Transcript พลังงานทดแทนของประเทศไทย เวทีวเิ คราะห์ นโยบายพลังงาน 11 มกราคม 2548 Chris Greacen Palang Thai www.palangthai.org Outline • Overview of Thai government targets and planned policies for renewable energy • Renewable energy.

พลังงานทดแทนของประเทศไทย
เวทีวเิ คราะห์ นโยบายพลังงาน
11 มกราคม 2548
Chris Greacen
Palang Thai
www.palangthai.org
Outline
• Overview of Thai government targets and
planned policies for renewable energy
• Renewable energy potential
• Power sector planning process
• Integrated resource planning (IRP)
นโยบายการพัฒนาพลังงานทดแทน
พล ังงาน
เชงิ พาณิชย์
83.0%
TE
16.5%
TE = Traditional Energy
NRE
NRE
0.5%
(265 ktoe)
= New & Renewable Energy
TE
2545
11%
52,939 KTOE
พลังงาน
เชิงพาณิชย์
81%
Cabinet resolution
Sept. 2, 2003
NRE
8%
(6,668 KTOE)
2554
2554
83,354
KTOE
81,753
KTOE
เป้ าหมายและกลยุทธ์
พลังงานทดแทน
Should be 3000 MW
RPS 437 MW
- Solar 200 MW
- Wind 100 MW
- MSW 100 MW
- Biomass 37 MW
- Hydro
INCENTIVE
Electricity
Solar
6 MW
Wind
0.2 MW
Biomass 560 MW
Heat
~ 0.00 KTOE
Electricity
1,170 KTOE
RPS
Incentive
1,093 MW
-Biomass
-Hydro
RE
8%
RE
0.5%
Heat
(Incentive)
3,900 KTOE
Bio fuel
Bio Fuel (Incentive)
~ 0.00 KTOE
R&D
1,600
Facilitator
Ethanol
Bio diesel
2002
KTOE
3.0 M liter/day
2.4 M liter/day
2011
Replacement of imported oil 48 mill. barrels values 96,537 Mill. Baht
Most TE is heat
พล ังงาน
เชงิ พาณิชย์
83.0%
TE
16.5%
TE = Traditional Energy
NRE
NRE
0.5%
(265 ktoe)
2545
TE
11%
52,939 KTOE
พลังงาน
เชิงพาณิชย์
81%
Most NRE is heat
= New & Renewable Energy
2554
83,354 KTOE
NRE
8%
(6,668 KTOE)
Possibility that
TE heat is
“repackaged”
as NRE heat
การผลิตไฟฟ้ าจากพลังงานทดแทน
จาก 8% ของการใช้ พลังงานทดแทน,
กาหนดให้ มีการผลิตไฟฟ้ าจากพลังงานทดแทน = ~2,090 MW ในปี 2554
1530 MW*
(+560 MW)
*
Existing SPP 560 MW
Solar
Wind
MSW(ขยะ)
Biomass
Hydro
มาตรการ RPS
430 MW
Biomass
Small Hydro
Solar Home System
SPP
กาหนดให้ โรงไฟฟ้ าใหม่
ดาเนินการ
มาตรการจงู ใจและสนับสนุน
1100
MW
• กาหนดราคารับซื้อไฟฟ้า
• เงินกู้ดอกเบีย้ ตา่
• ลดภาษี
MSW=Municipal Solid Waste
มาตรการ RPS
• Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS):
obligates each retail seller of electricity to
include in its resource portfolio a certain
amount of electricity from renewable
energy resources.
– The retailer can either:
• (a) owning a renewable energy facility and
producing its own power, or
• (b) purchasing power from someone else's facility.
– RPS rules can allow retailers to "trade" their
obligation.
Concerns about Thai RPS
• In other countries, RPS requires functioning wholesale
market
• Needs independent regulator
• RPS favors large developers over small
• RPS has mixed track record
• In Thai version, only applies to new fossil generation.
– Ties new renewable development to development of fossil
generation
– Big hydro exempted from obligations
• In Thai version obligation based on MW rather than GWh
encourages gaming
See more at: http://www.palangthai.org/en/docs/sustain.pdf
กาหนดราคารับซื้อไฟฟ้ า (Feed-in tariff)
• Paid per kWh of electricity generated
– a guaranteed power sales price
– a guaranteed market (electric utilities must
take)
– Favors smaller renewable energy producers
– Simple
– Less prone to cheating
German feed-in tariffs decrease every year
Solar declines 5% per year
for new projects
50
Wind pow er final tariffs
45
Hydropow er and Gas < 5 MW
40
Geothermal pow er > 20 MW
Euro cents/kWh
35
Hydropow er and Gas < 500 k\w (from
landfills. mines. sew age Pt.)
30
Biomass 5 MW-20 MW
25
Geothermal pow er < 20 MW
20
Wind pow er initial tariffs/ prolongation*
15
Biomass 500 kW–5 MW
10
5
Biomass < 500 kW
0
Solar pow er
2002 2003
2004 2005
2006 2007
2008 2009
2010
German feed-in tariffs (not showing solar PV)
12
10
Wind power final tariffs
Euro cents/kWh
Hydropower and Gas < 5 MW
8
Geothermal power > 20 MW
6
Hydropower and Gas < 500 k\w (from landfills.
mines. sewage Pt.)
