Transcript Document
Training Workshop on Green Jobs for South African Trade Unions
20 November 2012 Parktonian Hotel, Johannesburg
Outline of presentation
• • • • • • Introduction Purpose of the report Methodology Green jobs estimates Key success factors Key messages 2
Introduction
• The greening of an economy can present substantial opportunities for the creation of sustainable employment through the introduction of new activities in the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors.
• • • A green economic revolution worldwide, re-orienting national development trajectories.
South Africa’s economy is one of the most carbon intensive globally.
Environmental sustainability and economic progress are not opposing forces.
Rank Country
1 2 3 4 5 China United States European Union – 27 India Russia … 14 South Africa 15 Brazil Source: Authors, compiled from IEA data
Total emissions (million t)
6 877.2
5 195.0
3 576.8
1 585.8
1 532.6
369.4
337.8
Emissions (t/capita)
5.14
16.90
7.15
1.37
10.80
7.49
1.74
Emissions (kg/USD GDP)
0.55
0.46
0.30
0.35
1.00
0.70
0.20
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Introduction
Opportunities:
Amongst best solar resources; Wind energy potential; Biodiversity; Economic diversification through infant industries; Job creation; Up-skilling of workforce; First mover advantage.
Challenges:
Carbon intensity; Natural resource management; Unemployment; Economic concentration; Competitiveness; Protectionism; Operating environment.
Transition
Current drivers:
New Growth Path; Industrial Policy Action Plan; National Climate Change Response White Paper; National Development Plan.
Limited window of opportunity – concerted effort needed!
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Purpose of the report
• • • • • • Considering the fast growing interest in the green economy and divergent views on employment potential, attempt to bring forth a degree of consolidation and comparability.
Estimate the national direct employment potential per green area/technology covered (26 in total).
Contribute to debate, not only on renewable energy generation, but also wider green economy issues.
Provide useful input for prioritisation processes at the national, industry and institutional levels.
Assist a broad spectrum of stakeholders in the associated strategic planning process.
Methodology permits flexibility and review as information evolves.
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Methodology: Process
• • • • • • • • Initial scoping to identify technology universe.
Selection in terms of applicability to SA context and availability of information (narrowed down to 26 segments/technologies).
Consultation of wide range of publications and industry specific information, locally and globally.
Interaction with local and foreign experts and industry players.
Existing studies and models (mainly pertaining to North America and Europe) largely based on highly disaggregated sectoral data – not the case in SA.
Research team had to develop a suitable employment estimation methodology.
Standard layout was adopted to facilitate consultation and comparability.
Draft report went through a substantial review by local and foreign experts, before the report was finalised.
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Methodology: Coverage
Wind power
Energy generation
Solar power PV CSP Marine power Landfill gas Waste-to-energy Biomass combustion Anaerobic digestion Pyrolysis/ gasification Cogeneration Bio fuels Hydro power Large Small
Emissions and pollution mitigation
Pollution control Air pollution control equipment Electrical vehicles Clean stoves Water treatment Recycling Carbon capture and storage
Natural resource management
Biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration Soil and land management
Energy and resource efficiency
Green buildings Insulation, lighting and windows Solar water heaters Rainwater harvesting Industrial efficiencies Industrial motors Mechanical insulation Transport BRT 7
Methodology: Process
• • • • • • • • Initial scoping to identify technology universe.
Selection in terms of applicability to SA context and availability of information (narrowed down to 26 segments/technologies).
Consultation of wide range of publications and industry specific information, locally and globally.
Interaction with local and foreign experts and industry players.
Existing studies and models (mainly pertaining to North America and Europe) largely based on highly disaggregated sectoral data – not the case in SA.
Research team had to develop a suitable employment estimation methodology.
Standard layout was adopted to facilitate consultation and comparability.
Draft report went through a substantial review by local and foreign experts, before the report was finalised.
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Methodology: Estimation
• • • •
Assumptions:
Build programmes defined for each area/technology (local + exports).
Appropriate policies and regulations in place.
