country
Bolivia
Chile
China
U.S.
Argentina
Brazil
Other
World land
Oceans
Resources
9
7.5
5.4
4
2.6
1
3.5
33
240
Possible number of vehicles @10kg/each
with current known land resources
www.saltsale.com
3.3 billion+ (currently 800 million)
Jacobson & Delucchi (2011)
Costs of Energy, Including Transmission (¢/kWh)
Energy Technology
2005-2010
Wind onshore
Wind offshore
Wave
Geothermal
Hydroelectric
CSP
Solar PV
Tidal
Conventional (+Externalities)
4-7
10-17
>>11
4-7
4
10-15
9-13
>>11
7 (+5)=12
2020-2030
≤4
8-13
4-11
4-7
4
8
5-7
5-7
8 (+5.5) =13.5
Delucchi & Jacobson (2010)
Summary
2030 electricity cost 4-10¢/kWh for most, 8-13 for some WWS ,
vs. fossil-fuel 8 + 5.5 externality = 13.5¢/kWh
Includes long-distance transmission (1200-2000 km) ~1¢/kWh
Requires only 0.41% more of world land for footprint; 0.59% for
spacing (compared w/40% of world land for cropland and pasture)
Eliminates 2.5-3 million air pollution deaths/year
Eliminates global warming, provides energy stability
Summary, cont.
Converting to Wind, Water, & Sun (WWS) and electricity/H2 will
reduce global power demand by 30%
Multiple methods of addressing WWS variability.
Materials are not limits although recycling may be needed.
Barriers : up-front costs, transmission needs, lobbying, politics.
Papers:
www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.h
tml