Transcript WG-MWFR activities in the past year Existing RDP’s/FDP’s and projects New RDP/FDPs: later this meeting Workshops and publications Various other activities Meetings and liaisons with.

WG-MWFR activities in the past year
Existing RDP’s/FDP’s and projects
New RDP/FDPs: later this meeting
Workshops and publications
Various other activities
Meetings and liaisons with other WMO WG’s
WWRP
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JSC meeting, 17-19 July 2013
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COPS final activities
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Dedicated issues of QJRMS, 2011 and Meteorol. Zeitschrift, 2012
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Final COPS workshop: session in EGU, April 2012
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Final report:
WWRP
www.uni-hohenheim.de/spp-iop/documents/
130506_COPS_WWRP_Final_Report_Draft.pdf
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FROST-14
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Combined RDP/FDP on nowcasting/mesoscale
deterministic and probabilistic modelling, as
meteorological support of Sochi 2014 Winter Games.
Winter nowcasting/short-range forecasting in complex
terrain
FDP component: observation network largely ready,
forecaster training ongoing, not all models routinely
available yet.
RDP component: focus on (sub-)km-scale modelling
and ens forecasting. Common efforts??Follow-up after
end of Games??
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OBSERVATIONAL NETWORKS
Now up and running /
available online RT
Several providers
(RosHydromet, IRAM,
Meteofon)
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QA/QC not operational yet
(based on COSMO-2.2)
Possible contribution from
Turkey for the radars
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PARTICIPANTS to MESOSCALE NWP RDP / FDP
DETERMINISTIC COMPONENT
RosHydromet (together with MeteoSwiss and DWD),
COSMO-RU, 1-km grid spacing, 3DVAR, km-scale data
assimilation (radar, satellite)
Environment Canada, GEM, 2.5-km, 1-km, and 250-m
grid spacing, analysis at 10-km (soon EnVar, now
4DVAR). Possible downscaling to 100-m grid spacing.
FMI, Harmonie, 2.5-km, 1.5-km, and 1-km grid spacing
WWRP
NOAA, NMMB, 1-km grid spacing, initialized from GFS.
KMA, UM, 1-km grid spacing, analysis from global model
(25 km), downscaling to several meters for venues
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PARTICIPANTS to MESOSCALE NWP RDP / FDP
ENSEMBLE COMPONENT
RosHydromet, will attempt to include an EPS, COSMORU7-EPS. Possibility of running a 2.2-km ensemble.
ARPA-SIMC, COSMO-S14-EPS, 7-km grid spacing.
HIRLAM, GLAMEPS 11-km and HarmonEPS 2.5-km.
ZAMG, Aladin-LAEF, 11-km grid spacing
WWRP
NOAA, 7-member NMMB at 7-km grid spacing.
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PARTICIPANTS to MESOSCALE NWP RDP / FDP
NOWCASTING COMPONENT (and other systems)
RosHydromet, integrated multi-model nowcasting
ZAMG, INCA
FMI, road weather model.
IRAM (Russia), nowcasting with MeteoExpert
WWRP
Environment Canada, CARDS, INTW, ABOM
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NOAA – NMMB deterministic
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Environment Canada, deterministic
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READINESS for FDP
Only about half of the centers provided input in real time during the
latest practice period.
As anticipated, difficult for RosHydromet’s forecasters to use
products from the foreign numerical prediction systems.
Time is running fast, the new products will have to come online very
quickly.
Another test period in September and October… chance of training
with new systems.
WWRP
Team of scientists to advise in real time, but difficulties associated
with language and with the forecasters tight time schedule
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POSSIBLE SCIENTIFIC OUTCOMES (RELATED to
MODELING)
Impact of resolution, physics
Impact of surface characteristics (e.g., snow)
Products of interest: wind gusts, visibility, snow-rain ratio, precip type
Prediction / modeling of clouds and precipitation in general (interest
in precipitation types)
Complementarity of 7-km ensemble systems and higher-resolution
deterministic systems for this type of region.
Calibration of ensembles.
WWRP
A multi-model ensemble.
Data assimilation: performance of a few approaches, e.g., nudging
vs 3DVAR.
After the Games: Follow-up in terms of research/analysis of
outcomes? Some common write-up of outcomes??
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The 2018 WINTER GAMES in PyeongChang
WWRP
KMA interest for FDP / RDP
Strong observational and systems support, early start!
WG-MWFR considers this a very good opportunity for data assimilation
and process and VHR modeling studies
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Grey zone project
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WWRP
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WGNE project endorsed by 2011 JSC: subgroup from WGNE, WGMWFR, GCSS to jointly set up idealized grey zone experimentation
Run several LES systems at several 100m resolution as “truth”,
make model simulations at stepwise progressively coarser
resolutions throughout grey zone range, for different models. 1- and
3D- analysis of outcome.
