Transcript Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2001 December 2000 Prospects for developing countries and world trade • World trade remains on a high.

Global Economic Prospects and the
Developing Countries 2001
December 2000
Prospects for developing
countries and world trade
• World trade remains on a high growth path
• Strong rebound in developing countries this
year has created favorable short-term
prospects in all regions
• With high growth, tensions and risks are
building up
• Long-term prospects of developing
countries are favorable, but risks remain
World trade versus GDP growth
12
Trade
9
6
3
0
GDP
-3
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Notes: Trade is defined as the average of real exports and imports of goods and non-factor
services.
Source: DECPG DAD database.
Developing regions’ real GDP growth,
1999-2002
Percent
8
1999
2000
2001
2002
6
4
2
0
East Asia
South Asia
Source: DECPG staff estimates.
Latin
America
ECA
MENA
Africa
Divergent recovery of
commodity prices
Index January 1997=100
Oct-00
150
Crude Oil
125
Metals and Minerals
100
75
Agriculture
50
25
Jan- May- Sep97
97
97
Source: DECPG staff.
Jan- May- Sep98
98
98
Jan- May- Sep99
99
99
Jan- May- Sep00
00
00
Spreads on high-yield asset class
in 2000
(basis points above benchmark)
900
Emerging markets
800
700
21-Nov
600
U.S. High-yield
500
400
J
F
M
A
M
J
Source: Bloomberg and DECPG staff estimates.
J
A
S
O
N
GDP per capita growth, 1990-2010
(percent change per annum)
6
1990s
2000s
low case
4
2
0
-2
East Asia South Asia
Source: DECPG.
ECA
LAC
MNA
SSA
Trade policies in the 1990s and
the poorest countries
• Trade barriers reduced across developing
world
• Output and export growth in poorest
countries disappointing
• Exports constrained by weak domestic
policies and external trade barriers
Average unweighted tariff
rates by region
70
1980-85
1986-90
1991-95
1996-98
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Middle East
and North
Africa
Europe and
Central Asia
Industrialized
Economies
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
South Asia
Latin America
East Asia
Sources: WTO, IDB database and Trade Policy Review – Country Report, Various issues, 1990–98; UNCTAD,
Handbook of Trade Control Measures of Developing Countries —Supplement, 1987 and Directory of Import
Regimes, 1994; World Bank, Trade Policy Reform in Developing Countries since 1985, WB Discussion Paper #267,
1994, The Uruguay Round: Statistics on Tariffs Concessions Given and Received, 1996 and World Development
Indicators, 1998; OECD, Indicators of Tariff and Non-Tariff Trade Barriers, 1996; IDB, Statistics and Quantitative
Analysis data, 1998, Patalinga.
Merchandise export and GDP per
capita growth in poor developing
countries in the 1990s
5
Merchandise export growth, average 1990-98
GDP per capita growth, average 1990-98
4
3
2
1
0
-1
Low Income Small countries Low Income Small countries
[32 countries]
excluding countries in conflict
[22 countries]
Source: World Bank Data.
Least Developed Countries
[26 countries]
Least Developed Countries
excluding countries in conflict
[16 countries]
Real effective exchange rate
volatility and growth in the 1990s
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Merchandise export growth, average 1990-98
GDP per capita growth, average 1990-98
Countries with high Countries with low
volatility in the
volatility in the
1990s [26 countries] 1990s [33 countries]
Low income small
Low income small
countries with high countries with low
volatility in the
volatility in the
1990s [13 countries] 1990s [9 countries]
Source: World Bank Data; International Financial Statistics, IMF.
Share of developing countries
in world trade
40
Agriculture
35
30
25
20
Manufactures
15
10
5
0
1970
1974
1978
1982
Source: FAOSTAT, World Bank Data.
1986
1990
1994
1998
Standards, developing countries,
and the global trading system
• Product standards important, but can be
used as trade barriers
• Core labor and environmental standards
critical for sustainable development.
• However, trade sanctions ineffective in
promoting good labor and environmental
standards
• Product standards increase acceptance of
international trading system
• Product standards may also be protectionist
• Developing countries disadvantaged in
formulating and challenging standards
• Labor and environmental standards
important for welfare
• However, trade sanctions to support labor
and environmental standards ineffective and
may be counterproductive
Electronic commerce and the
developing countries
• E-commerce may improve productivity and
enhance trade in developing countries
• But countries that cannot participate
effectively could be marginalized
• Government role important in easing
constraints on electronic commerce,
particularly access to telecommunications
Estimates of electronic commerce
in industrial countries, 1999-2000
Billions of U.S. dollars
160
140
B2B
120
B2C
B2B+B2C
100
80
60
40
20
0
Suttle 2000
Teo 1999
OECD 2000
MSDW 2000
Notes: B2B=business to business; B2C=business to consumer; Teo= ; MSDW=
Source:
Gartner
Regional internet access, 1990
(percent of population with access to Internet)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Industrial
Countries
Source:
United
States
Other
Middle East
and North
Africa
SubSaharan
Africa
Eastern
Europe
Latin
America
and the
Caribbean
Asia
Access to telecommunications
(per 1000 persons)
600
OECD
LAC
Sub-Saharan Africa, excluding South Africa
500
400
300
200
100
0
Telephone mainlines
Source: World Bank 2000.
Mobile phones