Transcript Ecosystem Health in a ClimaticallyAltered World – Is ‘Species Rescue’ Part of the Prognosis for the Future American Meteorological Society Environmental Sciences Seminar,

Ecosystem Health in a ClimaticallyAltered World – Is ‘Species
Rescue’ Part of the Prognosis for
the Future
American Meteorological Society Environmental Sciences Seminar, DC, Oct. 2008
Dr. Camille Parmesan
Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
Attribution question
Causal link between biological changes and
anthropogenic climate change?
Impacts question
Are changes negative, neutral or beneficial?
Proportion of biodiversity affected at given point?
Vulnerability question
Which species most at risk?
Which regions most sensitive?
Effectiveness of reserve system?
Linkages Among Environmental Issues
Ozone Depletion
Climate Change
Habitat Loss
Sulfate Aerosols
Desertification
Biodiversity Impacts
Nitrogen inputs
Water
Air pollution
Assessing Climate Change Impacts
• Multiple anthropogenic forces (confounded)
•Climate change
•Land use change
•Habitat loss (urbanization, agriculture)
•Increases in N, P, C, uv
- focus on studies in undisturbed areas
• Variable quality (sampling, missing data, spatial and
temporal scales) & naturally high yearly variance
• Most data short term, local scale (generality?)
- meta-analyses, focus on broad patterns
• Positive publishing bias
- focus on multi-species studies
ATTRIBUTION by INFERENCE
• Correlational Patterns
– “natural experiments” --- does yearly variation in climatic patterns
(mean temperature, climate & weather extremes) correlate strongly
with yearly variation in biological patterns?
– Long-term patterns (100 years) --- do range shifts and timing shifts
matche temperature shifts?
• Field Manipulations
– How do manipulations of thermal and precipitation environment
affect individual fitness, population persistence and colonization
success?
• Laboratory Experiments
– How does temperature/precipitation affect growth, survival and
reproduction
– Are there absolute thresholds for temperature and precipitation ?
Another Type of ‘Fingerprint’
100% of Species Showed Temporal
“Sign-Switching” (n=44: Parmesan & Yohe Nature 2003)
Global
Average
Temperature
2006 review of global biological impacts
#publications
= 866
#species =
several
thousand
Number of publications documenting a
response of a species, community or system to
recent climate change
Parmesan 2006, Annual Reviews Ecology Evolution and Systematics
Whole Range Study of 57
Species Across Europe
Parmesan et al. (1999).
Poleward shift of butterfly
species’ ranges associated
with regional warming.
Nature 399:579-583.
65 % of 52 species had colonized northward
at northern range boundary
Purple emperor
iris) years, 0.6° C warming)
(30-200
km,(Apatura
30-100
2 independent invasions
Ryrholm unpub.; Kaila & Kullberg pers. Comm.; Henriksen & Kreutzer 1982
Parmesan et al. Nature, 1999
22 % of 40 species contracted at
southern range boundaries
* 1 species range reduction
Sooty copper (Heodes tityrus)
Parmesan et al. Nature, 1999
Purely Ecological Responses
Appear to Dominate
Desert orange tip colonized Spain
(Colotis evagore)
• Historically occasional vagrant
from Africa
• Continuous populations in
Spain since 1983
• Specialist of hot micro-climates
• lab - needs 164 degree days (>12°C)
• lab
- no evolution of diapause
• field & lab
- no host switching
Jordano et al (2000) J Biogeography
Tropical species have moved into USA from
Central America, into Europe from Africa
Florida: 4 new species of dragonflies
(1960-2000)
Paulson 2001
Rufous hummingbird
• Migrant 1900-1990
•Resident by 1996
Texas:
5 new species of butterfly
• Colonized 400 km inland by 1998
Hill et al. 1998, Howell 2002
????