Set up basic experimental framework and gain participants for initial
“simple” extratropical case of cold air outbreak over sea, in 20112012. Study evolution of convection and BL for this case. Later
extend this framework and modelling community to other cases,
including e.g. deep convection in tropics, open cell convection over
land.
Status: Expressed interest by 10+ modelling groups. Case tested
with 2 CRM’s and fully defined and released to LAM/global
modellers by Dec 2012. Regional and global model runs started in
2013.
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WWRP
31st January 2010
 Aircraft obs
 Radar obs
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© Crown copyright
Met
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Office
WWRP
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© Crown copyright
Met
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Office
WWRP
Other ongoing and new projects
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Limited involvement of WG-MWFR members in:
 PPP
 HYMEX
 INCA-CE SAB
 SCMREX SAB
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Preparations for Lake Victoria “understanding” project: see WGNR
report
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Proposal for international RDP on TOMACS
Proposal to extend Typhoon landfall FDP typhoon product exchange
and model intercomparison to regional/mesoscale models
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Proposal to cooperate with JWGFVR in ICP2 project (intercomparison of spatial methods in complex terrain)??
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Publications from workshops
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NWP in Nowcasting workshop, Oct 2011: Article Sun et al. accepted
for publication in BAMS
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High resolution modelling in Complex Terrain (HirCoT12, Feb 2012):
Paper in Croatian Meteorological
Journal:
WWRP
BOKU Met
Report
JSC meeting, 11-13
17-19 April
July 2013
2012
Issues in high-resolution atmospheric
modeling in complex topography - The
HiRCoT workshop
D. Arnold, D. Morton, I. Schicker, P. Seibert,
M. W. Rotach, K. Horvath, J. Dudhia, T.
Satomura, M. Müller, G. Zängl, T. Takemi,
S. Serafin, J. Schmidli, S. Schneider
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Various other activities
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WWRP
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On-line LAM EPS training for duty forecasters in cooperation with
EUMETCAL (March 2012)
Activities aiming at promoting international exchange of
observations relevant for mesoscale DA for research (e.g.
Hymex) and operational purposes
Tigge-LAM: Start with LAM EPS archive at ECMWF in GEOWOW
Active in definition of EUMETNET/SRNWP EPS and Nowcasting
programmes
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17-19 April
July 2013
2012
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Radar volume data: critical source for mesoscale DA
but problematic access for NWP across borders
Much operational evidence for positive impact of radar volume (reflectivity
and wind) data. Relative importance of radar data vs other obs especially
large for fine-scale models
For smaller countries, access of radar data across borders is highly
problematic: data policy, data exchange and data format differences are
limitations
OPERA ODIM data model very helpful, but doesn’t solve all problems (yet).
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Large coverage of model domain by even spread of radars appears critical
to timescale of positive impact!
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Spectral decomposition
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Higher reduction of variance error for wavelengths corresponding to
the higher values of variance spectra
For wavelengths shorter than :
 200 km, only radar and plane measurements for temperature ( GPS
for specific humidity) contribute to the variance reduction
 100 km, the variance reduction reach only 5% of the error variance
and it is only provided by radar observations
WWRP
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Varian
ce
spectr
um
Mode-S observations:
a high-density data source of interest
Observations made by every aircraft for
Period 2012/08/09 10:00-10:15
ATC: ff,ddd straightforward to derive, T with
some approximation
All observations (259135) Below FL100 (30647)
Quality after QC/BC: comparable to radio
soundings for ff,ddd, slightly worse for T,
but very dense dataset!
Impact studies: significant positive
impact!
WWRP
Data preprocessing/quality control/bias
correction algorithms available
Discussions with several ATC centers to
arrange real-time data provision (latency:
<10min) for a large European area.
Intention: formal arrangements for free
availability (at zero cost) of these data to
NMS’s for official duty. Eurocontrol
Maastricht data available for NMS’s via ftp
from July 2013 on.
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Meetings/contacts
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Last WG-MWFR meeting: Montreal, May 2013
Contacts with WGNR
 Nowcasting Symposium, Rio de Janeiro August 2012
 Chair WG-NR at WG-MWFR meeting Montreal
 Common activities in FROST14, TOMACS, INCA-CE, Lake
Victoria, …
 Discussions on merging activities
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WGNE/GASS
WWRP
 Grey zone experimentation
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Thorpex/DAOS
TIGGE-LAM
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July 2013
2012
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WWRP
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TOMACS
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TOkyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study
Project of ~25 Japanese institutes/authorities, aimed at making
megacity urban areas more weather-resilient
 Summertime field campaigns (2011-2013)
 Improvement of early detection and warning systems
 Social experiments in rescue services, risk management etc.
