Transcript WG-MWFR activities WWRP Jeanette Onvlee Chair WWRP/WG-MWFR JSC meeting, 11-13 April 2012 Current membership Dale Barker (UK Met Office) Stephane Belair (Env Can) Jimy Dudhia (NCAR) Jeanette Onvlee.

WG-MWFR activities
WWRP
Jeanette Onvlee
Chair WWRP/WG-MWFR
JSC meeting, 11-13 April 2012
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Current membership
Dale Barker (UK Met Office)
Stephane Belair (Env Can)
Jimy Dudhia (NCAR)
Jeanette Onvlee (chair)
Mathias Rotach (Univ. Innsbruck)
Kazuo Saito (JMA/MRI)
Peter Steinle (BOM)
Volker Wulfmeyer (Univ Hohenheim)
Hui Yu (CMA)
WWRP
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Activities in the past year
Involvement in existing RDP’s/FDP’s and projects
Involvement in (possible) new RDP/FDPs
Dedicated workshops on specific topics
Various other activities
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COPS final activities
Dedicated issue of QJRMS, 2011
Dedicated issue in Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 2012
Final COPS workshop: session in EGU
Final report to be submitted after EGU
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Major COPS Results and Conclusions
1) Logistics: Data collection and harmonization, common visualization
tools, air traffic control, data base, ...
2) Processes: better understanding of processes influencing convective
precipitation over orography
(behaviour of evapotranspiration, CAPE and CIN, influence of
thermodynamically-induced flow on convective initiation,...)
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3) Model performance and verification: Extensive validation of
convection-permitting vs coarser models
(overestimation of transpiration at low soil moisture, too deep BL over
mountains, vertical wind too low in convergence zones, windward-lee
effects leading to displacement of convergence zone triggering CI at
wrong locations, better diurnal cycle of precip and QPF by convectionpermitting models,...)
COPS Precipitation Statistics
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Meteo
MeteoSwiss
SwissCOSMO7
COSMO2with
without
parameterization
parameterization
of deep
of
deep
convection,
convection,
7-km
2.2 km
gridgrid
resolution
resolution
COPS precipitation
climatology (June to
August, 2007).
3-month integrated
precipitation of
model - observations.
Convection-permitting models reduce the windward-lee effect
and improve the simulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation.
Major COPS Results and Conclusions
4) Demonstration of new observations:
Water-vapor and temperature lidar; GPS STD and tomography;
ground-based and airborne sensors of cloud microphysical
properties; lidar aerosol data
• Much more can be exploited with the COPS data set, emphasis should be
on studying ABL and microphysics.
• New lidar technology available for long-term operational measurements.
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5) Data assimilation and predictability:
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Positive impact of assimilating GPS STD, radar winds and reflectivity
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Orography can increase the predictability of convection.
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The lead time is not limited by the lifetime of convective cells but by the
lifetime of the forcing conditions leading to convection.
• COPS
Multi-model
ensemble
provided
improved
simulation
of convective
and D-PHASE
data can
be used
as DA testbed,
unique
for verification
cells (14 h lead time).
studies
•More impact studies and testing and comparison of different DA techniques
still need to be done.
Last activities Beijing 08 RDP/FDP
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Overview article in
BAMS, March 2012
FROST-14
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Combined RDP/FDP on nowcasting/mesoscale deterministic and
probabilistic modelling, as meteorological support of Sochi 2014
Winter Games.
 Winter nowcasting/short-range forecasting in complex terrain
 Kickoff meeting of FROST-14: March 2011. Second meeting:
April 2012.
 Scientific plan: written, to be discussed at this meeting
 Role WG-MWFR: finding partners, participation, advice to
organizers (learn from SNOW-V10 and other experiences)
Issues of concern:
 Availability of observations for DA: relatively few local data, radar
delayed??
 LAMEPS: Sufficient attention to teaching forecasters how to use
this?
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HYMEX/TTM4
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One of the (newest) task teams of HYMEX, led by a WG-MWFR
member
Aim: set up testbed for DA based on HYMEX SOP data;
organize/perform data assimilation experiments on e.g.:
 Test more flow-dependent assimilation techniques (4D-VAR,
hybrid ensemble assimilation, field alignment, …)
 Impact of new high-resolution observation types and how to
make the best possible use of them
 Rapid update cycling, spinup, balance, and usefulness of
mesoscale models/analysis systems for nowcasting
 Coupling aspects
Interest for participation gathered, solidify plans in next meeting at
HYMEX workshop
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WWRP
Some promising
new obs types
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Grey zone project
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subgroup from WGNE, WG-MWFR, GCSS tasked to set up
idealized grey zone experiment
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Idea: Set up basic experimental framework and gain participants for
initial “simple” extratropical case of cold air outbreak over sea, in
2011-2012. Later extend this framework and modelling community
to other cases, including e.g. deep convection in tropics, open cell
convection over land.