Where appropriate, resource inputs allocated to a specific technology to avoid double counting.
Various types of employment ratios utilised: output-, input- or financial related.
Short term (2011-12) Medium term (2013-17) Long term (2018-25) Building, construction and installation Operations and maintenance Manufacturing
Employment estimates • • • •
Results:
Direct jobs in formal economy (i.e. multiplier effects not taken into account).
Net figures (i.e. job losses due to greening of economy were subtracted).
Full-time equivalent.
Averaged per time period to smooth significant annual fluctuations.
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Green jobs estimates: Assumed resource allocation
Waste source
Municipal solid waste Wood Sewerage Green municipal solid waste Industrial waste – food processors Industrial waste – other
Flow assumed in the report Potential green flow Potential non-green flow Non-polluting waste (no energy potential) Waste treatment technology
Pyrolysis Biomass combustion Recycling Landfill Anaerobic digestion Co-generation
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Green jobs estimates: Hypothetical build programme and assumptions
Number of MW per year
CSP plants completed: SA
Number of workers per MW Construction period years
CSP plants completed: RoA Construction: SA Construction: RoA O&M: SA
18.75
21.6
2 18.75
2.16
2 0.54
O&M: RoA
0.05
Manufacturing: SA Manufacturing: RoA
18.75
14.4
2 18.75
14.4
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Year
2011 2012
Average short term
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Average medium term
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Average long term No. of MW
0 0 0 100 130 170 220 290 380 490 640 800 800 800 800 800
No. of MW
25 50 50 75 100 125 150 150 160 200 200
No. of jobs
0 0
0
386 501 651 829 922 922 922 922 58 132 173 225 294
176 757 No. of jobs
0 0
0
7 10 13 16 17 18 21 23 0 0 1 4 6
2 No. of jobs
0 0
0
492 697 962 1308 1740 2172 2604 3036 0 54 124 216 335
146 16 1626 No. of jobs
0 0
0
8 8 9 11 3 4 5 7 0 0 0 1 3
1 7 No. of jobs
0 0
0
257 334 434 553 614 614 614 614 38 88 115 150 196
117 504 No. of jobs
0 0
0
48 67 86 106 115 119 138 154 0 0 10 29 38
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Methodology: Process
• • • • • • • • Initial scoping to identify technology universe.
Selection in terms of applicability to SA context and availability of information (narrowed down to 26 segments/technologies).
Consultation of wide range of publications and industry specific information, locally and globally.
Interaction with local and foreign experts and industry players.
Existing studies and models (mainly pertaining to North America and Europe) largely based on highly disaggregated sectoral data – not the case in SA.
Research team had to develop a suitable employment estimation methodology.
Standard layout was adopted to facilitate consultation and comparability.
Draft report went through a substantial review by local and foreign experts, before the report was finalised.
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Methodology: Standardised section layout
• • • • • • • Historical progress and maturity of the technology/area.
Advantages and disadvantage associated with the technology/area.
Overview of global usage, including Some of the major international and local players.
The applicability of the technology to South Africa and the rest of the African continent.
Analysis of the potential job creation.
• • Adaption of the generic methodology Results Ease of introduction of the technology • • Implementation challenges Policy implications 13
Green jobs estimates: Overall direct potential
Total
Energy generation
% of total
Energy and resource efficiency
% of total
Emissions and pollution control
% of total
Natural resource management
% of total
Short term 98 000
13 565
13.8%
31 569
32.2%
8 434
8.6%
44 512
45.4%
Medium term 255 000
57 142
22.4%
Long term 462 000
130 023
28.1%
70 193 67 979
27.5%
13 189
14.7%
31 641
5.2% 45.0% 6.8%
114 842 232 926
50.4%
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Green jobs estimates: Building, construction and installation
• Employment momentum re. building, construction and installation activities peaks in the medium term, largely propelled by mass transportation infrastructure, stabilising thereafter as green building methods become progressively entrenched.
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Green jobs estimates: Operations and maintenance
• • The largest employment gains are likely to be associated with O&M activities, particularly those involved in the various natural resource management initiatives.