Biomass 5 MW-20 MW
Wind power initial tariffs/ prolongation*
4
Biomass 500 kW–5 MW
Geothermal power < 20 MW
2
Biomass < 500 kW
0
2002 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Biomass declines 1% per
year
2008
2009
2010
Wind declines 1.5% per year
พลังงานทดแทน
ทีม่ ียุทธศาสตร์ ชัดเจน
Ethanol 1,000 KTOE
(90% gasoline, 10% ethanol)
Biofuel
1,600 KTOE
Biodiesel 600 KTOE
98% diesel, 2% biodiesel
NRE Potential in Thailand
Small Hydro 700 MW
Solar >5,000 MW
High Potential Low Development
Wind 1,600 MW
Biomass 7,000 MW
Peak consumption = 19,000 MW
Wind Energy Potential Map
Average speed 4.4 - 6.4 m/sec
Power Potential 1,600 MW
10 kW
50 kW
3 kW
400 W
(Not to
scale)
Biomass Potential
Major agricultural residues in 2002/2003
Rice husk 5.5 M tons/yr
Power potential 560 MW
Bagasse 20 M tons/yr
Power potential 1400 MW
Rhizomes 1.6 M tons/yr
Power potential 110 MW
1900 MW? 1200 MW?
Korat Waste to Energy - biogas
• Uses waste water from cassava to make methane
• Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW thermal) + 3
MW of electricity
• Earns high market returns
• Developer estimates 300 MW from waste water + 800
MW from wet cake
Korat Waste to Energy - biogas
• 3 x 1 MW Jenbacher gas generators
Energy conservation potential
• DSM
–2000 to 3000 MW: “Achievable
and cost effective DSM” in 1991
(Utility study)
• IIEC (International Institute for Energy Conservation). 1991.
Demand Side Management for Thailand’s Electric Power System:
Five-Year Master Plan. Submitted to Electricity Generating
Authority of Thailand, Metropolitan Electricity Authority and
Provincial Electricity Authority, Bangkok, Thailand. Bangkok,
Thailand. November.
Cogeneration potential
• Cogeneration
–8610 MW cogen installed as of
2001
• http://www.jxj.com/magsandj/cospp/2002_05/cogen_southeast_asia.html
–Since 1998, utilities accepting no
new cogen. At least 3,000 MW of
additional cogen had applied and
have not been accepted.
Planning
• Conventional approach
• Integrated Resource Planning (IRP)
• Risk
Conventional planning approach
1. Demand forecast – determined by
committee comprising mainly
government (EPPO), and utilities
(EGAT,MEA, PEA)
2. Power Development Plan (PDP) -Developed by EGAT.
Conventional approach step #1: Demand
forecasts (vs. actual demand)
55,000
50,000
Jun-93
45,000
Dec-94
Oct-95
เมกะว ัตต ์ (MW)
40,000
Apr-96
Oct-96
35,000
Jun-97
Sep-97
30,000
Sep-98(RER)
25,000
Sep-98(MER)
Sep-98(LER)
20,000
Feb-01
Aug-02
15,000
Jan-04(LEG)
Jan-04(MEG)
10,000
Jan-04(TEG)
ACTUAL
5,000
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Conventional planning problems
Process
Problem
Peak demand
+15% reserve
EGAT
= minimum generating capacity
Specify new generators & transmission
(PDP)
Only considers gas/coal/big hydro
Ministry of Energy endorses plan
NEPC
Approve
Cabinet
Acknowledge
•
•
–
–
–
•
Citizens and consumers
have no role in decisions
No consideration of
alternatives:
Renewables
DSM
Cogeneration
No accountability to
ensure that the plan is
appropriate or least-cost
Conventional approach step #2:
Power development plan
Generation capacity = peak demand + 15%
Problems
•
•
•
•
Little transparency
Little accountability
Little participation
No consideration of alternatives
– DSM
– Cogeneration
– Renewables
Integrated Resource Planning (IRP)
– a way forward?
• Integrated Resource Planning (IRP or
least cost planning) has origins in the
1980’s.
• Widely implemented by many utilities,
especially in USA
• The principle of IRP is that customers do
not actually need kWh, instead they
require the services that are provided
by electricity: “warm houses, light, and
cold beer”.
Integrated Resource Planning
(IRP)
– what is it?
• Services can either be met by building new power plants,
or by increasing efficiency of use.
• IRP is a systematic planning framework to meet
consumers needs for energy services in a way that best
meets multiple objectives for resource use
• Requires consideration of energy demand, energy
supply, environment, costs, and other factors all together
• An integrated resource plan states a utility’s preferred
strategy for meeting consumers’ needs over the long
term—for example, 20 years
• Goal of IRP: develop plans to meet energy needs of
society efficiently, and at lowest possible cost
Challenge…
• How to strategically push planning to
include:
– Greater transparency, accountability, and
participation (TAP)
– Real inclusion of alternatives in ways that
address risk and environmental benefits of
these technologies
• DSM
• Renewables
• Cogen
For more information
Contact:
Tel. 02-674-2533
[email protected]
www.palangthai.org
Download this presentation at:
http://www.palangthai.org/docs/index