Transcript WWRP- WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Assessment System (SDS-WAS) SOME RESEARCH ASPECTS IN THE SDS-WAS IMPLEMENTATION Slobodan Nickovic GAW Research Department World Meteorological Organization WWRP JSC 21-24

WWRP-
WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning and
Assessment System (SDS-WAS)
SOME RESEARCH ASPECTS
IN THE SDS-WAS IMPLEMENTATION
Slobodan Nickovic
GAW
Research Department
World Meteorological Organization
WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011
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GAW
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Dust Plumes off Libya and Egypt
February 18, 2011
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MODIS detection of dust strom
GAW
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Health
NASA dust-health related project
REASoN – PHAiRS (2008-2011)
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Sources based on MODIS hi-res data
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Health
NASA dust-health related project
REASoN – PHAiRS (2008-2011)
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Hot-spot structure of sources
Requires hi-res models
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Health
NASA dust-health related project
REASoN – PHAiRS (2008-2011)
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Comparison with observed values
450
19-22h UTC
00-03h UTC
430
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Mean values for 3 locations with observations: Casa Grande, Stanfield,
Cowtown
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Links between meningitis and dusty weather
Project partners: WMO, WHO, GEO, IRI
MACC – AEMET & BSC
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Health
MERIT project
Sahel region within the
meningitis epidemics area
WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011
BSC dust model – 46 years of dust
& weather reanalysis (Perez et al.,
2007)
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WWRPGAW
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TUNIS (CNN) 7 May, 2002, 17:44 GMT -- An EgyptAir jet crashed on
a hillside outside Tunisia's capital, killing 18 people, a
government official said…
…Weather was foggy and rainy at the time, with sandstorms
blowing in from the Sahara Desert. ...
GAW
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Aviation
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Predicted dust load (μg m-2)
Predicted cross-section dust concentration (μg m-3)
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Features of the case:
- Major Mediterranean dust storm
- Fast moving system
- More than 5 mg m-3 in the
elevated dust cloud core!
dust
06 UTC, 7 May 2002 18-hr forecast
06 UTC, 7 May 2002 18-hr forecast
12 UTC, 7 May 2002 24-hr forecast
12 UTC, 7 May 2002 24-hr forecast
GAW
Tunisian dust storm captured by MODIS
Source: Steven D. Miller, NRL, Monterey
Site of the accident
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18 UTC, 7 May 2002 30-hr forecast
18 UTC, 7 May 2002 30-hr forecast
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Dust-radiation interactions
Including interaction dust and radiation can
Improve Weather Forecasts In A Regional
Model (Nickovic 2002)
Without aerosol Feedback
GAW
With aerosol feedback
Through negative feedback on winds “dust kills dust”. Perez et al., 2006
Ground cools down by ~5 C during strong SDS and air aloft warms slightly
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Can desert dust explain the outgoing longwave
radiation anomaly in the UK operational model over
the Sahara?
Haywood, et al., JGR 2003
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Assimilation
MODIS AOD in ECMWF MACC
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Assimilation of MACC dust AOD in a regional dust
model (WMO South East Regional Climate Centre)
With assimilation
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Without assimilation
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D8-WITH ASSIMILATION
GAW
WET DEPOSITION
DUST LOAD
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D8-NO ASSIMILATION
04 March 2010
Case of yellow snow observed by visitors in the Kopaonik sky resort
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(location
marked
with2011
)
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JSC 21-24
February
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Importance of mineral composition in desert
soils
• Fe and P embedded in dust  ocean nutrients
• cloud ice nucleation sensitive to mineral composition
GAW
• Hypothesis: Fe as an enhancement factor in
meningitis outbreaks (Thompson, 2008)
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Illite
Kaolinite
Clay soils
Calcite
GAW
Smectite
Quartz
Quartz
Feldspar
Fe-containing minerals
A(I,J); 4km
Calcite
Silt soils
WWRP JSC
21-24 February 2011
Hematite
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ATMOSPHERIC IRON PROCESSING
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Ocean productivity
WMO in GESAMP
• Dust is a carrier of the embedded nutrients
such as Fe and phosphorus
• In remote oceans, input of iron in dust
dominates other inputs
• Soluble iron is an essential micronutrient in
marine environments
• SDS-WAS and GESAMP
(joint workshop, March 2011)
Algae Bloom Canary Islands
August 2004
(Ramos et al., 2008)
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Vertical
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Horizontal
Solubility
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Concentration
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Dust – efficient ice nucleation substance
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Saharan Dust And Ice Nuclei Over Central Europe
• The number concentration of ice nuclei data
since January 2008 at the Taunus Observatory
• DREAM simulations
• Joint study [Goethe-University group and WMO (Nickovic, Barrie)]
combining observations and dust modelling
GAW
• May 2008 case
Klein, et al: Saharan Dust And Ice Nuclei Over Central Europe (ACP, 2010)
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25 May 09
27 May 09
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DREAM simulation:
Dust load and 850
hPa wind streamlines
WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011 29 May 09
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Model
Observations
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Homogenization of forecasts
BSC-DREAM
ECMWF-dust
Dust aerosol at the surface (mg m-3)
Dust Aerosol optical depth at
550nm
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Homogenization
- Data format (GRIB2)
- Products
- Forecasting range +72h, every 3h
- Geographical domain
- Lat/Lon
- Color palette
- ...
……N Model
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WWRP-
International Cooperative on Aerosol
Prediction (ICAP)
GAW
NAAPS
GEOS
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MACC
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