Mexican jay now resident
Some Evidence of Diseases of Wildlife Expanding
Poleward & Upward
• Oyster parasites (protozoa Perkinsus marinus &
Haplosporidium nelsoni) expanded 500 km northward
along US Atlantic coast in past 20 years, causing mass
mortality
- disease outbreaks limited by winter
temperatures < 3° C
(Ford 1996, Hofmann et al. 2001)
• Kidney disease of brown trout linked to reduced
catches at low elevation streams in Switzerland
-correlated with high temperatures, > 15 °C
(Hari et al. 2006)
Andean Glacial Retreat: 3 species of frogs + fungus
migrated 400 m upward over 70 years
(0.3 ° C /decade)
1931
5000 m
2005
5400 m
Pleurodema
marmorata
Bufo
spinulosus
Telmatobius
marmoratus
**Chytrid fungus
Seimon et al. GCB 2007
Arctic Sea Ice down by 40% in 2007
(Area = ~half of lower USA lost) ~2-3° C
Magenta line = mean 1979-2000 = 6.74 mil Sq miles
NOAA, National Snow & Ice Data Center
Ringed Seal
• Declines in abundance (Hudson Bay,
Alaskan coast)
Polar bear
• Need 2 kg fat / day
• Land animals & berries too lean
• Lengthening of ice-free season
• Lengthening of summer starvation
period
• Declines in abundance & weight,
Hudson Bay
• Declines weight & #cubs,
Alaska & Norway
Stirling et al 1999; Derocher et al
2004; Derocher 2005; Ferguson et
al 2005
Changes in Sea
Ice Driving
Species Range
Shifts
Ice-dependent
species declining
by 70 - 95%
• Ice-adapted Adelie & Emperor
– moving poleward
• Warm-adapted Chinstrap &
Gentoo
– Arrived 20-50 years ago
Smith et al. Bioscience 1999; Fraser et al. Polar Biol. 1992;
Emslie et al. Ant. Science 1998
Ice-dependent
species increasing or
smaller declines (<20%)
Mountaintop Species :
• Sensitive to Heat
• Losing habitat as they are forced to
contract upward
American pika
• Live only > 7,500 feet
• Eat constantly
• Adults killed by > 31° C
(~ 90° F)
• Lowest elevation populations have gone
extinct significantly more than higher
elevations (~0.7 °C warming)
Smith 1974, Beever et al. 2003
Observed Changes in Wild Plants and Animals
N=
1598
Parmesan & Yohe, Nature 2003
Extinction of the
Golden toad in
Monteverde
Costa Rica
• Population crashes followed years with
unusually high #dry days, especially
> 5 dry days (mist free) in a row
• No evidence of chrytid fungus at any time
•Climate modeling suggests lifting of cloud forest
• Upward shifts of lowland birds into Monteverde
cloud forest
Pounds et al. Nature 1999
Exceeding SST thresholds causes bleaching
Tahiti: threshold SST = 29.2 °C
Hoegh-guldberg, Marine Freshwater Research 1999
Most negatively affected
species / systems
74 species of high elevation
cloud forest frogs extinct
~ 30% of tropical coral reefs
gone = ?? Species
Parmesan Annual Reviews Ecology Evolution and Systematics 2006; IPCC 2007
Evolution towards warmadapted symbiont has occurred
in Panama in response to
‘97/’98 El Niño
Baker et al 2004
Trends in timing of spring events
among northern temperate species
later
10
5
mean
2.8 days/
decade
advance
0
-5
earlier
-20
Indi vidual species
fi sh
amphi bian
*
bird
butter fly
herbs & gr ass
shrub tr ee
fl y
n = 203
*
timespan = 17
- 99 years
Parmesan (2007) Global Change Biology
U.S. Frost-free Season Length
Departure from average (days)
10
5
0
-5
-10
1895
1910
1925
1940
1955
1970
Year
Length
SpringFrost
FallFrost
Kunkel et al. 2003
1985
2000
Trends in Mean Seasonal Climate 1901 - 2005
(IPCC 2007)
Lengthening growing season, warm winters & pests
Warmer winters, northward
ranges shifts of moths and
beetles, and extended growing
seasons have resulted in
increased forest pest outbreaks
and loss of wood productivity
• Mountain pine beetle (Colorado, British Columbia)
• Spruce bark beetle (3.8 million acres killed in Alaska)
• Pine Processionary moth (Italy, France)
• forest pests in Siberia
1Parmesan
2
& Yohe 2003, Root et al. 2003, Parmesan 2007
IPCC 2001, Logan et al. 2003, Battisti et al. 2005,
Edith’s checkerspot butterfly range has
shifted northward 92 km and upward
124 m during the 20th c.