O&M jobs linked to renewable energy generation plants also substantial.
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Green jobs estimates: Manufacturing
• • Potential for localisation of manufacturing and associated employment expands as projects related to a greening economy are progressively commissioned.
Competitiveness gains derived over time due to economies of scale as markets develop.
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Green jobs estimates: Energy generation
Broad ‘green economy’ category Segment Technology/product Total net direct employment potential in the long-term Net direct manufacturing employment potential in the long-term ENERGY GENERATION Renewable (non-fuel) electricity Wind power Solar power
Onshore wind power Offshore wind power Concentrated solar power Photovoltaic power Marine power 5 156 3 014 13 541 2 105 608 8 463
Marine power
197 0
Fuel-based renewable electricity Liquid fuels Hydro power Waste-to energy Bio-fuels
Micro-/small-hydro power Large hydro power Landfills Biomass combustion Anaerobic digestion Pyrolysis/Gasification Co-generation Bio-ethanol Bio-diesel 272 100 1 178 37 270 1 429 4 348 10 789 52 729 111 0 180 154 591 2 663 1 050 6 641
Total energy generation employment
VH H M L VL N = very high = high = medium = low = very low = negligible/none
130 023 22 566
(total employment potential > 20 000 direct jobs; manufacturing potential > 3 000 direct jobs) (total employment potential > 8 000, but (total employment potential > 3 000, but (total employment potential > 1 000, but (total employment potential > 0, but 20 000; manufacturing potential > 1 000 but 8 000; manufacturing potential > 500 but 1 000; manufacturing potential > 0, but 3 000; manufacturing potential > 150, but 150) 3 000) 1 000) 500) (total employment potential = 0; manufacturing potential = 0)
Total net direct employment potential (ST, MT, LT)
VL, L, M N, VL, M M, H, H N, N, VL VL, VL, VL VL, VL, VL VL, VL, L VL, H, VH VL, VL, L VL, L, M L, M, H M, H, VH
Net direct manufacturing employment potential (ST, MT, LT)
L, M, H N, VL, M H, VH, VH N, N, N VL, M, VL N, N, N VL, VL, L VL, VL, L VL, L, M VL, H, H M, H, H L, H, VH 18
Green jobs estimates: Evolution of renewable energy generation
• • Renewable energy expansion path (bearing in mind that cost issues are not addressed) exceeds that of IRP 2010-2030 by a significant margin (i.e. 8 720MW), largely due to higher deemed CSP potential and inclusion of waste-to-energy (particularly cogeneration).
Renewable energy mix also considerably different and more labour intensive. 19
Green jobs estimates: Evolution of renewable energy mix
• Wind and cogeneration are dominant in the short term, although solar power (initially PV, but later also CSP) brings some balance in the long term. 20
Green jobs estimates: Energy & resource efficiency / Emissions & pollution mitigation
Broad ‘green economy’ category ENERGY & RESOURCE EFFICIENCY Segment Green buildings Transportation Industrial Total energy efficiency employment Technology/product
Insulation, lighting, windows Solar water heaters Rain water harvesting Bus Rapid Transport Energy efficient motors Mechanical insulation
Total net direct employment potential in the long-term Net direct manufacturing employment potential in the long-term Total net direct employment potential (ST, MT, LT) Net direct manufacturing employment potential (ST, MT, LT)
7 340 17 621 1 275 41 642 -566 666
67 977
838 1 225 181 350 4 89
2 686
VH H M L VL N
EMISSIONS & POLLUTION MITIGATION Pollution control
Air pollution control Electrical vehicles Clean stoves Acid mine water treatment
Carbon Capture and Storage Recycling Total emissions and pollution mitigation employment
= very high = high = medium = low = very low = negligible/none 900 11 428 2 783 361 251 15 918
31 641
166 10 642 973 0 0 9 016
20 797