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Status: Interest expressed by ~10 modelling groups. Case prepared,
ready for release in May 2012. First results to be discussed in PanGASS meeting, Sep 2012.
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Possible new RDP: TOMACS
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TOkyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study
Project of ~25 Japanese orgnizations, aimed at making urban areas
more weather-resilient
 TOMACS field campaign (2011-2013)
 Improvement of early detection and warning systems
 Social experiments in rescue services, risk management etc.
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Originally purely Japanese initiative
However, plenty of scope for international cooperation
 Instrumentation
 Subsequent studies on urban meteorology / very high resolution
modelling / improved nowcasting/short-term forecasting and warning
systems
 Social aspect of weather-resilience
=> International RDP project in preparation
 Interest expressed by research groups in ~10 countries
 Draft plan tbd at international kickoff meeting Oct 2012
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Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study for extreme weather
resilient city (TOMACS)
Core Research Institutes:
National Research Institute for Earth
Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED)
Meteorological Research Institute (MRI)
Toyo University
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Collaborated with 23 organizations:
NILIM, Japan Weather Association, NICT,
ENRI, Hokkaido Univ., DPRI/Kyoto Univ.,
Osaka Univ., Yamanashi Univ., Chuo Univ.,
Nihon Univ., National Defense Academy,
TMRI, CRIEP, Tokyo Fire Department,
Yokohama City, Fujisawa City, EdogawaKu/Tokyo, JR-EAST, JR-CENTRAL,
Obayashi Co., Toshiba Co., Pukyong
National Univ., Corolado State Univ.
Social Experiments on Extreme Weather Resilient Cities
Target: Local Heavy Rainfall in Urban Areas
Subject 1： Field Experiments TOMACS
Many types of deep convection are generated in
the warm season in the Tokyo Metropolitan area
【Meteorology】
To obtain new insight on mechanisms of extreme weather
(1) Development of new technologies
(2) Field campaign in the Tokyo area (3) Statistical analysis
New observation facilities
to Issue More Accurate and Adequate Warning
Subject 2: Early Detection and Prediction System
Field campaign in the
Tokyo Metropolitan area
Understanding the
mechanism
to Evaluate and to Adapt the Nowcasting Systems
Subject 3： Social Experiments
【Sociology】
Developments collaborating with end users
(1) Extreme weather nowcasting methods
(2) Development of test-beds of nowcasting systems
(3) Extreme weather database
Monitoring/Nowcasting
Evaluation and adaption the developed nowcasting system
(1) Social experiments in rescue services, risk management,
infrastructure and education
(2) Recommendations for extreme weather resilient cities
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【Engineering】
System
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Hazard Map
Nowcasting
2. Field campaign in TOMACS (2011-2013)
A field campaign in the Tokyo metropolitan area with a dense observation network is conducted
by MRI1, NIED2 and 12 research institutions in the summers 2011-2013, as a testbed for deep
convection.
MRI C-band
Solid-state MP
Radar
Ku-band Fast Scan
MP Radar
2DVD Radar
Calibration site
MTSAT
Rapid Scan
Ｘ－ＮＥＴ
(NIEDS and cooperative org.)
JMA Operation
Doppler Radars
Scintillation
Meter
Dense Surface
Doppler Lidars
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Network
JMA Lightning
Detection Systems
Microwave
radiometers
Wind Profilers
GPS Receivers
Radiosonde
Humid Warm Air
Relatively Cool Air
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Forecast accuracy
Limit of deterministic forecast
Nowcasting
Cloud resolving model
and data assimilation
Short range forecast for
precipitation
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Reduce the gap
between nowcasting
and NWP by highresolution data
assimilation
Current NWP model
Extrapolation
2h
6hr
1day
Forecast period
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3．Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF)
Cloud resolving 4DVAR with cloud microphysics
(Kawabata et al., 2011; Mon. Wea. Rev.)
Kessler warm rain process was implemented
in LT/ADJ models.