Most extinctions in south and at
low elevations
Historical records 1860-1980
Census 1993-1996
green = present
purple = extinct
Parmesan Nature, 1996
Edith’s checkerspot
(Euphydryas editha)
Patterns of population
extinctions in natural
areas (good habitat)
52° N
48° N
44° N
40° N
36° N
% extinctions
> 70 %
35 - 55 %
< 20 %
32° N
Trends in Mean Annual Climate
1901 - 2005 (IPCC 2007)
temperature
precipitation
Changes in spring timing driving range shift in
Edith’s checkerspot (Euphydryas editha)
----- Warming Causes Asynchrony
• 2° C experimental warming causes timing mismatch (3 indpt. field experiments)
• Host plants dry up 3-7 days earlier,
• caterpillars starve
• ‘normal’ 90-95% mortality goes to 100%
--- population
extinctions in south
--- northward shift of
mean location of
populations by 92 km
Singer Science 1972, Weiss et al. Ecology 1997,
Boughton et al. 1999, Parmesan Nature 1996
Temperature projections, IPCC 2007
Projected Impacts + 2° C
• Extinctions of most sensitive species – estimated species
losses range from 4% for common, widespread trees and
birds to 40% for sensitive species with small ranges.
• Large contractions of boreal habitats, extinctions of
associated species (e.g. caribou, polar bear, ringed seal)
• Major bleaching of most tropical coral reefs
• Overall projected extinction of 20% of species
• Increased incidences of tropical diseases in USA and
Europe
• Lower agricultural productivity at lower latitudes (some
of USA), but increases at higher latitudes (Canada).
Projected Impacts + 4° C
• Complete loss of suitable climate space for a large
number of species (e.g. from polar bears to montane
tree possums in Australia) and whole ecosystems
(e.g. the fynbos in South Africa)
• Mass extinction of wild species worldwide (on the
order of >70%)
• High ocean temperatures combined with increased
acidity lead to complete loss of tropical coral reefs
with associated loss of fisheries and tourism
• Loss of much of boreal forests and associated
lumber industries
• Lowered agricultural production at all latitudes
IUCN: Consensus on some
susceptibility factors
• Species with severely bounded
distributions under highest risk
- mountain tops, low-lying islands, high
latitudes, edges of continents
- restricted ranges
- poor dispersal relative to predicted nearest
suitable climate space
- IUCN Red List now includes climate change
as “risk” factor, even though doesn’t fit
standard methods of assessment
Assisted Colonization? A Decision Framework
Hoegh-guldberg et al. Science 2008
E.e. quino - Newly discovered sites all higher elevations
than previously recorded for quino
(> 4500 ft, yellow circles)
Endangered Sub-s pe cie s
of Euphydryas e ditha
E. editha taylori
E. editha bayensis
E. editha quino
- appears to be undergoing hostplant shift towards species that
occurs only at higher elevations
Best Candidates for Assisted
colonization / migration
• High risk of extinction if nothing done
• Low probability of doing harm to recipient
community
• NOT a predator / parasite
• Relatively poor competitor
• non-aggressive (behavior or growth)
• Resource specialist
• Easy & cheap to capture, culture & move
• High inherent biological or societal value
Euphydryas gilletti:
successful
‘assisted colonization’
• In 1970s, moved from native Wyoming to
outside of range in Colorado
• same climate, same host plant (honeysuckle)
• Established stable population with few egg
clusters
• No recorded negative impacts on native
ecosystem
Summary of Observed Responses
0.7° C rise globally since 1900
• ~ 41 % of species studied have shifted their
species’ ranges poleward and/or upward
• ~ 62 % of species studied have shifted towards
earlier spring breeding, migrating, leafing,
blooming, etc.
