Transcript Integrated Gas and Electricity Modelling

Integrated Gas and Electricity Modelling
Paul Deane
Gas - Electricity Interactions Workshop
June 2014
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Title
Overview of Presentation
Integrated Gas and electricity Modelling
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What Impact will variable renewables have on the gas system?
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Long term modelling to 2050
Overview of Integrated Elec/Gas Model
Builds on existing PLEXOS Power System model
The Simplified Integrated Gas Model provides the capability to model
the costs and constraints of gas delivery from its source fields via a
network of pipelines, through storages and on to meet demands
including those in the Electric Model.
This integrated Gas/Electric Model is not intended to perform the
function of a gas pipeline flow model. Rather, it uses a simple
transportation algorithm to model gas flows
Details of pipeline pressures and pressure drop functions not
modelled. Storage volumes, pipeline flows and gas demands can be
expressed in potential energy terms
Model Coverage
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2030 Model is a sub set of
larger EU model.
15 minute resolution
Gas model is currently only in
AI
Day Ahead and Real Time
Modes (Stochastic or
Independent samples)
2030 Gas Model Inputs
2030 EU PRIMES Final
Demand
Units
Notes
Industrial Demand
656 (685)
ktoe
Normalised DM Data
Residential Demand
764 (600)
ktoe
Smart Meter Data
Services Demand
336 (400)
ktoe
Flat profile (needs to be improved)
Elec Gen
-
ktoe
Optimised in Model
Moffat
Daily Limits on Flow*
Kinsale Storage
8613
TJ
Kinsale Max Withdrawal (day)
97
TJ
Kinsale Max Injection (day)
63
TJ
Corrib
0
Biomethane Injection
Not Currently in 2030 model
Currently in model
Integrated Gas and Electricity Modelling
Addition of Gas objects will impact on objective function to be minimized
Without Gas
With Gas
This can impact solution even if gas constraints are not binding
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Generally small
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Test and determine if significant
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Use MIP or smaller gap
ROI Gas and Wind Generation
‘Flow’- Quantity of Gas Extracted from Pipeline (TJ)
Capacity Factors for CCGT
Annual Gas Storage
(Simplified Gas Price)
Long term modelling
>200 MARKAL / TIMES Users
Only those countries with at least one MARKAL/TIMES modelling team active during the period are “painted.”
Irish TIMES Integrated Energy Systems Model
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Linear programming bottom-up energy model
Integrated model of the entire energy system
Prospective analysis on medium to long term horizon (20 - 50
years)
– Demand driven (exogenous) in physical units
Partial and dynamic equilibrium (perfect market)
Optimal technology selection
Minimize the total system cost
Environmental constraints
Energy and emission permits trading
Price-elastic demands
Ireland Energy System 2012
1,821 ktoe
22,178 GWh
Oil - TPER
8,307 ktoe
96,610 GWh
Imports
13,407 ktoe
155 TWh
4,304 ktoe
50,055 GWh
2,715 ktoe
31,575 GWh
Gas – TPER
4,029 ktoe
46,857 GWh
2,226 ktoe
25,888 GWh
1,349 ktoe
15,688 GWh
Indigenous
1,304 ktoe
15,165 GWh
Elec - TFC
2,078 ktoe
24,167 GWh
250 ktoe
2,907 GWh
Energy Scenarios to 2050: C02-80
Energy Scenarios to 2050: C02-95
Implications for the Economy (€/t CO2)
Conclusions
• Strong technical and financial challenges ahead
for gas fired plant
• Long term role of gas is dependant on emission
reduction ambitions and targets
• CCS, Bioenergy availability are key technology
risks
• Policy: 2030 Climate and Energy targets
Thank you
www.ucc.ie/energypolicy
and