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4DVAR assimilation of
• Doppler Radar’s Radial Winds
• Radar Reflectivity
• GPS precipitable water vapor
• Surface observations (wind, temperature)
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Data archive
data
archive
format
plan
Satellite Rapid Scan
Archived at MRI
NETCDF
JMA Doppler radars
Archived at MRI
GRIIB2
JMA Airport lidars
Archived at MRI
SIGMET (convertible to
DRAFT)
MILT MP radars
Archived at MRI
NETCDF
X-NET radars
Archived at NIED
NETCDF (Level 1-2)
See another table
JMA AWS (AMeDAS)
Accessible from JMA
network
Original
to be converted to
NETCDF
SYNOP, sonde, Wind
profilers, LIDEN
Accessible from JMA
network
Original
GPS TPW
Archived at MRI
Original text file
JMA Mesoscale
analysis
Archived at MRI
Original file (NuSDAS)
4DVAR 5kmL50
3 hourly
JMA hourly analysis
planned
Original file
3DVAR 5 kmL17
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6. Liaison with the Dallas Fort Worth Urban Weather
Demonstration
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Potential partners
Korea: Pugyon National University, Ewha Womans
University
USA: CSU, NCAR, University Georgia, CAPS/OU,
Univ Massachusetts
Brazil: Sao Paulo University
Australia: CAWCR
Austria: ZAMG
Canada: EC
Germany: DWD
Hong Kong: HKO
China: Nanjing University
Milestones
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Field campaign: Summers of 2011-2013
Symposium and Kickoff meeting
 International symposium on extreme weather on Urban area
23-24, October, 2012, Tokyo (Okuyo Hall)
 TOMACS RDP Kick-off Meeting
25, October, 2012, Tsukuba (MRI or NIED)
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RDP Proposal: April, 2013
RDP International Workshops: Autumn, 2013-2015
Organization
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International Science Steering Committee
Local organization committee
International Advisory Board
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Other (possible) new projects
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WG-MWFR participation in:
 INCA-CE SAB
 PPP project?
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Proposal to cooperate with JWGFVR in ICP2 project (intercomparison of spatial verification methods in complex terrain,
using COPS (and later HYMEX SOP?) data)
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Role in Lake Victoria project under consideration ??
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Role in TM-related activities under consideration
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Workshop “Use of NWP in support of nowcasting”
Joint WG-NR - WG-MWFR Workshop, August 2011, Boulder.
Aims:
Strengthen interaction between NWP and NWC communities
Confront present and future prospects of NWP for NWC with
challenges of NWC, recommendations on way forward
WWRP
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~45 participants
Workshop considered necessary and useful by participants,
wish expressed for follow-up workshop in a few years
Article for BAMS in preparation
More follow-up actions to be considered in WGNR – WGMWFR
meeting in August 2012
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Workshop HiRCoT12
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High Resolution modelling in Complex Terrain: held in Vienna,
February 2012
Aims: review status, prospects and challenges of high-resolution
modelling in complex terrain and the problems therein
Sessions on limitations in parameterizations, numerical issues,
input data and initialization, and computational issues
Introductory presentations, much discussion
Participants: ~30 (mostly Eur, N Am)
WMO support requested/used to make participations more
“world-wide”
“High-resolution numerical modeling in complex terrain is a hot
issue, many groups have the same problems (and some have
also solutions), and all this is worthwhile to be shared in the
community.“
Publication summarizing discussions and conclusions is
intended.
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WWRP
Various other activities
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Preparations for workshop on physiographic data for highresolution NWP models (temporarily halted due to funding
problems)
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Organization of LAM EPS training for duty forecasters in
cooperation with EUMETCAL (March 2012)
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Activities aiming at promoting international exchange of radar
volume data within Europe for DA purposes
 Contacts EUMETNET/SRNWP and OPERA
 Radar data for HYMEX SOP
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Meetings/contacts
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Last WG-MWFR meeting: Berlin, September 2011
Contacts with JWGFVR
 Joint meeting, Berlin, Sept 2011
 verification of clouds, extreme weather, LAM EPS, ...
 Organize ICP2?
Contacts with WGNR
 Workshop on use of NWP as tool in support of nowcasting
 Nowcasting Symposium, Rio de Janeiro August 2012
 Common activities in FROST14, Hymex, TOMACS, INCA-CE,
Lake Victoria, …
Contacts with WGNE/GASS
 Grey zone experimentation
 Physiography workshop
Thorpex/DAOS: WG-MWFR participation; joint activities?
TIGGE-LAM: chair ex-officio member of WG-MWFR
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Actions from JSC-4
 Action 17: lessons learnt from COPS
Summary in this presentation; Final report to be provided after
COPS final meeting (EGU)
 Action 18: status reports on Grey zone project
Included in WG-report, also in WGNE presentation
WWRP
 Action 19: project Sochi 2014
see agenda item on FROST-14.
 Action 20: joint scoping workshop NWP in nowcasting
Done
 Action 21: Prepare inventory of available training material
Ongoing
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