• Every major group studied has been affected
• trees, shrubs, herbs, butterflies, birds, mammals, amphibians,
marine corals, invertebrates, fish & plankton
• Impacts on every continent, in every major ocean
• Northward range shifts from 50 - 1600 km, and
upward shifts of up to 400 m have occurred
Parmesan & Yohe Nature 2003 ; Parmesan, C. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate
change. Annual Reviews of Ecology and Systematics 37:637-669 ; IPCC 2007
Summary of Projected Impacts
• + 2° C (strong action)
• Extinctions of most sensitive species and systems
• + 4° C (little action)
• Widespread extinctions, loss of whole ecosystems
• Either
scenario, doing nothing carries risks
• Conventional conservation inadequate
• Assisted colonization should be an option:
known risk to target species must be
weighed against unknown risks to
recipient communities
Acknowledgements
Collaborators (raw butterfly & bird data, conceptualization, climate analyses)
D Bauer, D Boughton, H Descimon, DR Easterling, PR Ehrlich, J Emmel, H
Galbraith, JK Hill, O Hoegh-Guldberg, B Huntley, Hinkley, L Kaila, T Karl, J Kullberg,
JJ Lennon, J Matthews, G Meehl, S Matoon, DD Murphy, B Pyle, N Ryrholm,
O Shields, MC Singer, C Stefanescu, T Tammaru, J Tennent, CD Thomas, JA
Thomas, M Warren, B Wee, G Yohe
General support
University of Texas, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (Montpellier)
Carnegie Instutute, Aspen Global Change Institute, San Diego NHM, American
MNH, Smithsonian MNH, British MNH, LAMNH, UC Davis, Cornell
Material and Images partly from:
* The Millennium Atlas of Butterflies in Britain and Ireland (Asher et al. 2001)
* Field Guide to the Butterflies of Britain & Europe (Higgins & Riley 1970)
* Atlas of Finnish Macrolepidoptera (Hulden et al. 2000)
* The Butterflies of Scandinavia in Nature (Henriksen & Kreutzer 1982)
* A World of Butterflies (Schappert 2000)
* Environmental Sciences Institute, University of Texas
* United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
* NASA
* Ove Hoegh-Guldberg
* Kristina Schlegel & Nelson Guda (artists)
Human health impacts from climate
change operate through biodiversity
changes
Biodiversity Change and Human Health:
From Ecosystem Services
to Spread of Disease
Editors: Osvaldo E. Sala, Laura Meyerson and
Camille Parmesan (Island Press, 2008)
Quality of Life
Medicines
Genes
Biodiversity
Infectious
Disease
Ecosystem
Services
Physical
Health
Health &
Well Being
Quality of Life
Medicines
Genes
Infectious
Disease
Ecosystem
Services
Physical
Health
Health &
Well Being
Impacts on Human Health Highly
Dependent on Social Factors
Ozone
Depletion
Climate
Change
Sulfate
Aerosols
Wealth
Habitat
Loss
Biodiversity
Impacts
Quality of
Medical system
Health
Impacts
Access to
Medical System
Overgrazing
Hydrology
changes
Sanitation
Nitrogen
inputs
Air pollution
Demographics
Vector
control
Oysters can be Deadly in Hot Waters
• Vibrio vulnificus Bacteria occur in oysters in Gulf of
Mexico
• 30 - 48 % of people who get ill die
• 60 % of variation in abundance related to water
temperature
• 89 % of humans ill from V. vulnificus from eating oysters
caught in waters > 22° C (~78° F)
• Hurricanes Rita & Katrina formed in Gulf 4° C hotter
than normal
• Geographic variation in thermal ecology?
• Experimental evidence for effects of temperature of
Vibrio vulnificus growth and survival?
Cholera Associated with El Niño in Bangladesh
1980 - 1996
Pascual 2000
Vector-borne diseases
• For common diseases with epidemics linked to
climate, 67 % are transmitted by a wild animal
vector, or are dependent on wild animals as resevoirs
for some life history stage
• Tick that carries lyme disease, shifted northward SW
• Oyster parasite moved 500 km N, US Atlantic coast
• Well-documented studies in SW USA desert:
El Niño years = wet = increased rodent densities =
plague and hanta virus outbreaks in humans
Cleveland et al. 2001; Gubler 2001, WHO 2003, 2004, Parmesan & Martens 2008, Ford 1996
1 Engelthaler
et al. 1999, Parmenter et al. 1999, Glass et al. 2000, Gulber et al. 2001
Extra bits follow
Very Severe Declines in Ice-adapted Species
Ringed Seal
• Declines in abundance
Polar bear
• Declines in abundance,
weight & #cubs
• Ice-adapted Adelie & Emperor
• contracting at South Pole
• Warm-adapted Chinstrap &
Gentoo
• Arrived 20-50 years ago
Option 1. Wide spread and common
species. Continue and improve
conventional conservation approaches
low
Decision 1. What is the risk of significant decline or
extinction under climate change?
Projections:
Problem: relative low rate of adaptation and dispersal
Example, mountain top species (see text) Ref – IUCN.
