Transcript Slide 1
What is Real Progress? Dr. Sıdıka Başçı Statistical Economic and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic Countries (SESRTCIC) Is it the improvement in GDP per capita? trade balance? No ! The Cost of Development should not be Global Failures! Climate change — Global warming Ozone layer depletion How Should We Measure Progress? National or Global? How to separate and combine? Can one talk about national successes in the presence of global failures? Then, a Local Sustainable Development ? Not Possible Anymore! How Should We Measure Progress? Generations bequesting their descendants a more lively place to live, not new problems. What kind of progress are we talking about if future generations will have problems in even breathing clean air, and will have difficulty in access to clean drinking water! How Should We Measure Progress? As pointed out in the report of the Secretary General to the Millennium Assembly of the United Nations (2000), each state has a dual role in the global world, and this duality recognizes that each state not only bears responsibilities in relation to its own people but also collectively shares responsibility for the whole planet. Therefore, defining ‘Real Progress’ is not an easy task as it may appear. What can the Role of International Organizations be? Comparisions across the countries in terms of statistics can be possible only if the data sets of each country have common standards. At this point, international organisations may have an important role in preparing, processing and presenting comparable data. Time is Valuable! Reducing time cost is extremely important for data accession during research. Deterministic Role of R&D One of the most prevelant gaps between developed and developing world is the current stance of Science and Technology in these countries. In fact, it can even be reasonably argued that almost all gaps between developed and developing world can be narrowed down by developing, managing and properly applying appropriate knowledge. It is almost impossible for any country to achieve and sustain prosperity and a high quality of life without using the results of science and ensuring a well-educated population. An important aspect and determinant of progress: Transition to knowledge-based economies and societies. World GDP, Population,and R&D Expenditure and Personnel Share of World Gross Expenditure on R&D, (2000) GERD (As Share of GDP, %) World Europe 1, 64 1, 73 2,00 1, 79 1, 89 2,50 2, 33 3,00 1,50 0, 35 1,00 0,50 0,00 OECD EU-15 Asia Source: UIS S&T database, World Bank, Calculations are made by SESRTCIC OIC The relationship between R&D expenditure and GDP per capita (1997-2004) Country Share of R&D (%) GDP per Capita Uganda 0.81 225 Malaysia 0.69 3,884 Iran 0.67 2,362 Turkey 0.66 2,675 Tunisia 0.63 2,153 Morocco 0.62 1,237 Mozambique 0.59 222 Sudan 0.34 551 Azerrbaijan 0.30 760 Kazakhstan 0.22 1,490 Pakistan 0.22 502 Kuwait 0.20 15,753 Krgyzstan 0.20 321 Egypt 0.19 1,550 Burkina Faso 0.17 260 Indonesia 0.05 773 Brunei 0.03 18,800 The relationship between R&D personnel and GDP per capita (1997-2004) Country Researchers and Technicians Employed in R&D(per million People) GDP per Capita Iran 4,782 2,362 Tunisia 2,903 2,153 Jordan 2,636 1,731 Kazakhstan 1,760 1,655 Turkey 1,445 2,675 Azerbaijan 1,431 760 Brunei 1,091 18,800 Morocco 782 1,237 Indonesia 645 773 Kyrgyzstan 457 321 Sudan 394 657 Malaysia 357 3,884 Guinea 357 391 Kuwait 241 15,753 Saudi Arabia 140 8,785 Mozambique 132 222 Gabon 109 5,505 Pakistan 86 502 Bangladesh 77 336 Uganda 38 225 Burkina Faso 33 260 Tasks for the Statistician Enlargement of the conventional task A non-conventional task Enlargement of the Conventional Task Indicators of environment Share of protected area to total surface area Carbon dioxide emission Indicators of progress in Science and Technology Share of high technology products in exports and imports Indicators of Millenium Development Goals Number of undernourished persons Dietry energy consumption A Non-Conventional Task for the Statistician Under the circumstances, one can think of a new role for a statistician in monitoring the trends to identify new technological developments and new revolutionary waves (with supporting evidences from pertinent information) and channel this to decision-makers in a timely manner: A non-conventional task for the statistician ! OECD World Forum Fostering the development of evidencebased public choice and facts-based civic dialogue. Improving the effectiveness of indicator work and their use for policy making. Fostering a global conversation about what progress actually means. OECD World Forum, an important undertaking, deserves our support . Ensuring its Success A Carefully Designed Action Plan Encompassing All Stakeholders (allready strong indications for this through the regional meetings) Desired Targets be strategically chosen and transperancy be embedded throughout the Forum road map Enthusiasm, excitement and support from developing countries essential Thank you.