(total employment potential > 20 000 direct jobs; manufacturing potential > 3 000 direct jobs) (total employment potential > 8 000, but (total employment potential > 3 000, but (total employment potential > 1 000, but (total employment potential > 0, but 20 000; manufacturing potential > 1 000 but 8 000; manufacturing potential > 500 but 3 000; manufacturing potential > 150, but 1 000; manufacturing potential > 0, but 150) 3 000) 1 000) 500) (total employment potential = 0; manufacturing potential = 0) L, M, M L, H, H VL, VL, L VH, VH, VH VL, VL, VL VL, VL, VL N, VL, VL VL, L, H VL, VL, L VL, VL, VL N, VL, VL M, H, H L, M, M L, M, H VL, VL, L H, M, L VL, VL, VL VL, VL, VL N, L, L N, H, VH VL, L, M N, N, N N, N, N H, VH, VH 21
Green jobs estimates: Natural resource management
Broad ‘green economy’ category NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT Segment Technology/product Total net direct employment potential in the long-term Net direct manufacturing employment potential in the long-term Total net direct employment potential (ST, MT, LT) Net direct manufacturing employment potential (ST, MT, LT) Conservation & eco-system restoration
121 553 0 H, VH, VH N, N, N
Soil & land management
111 373 0
Total natural resource management employment
VH H M L VL N = very high = high = medium = low = very low = negligible/none
232 926 0
(total employment potential > 20 000 direct jobs; manufacturing potential > 3 000 direct jobs) (total employment potential > 8 000, but 20 000; manufacturing potential > 1 000 but 3 000) (total employment potential > 3 000, but 8 000; manufacturing potential > 500 but 1 000) (total employment potential > 1 000, but 3 000; manufacturing potential > 150, but 500) (total employment potential > 0, but 1 000; manufacturing potential > 0, but 150) (total employment potential = 0; manufacturing potential = 0) VH, VH, VH N, N, N 22
Key success factors
> 460 000 direct jobs
• • • • •
Generic issues
Commitment, awareness and readiness by the private, public and household sectors.
Institutional capabilities.
Funding availability, incentives, mechanisms.
Regional coordination.
Integration and coordination.
• • •
Conducive regulatory environment
Policy framework, pace of regulatory revision, amendment and development.
Stakeholder communication and co-ordination.
Simplification and streamlining. • •
Taking the lead, growing demand
Public sector playing an exemplary role.
Gradual, effective transformation of production and consumption patterns.
• • • •
Localisation
Local procurement and export market penetration to develop critical mass. Availability of competitively priced inputs and services.
National industrialisation strategies.
R&D capabilities and technology transfer.
• •
Developing skills
Address shortages of skills in certain areas.
Re-skilling and development of specific skills capabilities.
•
Securing resources
Availability, accessibility, quality, sustainability and pricing of required resources.
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Key messages
• • • • • • • • The greening of the SA economy can result in substantial net direct employment creation within the formal sectors.
Jobs estimates escalate once multiplier effects are taken into account, whilst informal employment potential is considerable.
Appropriate and conducive policy and regulatory environment, accompanied by effective public sector coordination, are crucial for the successful roll-out of the various green areas/technologies.
The public sector should take the lead in driving the use of certain green technologies.
Institutional capacity development is a prerequisite, especially at the local government level due to its crucial roll in a future greening of the SA economy.
Long term industrialisation and localisation strategies are required, and need to be communicated clearly.
Regional cooperation is deemed key for market development and sourcing of feedstock.
Need to act without delay as the window of opportunity is limited.
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Thank you
IDC 19 Fredman Drive Sandown PO Box 784055 Sandton 2146 South Africa Telephone +27 (0)11 269 3000 Facsimile +27 (0)11 269 2116 www.idc.co.za
DBSA Headway Hill 1258 Lever Road, Midrand PO Box 1234 Halfway House 1685 South Africa Telephone +27 (0)11 313 3911 Facsimile +27(0)11 313 3086 www.dbsa.org
TIPS 826 Government Road Arcadia, Pretoria PO Box 11214 Hatfield 0028 South Africa Telephone +27 (0)12 431 7900 Facsimile +27 (0)12 431 7910 www.tips.org.za
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