Originally purely Japanese initiative
However, plenty of scope for international cooperation and follow-up
research on the basis of the TOMACS database
 Studies on instrumentation / urban meteorology / very high resolution
modelling / improved nowcasting/short-term forecasting and warning
systems
 Social aspect of weather-resilience: mostly Japanese activity
WWRP
=> International TOMACS RDP project in preparation
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Interest expressed by research groups in ~10 countries
Data policy for TOMACS database established
Kickoff meeting October 2012, RDP plan written
Request for endorsement by JSC
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Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study for extreme weather
resilient city (TOMACS)
Core Research Institutes:
National Research Institute for Earth
Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED)
Meteorological Research Institute (MRI)
Toyo University
WWRP
Collaborated with 23 organizations:
NILIM, Japan Weather Association, NICT,
ENRI, Hokkaido Univ., DPRI/Kyoto Univ.,
Osaka Univ., Yamanashi Univ., Chuo Univ.,
Nihon Univ., National Defense Academy,
TMRI, CRIEP, Tokyo Fire Department,
Yokohama City, Fujisawa City, EdogawaKu/Tokyo, JR-EAST, JR-CENTRAL,
Obayashi Co., Toshiba Co., Pukyong
National Univ., Corolado State Univ.
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Social Experiments on Extreme Weather Resilient Cities
Target: Local Heavy Rainfall in Urban Areas
Subject 1： Field Experiments TOMACS
Many types of deep convection are generated in
the warm season in the Tokyo Metropolitan area
【Meteorology】
To obtain new insight on mechanisms of extreme weather
(1) Development of new technologies
(2) Field campaign in the Tokyo area (3) Statistical analysis
New observation facilities
to Issue More Accurate and Adequate Warning
Subject 2: Early Detection and Prediction System
【Engineering】
WWRP
Developments collaborating with end users
(1) Extreme weather nowcasting/SR forecasting methods
(2) Development of test-beds of nowcasting/SR forecasting
systems
Monitoring/Nowcasting
(3) Extreme weather database
System
Field campaign in the
Tokyo Metropolitan area
Understanding the
mechanism
to Evaluate and to Adapt the Nowcasting Systems
Subject 3： Social Experiments
【Sociology】
Evaluation and adaption the developed nowcasting/SR
forecasting system
(1) Social experiments in rescue services, risk management,
infrastructure and education
(2) Recommendations for extreme weather resilient cities
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Hazard Map
Nowcasting
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High density field campaign
A field campaign in the Tokyo metropolitan area with a dense observation network is planned by
MRI, NIED and 12 research groups in the summers of 2011-2013, as an international testbed for
deep convection.
MRI C-band
Solid-state MP
Radar
Ku-band Fast Scan
MP Radar
2DVD Radar
Calibration site
MTSAT
Rapid Scan
Ｘ－ＮＥＴ
(NIEDS and cooperative org.)
JMA Operation
Doppler Radars
Scintillation
Meter
Dense Surface
Doppler Lidars
WWRP
Network
JMA Lightning
Detection Systems
Microwave
radiometers
Wind Profilers
GPS Receivers
Radiosonde
Relatively Cool Air
Humid Warm Air
Research Aircraft
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WWRP
IOP in 2013
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■：IOP
■：sonde observation
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WWRP
Liaison with the Dallas Fort Worth Urban Weather
Demonstration
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TOMACS RDP Kick-off Meeting, participants from 8
countries. 25 October, 2012, Tsukuba Center for Institutes,
http://www.mpsep.jp/notify/369.html
New PI: Dr. T. Nakatani of NIED
Proposal prepared for international TOMACS RDP,
request for endorsement by JSC
WWRP
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International participation
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WWRP
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Korea: Pugyon National Univ. (2DVD, Pol.radar, nowcasting and modeling)
Yonsei Univ. (boundary layer and cloud microphysics)
Ewha Womans Univ. (sensitivity analysis and optimal parameter estimation)
USA: NCAR (data assimilation)
Univ. Georgia (urban meteorology)
CAPS/OU (NWP nowcasting, data assimilation, radar meteorology)
CSU, Univ. Massachusetts (D-FW and social experiments there)
Brazil: Sao Paulo Univ. (nowcasting and modelling)
Australia: BoM (nowcasting, data assimilation)
Canada: EC(nowcasting, urban modeling)
Germany：Univ. Hohenheim (data assimilation)
France: UANPE (precipitation)
Hong Kong: HKO (radars and nowcasting)
China: Nanjing University (radar meteorology, modeling)
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WWRP
RDP period and organization
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Period 3 years: July 2013-June 2016
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International Participants
International Science Steering Committee
International Advisory Board
Local organization committee
Further milestones if accepted:
 1st RDP International Workshop
(December, 2013 in Tsukuba)
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Further RDP International Workshops
(2014 and 2015)
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Budgetary background
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5 years (2010.4-2015.3) science funding from JST/MEXT
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2.3 million US dollars per year
New funding is sought for Apr 2015 – June 2016
WWRP
(Japan Science and Technology Agency/Ministry of