Option 2. Genetic enhancement to
improve climate robustness of populations
within existing geographic range.
moderate
Option 3. Invoke ex situ conservation
practices***
high
no
Decision 2 Is establishment technical possible?
difficulties of establishment (symbioses, close
associates etc). Is establishment technical possible?
no
Option 4. Create habitat (e.g. artif. Reef,
wetlands) and/or experiment with
translocation into novel habitats
(‘informed guesses’)
yes
Decision 3. Do benefits of translocation outweigh the
costs? Are there any socio-economic constraints that
render this impossible? Risks to native biodiversity and
ecosystems services at target site (including disease,
competition, predation) Depletion of source
populations … and socio-economic considerations …
(numbers of individuals available, feasible, animal
welfare, costs, Are the expected benefits greater than
the expected costs … e.g. impacts on other species
(hybridizations).
yes
Option 4. Undertake translocation.
no
Will the organisms arrive on their own to
new habitat …
yes
Option 5. Wait and facilitate
establishment (protect arrivals)
no
Go to options 2 and 3
Assisted Colonization
Hoegh-guldberg et al. 2008
Estimated: More than Half of Wild Species have Responded
to 20th c. Climate Change
(36 studies; >1700 species; ~ 1598 datapoints)
Nminimu m
(#species or
functional
groups)
Changed in
direction
predicted
(n)
Changed in
opposite to
prediction
(n)
Stable
(n)
Type of change
taxa studied
Phenological
trees, shrubs, herbs
birds, frogs
butterflies
242
43 %
6%
52 %
at poleward range edges
(high elevation limits)
trees, herbs,
mamm als, birds
butterflies
150
63 %
13 %
15 %
at equatorial range edges
(low elevation limits)
birds, butterflies
186
13 %
9%
77 %
cold-adapted
shrubs, herbs,
reptiles, amp hibeans,
fish, marine
zooplankton &
invertebrates
141
27 %
1%
71 %
115
85 %
11 %
3%
Distributional
changes
(expansions &
contractions along
range edges)
community
changes
(local abundance
changes)
warm- adapted
No
prediction
(n)
10 %
1%
Parmesan & Yohe (2003). A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts in natural systems. Nature 421:37-42.
Northward shift
of the winter
range of the
Sachem Skipper
butterfly
caterpillars killed by
• Single event
1/2 hr < -10° C
• Several hours
< - 4° C
• Colonization in real
time shows no evolution
of temperature
tolerance or life history
Lisa Crozier (2003) Oecologia,
(2004) Ecology
Issues to Consider when Interpreting
Trends
• Non-response has multiple causes
•Species not sensitive to climate
•Poor data resolution - no power
•lag time
•Barriers to dispersal (habitat fragmentation)
•Genetic or physiological constraints - prelude to extinction
• “Small” ≠ “Unimportant”
Weak but persistent forces will have a major impact
on long-term trajectories, perhaps more than strong
but short-lived forces.
Checquered skipper
Population extinctions (orange color) in southern UK and Finland caused
by land use change (no more coppicing). But, at both northern and
southern boundaries of species’ range populations, where habitat is still
good, are present and healthy (blue color). So species is NOT impacted
by) climate change (stable), even though it’s a listed endangered species.
Parmesan et al (1999) Nature
ATTRIBUTION by INFERENCE
Example: Euphydryas editha butterfly
• Correlational Patterns - YES
– Long-term patterns (100 years) --- range shift matches
temperature isotherm shift and matches changes in snowpack
dynamics
(Parmesan 1996, Karl et al. 1996, Johnson 1998)
– “natural experiments” (40 years) --- below 2400 m, population
extinctions occur in drought years and following false springs (light
snowpack). Above 2400m, booms occur with heavy snowpack
(Singer & Ehrlich 1979, Singer & Thomas 1996, McLaughlin et al. 2002)
• Field Manipulations - YES
– manipulating thermal environment affects individual fitness and
colonization success
(Singer 1972, Weiss et al. 1988, 1993,, Boughton 1999)
• Laboratory Experiments - YES
– temperature affects larval growth
(Weiss et al 1988, Hellmann 2000)
Confounding Factors
• NO - Genetic diversity not different in populations that went
extinct compared to those that didn’t
• NO - Age of population (record)
• NO - Population size (habitat size)
• NO - Population isolation
• NOT STRONGLY - Topography
• NO - Human influences
• Habitat degradation
• Secondary effects of urbanization
• YES - Resource use
– host plant genus DOES affect likelihood of
extinction, but not responsible for range shift