Education,Culture,Sports,Science & Technology in Japan)
http://www.jst.go.jp/EN/index.html
http://www.mext.go.jp/english/
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Data archive
WWRP
Most data available in standard formats, NetCdf or with convertors to NetCdf:
data
archive
format
Satellite Rapid Scan
Archived at MRI
NETCDF
JMA Doppler radars
Archived at MRI
GRIB2
JMA Airport lidars
Archived at MRI
SIGMET (convertible to
DRAFT)
MILT MP radars
Archived at MRI
NETCDF
X-NET radars
Archived at NIED
NETCDF (Level 1-2)
See another table
JMA AWS (AMeDAS)
Accessible from JMA
network
Original
to be converted to
NETCDF
SYNOP, sonde, Wind
profilers, LIDEN
Accessible from JMA
network
Original
GPS TPW
Archived at MRI
Original text file
JMA Mesoscale
analysis
Archived at MRI
Original file (NuSDAS)
4DVAR 5kmL50
3 hourly
Original file
3DVAR 5 kmL17
JMA hourly analysis
planned
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plan
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Data policy
WWRP
International registered participants are regarded as the participants of
“Social System Reformation for Adaptation to Climate Change”, Strategic
Funds for the promotion of Science and Technology (JST/MEXT), and
follow the same data policy as for the domestic scientists:
Quick-look data are open on-line (Reproduction is prohibited)
X-NET data become open after two year of observation
JMA and MLIT data will become open (need agreement)
As for other special observation data, the observers keep their priority.
these data are basically offered individually by mutual agreement
between observers and users
Data taken by the most advanced systems described in A3.2 (C-band
polarimetric radar, KU-band radar, and dense AWS network) are in
principle not open for international participants.
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Proposal exchange/verification of LAM TC
products
Aim: enhance use of LAM’s and LAM EPS’s in TC forecasting
Proposal: extend approach followed in existing TL-FDP to LAM’s.
Objectives of existing TL-FDP
To enhance the ability of forecasters to issue timely and accurate
typhoon forecasts and strengthen the ability of decision-makers to
analyze and determine the accuracy of typhoon forecasts
To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced typhoon
forecasting technique in the world
WWRP
To assess the WMO-TLFDP’s impacts on enhancing the typhoon
forecast service as well as its social and economic benefits
To promote the implementation of the most up to date forecast
technique for landfall typhoons in typhoon-affected Members of WMO
To enhance the capability of forecasting typhoon landfall for the
“Shanghai MHEWS” to enable SMS to provide enhanced typhoon
forecast service during Shanghai Expo 2010
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Activities in TL-FDP
Real time data collection
A total of 13 typhoon forecast products providers
Products dissemination
Website in both Chinese and English
Forecast verification
Real-time + post-season (track, intensity,
precipitation)
WWRP
A survey of operational TC forecast verification
practice in the WNP region
A guideline for TC forecast verification
Training and benefit assessment
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WWRP
Tropical
Cyclone
Research
and Review, Vol. 1, No. 3, 361-372
JSC meeting,
17-19 July
2013
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Operational TC forecast verification practice in the western
North Pacific region
The current operational status of TC forecast
verification has been analyzed on the basis of an email survey covering all the Members of
UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee
Main conclusions are
Significant efforts have been focused on the verification
of TC track forecast guidance by operational forecast
agencies in the region (mostly global models)
WWRP
Only a few verification products are available for
probabilistic forecasts from EPS
Verification of TC intensity, precipitation and high wind
forecasts are lacking sufficient attention in the region
The international exchange of TC forecasts from
regional models deserves to be paid more attention
(intensity & precipitation).
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WWRP
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A proposal to extend TC exchange and verification
to LAM’s
It is proposed to explore the definition of an FDP aiming at the extension of TC
international exchange and verification, as started in TL-FDP for TC tracks, to
LAM and LAM EPS forecasts of TC intensity and precipitation, later possibly
also wind. Start with existing models, NW Pac?
WWRP
Aim: Improve operational fc capability of TC intensity, precipitation to +48h:
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Set up guidelines and establish data center for exchange of (existing) global, LAM and
LAM EPS TC products
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Evaluate models’ performance for TC intensity, precipitation
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Gain understanding of physical mechanisms underlying different model performance,
performance and impact of different DA systems, and impact of different observing
systems on fc quality
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Propose skillful multi-model consensus fc scheme
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Establish fc range in which the LAM model output is useful
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Enhance application of advanced LAM’s and LAM EPS’s
The JSC is requested to endorse an investigation into the viability of such an TLLAM FDP.
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