Transcript Working Group on Nowcasting Research Annual Report to JSC6Paul Joe WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

Working Group on Nowcasting
Research
Annual Report to JSC6
20130718
Paul Joe
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
1
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
Membership
JSC5 Action Items
Projects – Near Past, Current and Future
Other Activities
Planned Meetings
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
2
Approval/Advice from JSC
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Membership Scheduling?
Lake Victoria (defer to 4.7)
WGNR Meeting – EA 2014?
WSN15 or WSN16 – begin to prepare?
WWOSC Nowcasting White Paper?
Merging?
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
3
Tom Keenan
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
Steve Goodman
4
•Startup in 2003
•Staggered membership began in 2011
•Now organized to change every 4 years*
•Chair in year preceding year
•2 term rule*
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
5
JSC5 Action Items
• 36 – CIMO Link
• 38 – Lake Victoria
• 39 – Contribute to WIGOS
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
6
36 CIMO Link
• “Link should be established with CIMO to look
into defining a standard for operational
instrumentation.”
•
Action to: Chairs of JWGFVR, WGNR, CAS President
• DONE!
• JWGFVR is a member of the Solid Precipitation
Inter-comparison Experiment International
Organizing Committee of CIMO (June 2013)
• Defer to JWGFR report
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
7
38 – Lake Victoria
• “Executive Council requested WWRP to
investigate a Lake Victoria Basin
Understanding project. UKMO noted gap
in lack of evaluation process for local
forecasts in Lake Victoria region, JSC
asked to consider establishing a field
RDP.”
• On-going
• Discussed under “future project 4.7”
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
8
39 - Contribute to WIGOS
• JSC recommended provision of quantified
WWRP requirements as input to WIGOS.
• Provided input to CBS/SBO Weather Radar
Data Exchange Initiative - DONE
• Plan is to organize various FDP science and
monitoring leads to draft “user requirements
table” for nowcasting data requirements for fine
scale observation and prediction
– On-going/see next slide
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
9
GCOS Data Requirements Table
Spatial Resolution
Cycle Time
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
10
Projects
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
SNOW-V10
NWP for Nowcasting
FROST14
INCA-CE
TOMACS
Korea 2018
Lake Victoria Project
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
11
SNOW-V10
3 journal papers published
17 journal papers accepted for
publication
40+ Conference papers
More to come…
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
12
SNOW-V10 FROST-14
Capacity Building Oct 2012
Sochi Forecaster Training
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
13
Weather Olympians
2014
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
1980
2000
2014
14
FROST-2014:
• To develop a comprehensive information resource of alpine
winter weather observations;
• To improve and exploit:
– high-resolution deterministic mesoscale forecasts of
meteorological conditions in winter complex terrain environment;
– regional meso-scale ensemble forecast products in winter
complex terrain environment;
– nowcast systems of high impact weather phenomena (wind,
visibility, precipitation type and intensity etc.) in complex terrain.
• To improve the understanding of physics of high impact weather
phenomena in the region;
• To deliver deterministic and probabilistic forecasts in real time to
Olympic weather forecasters and decision makers.
• To assess benefits of forecast improvement (verification and
societal impacts)
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
15
Today’s network of meteorological stations
in the region of Sochi
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
16
Vaisala C-band Doppler radar WRM200 on Akhun
mountain in Sochi was launched in September 2012
Altitude – 646 m
Location:
43о32’52,6 ‫״‬N, 39о51‫׳‬05,0‫״‬E.
• Max reflectivity;
• wind&refl 2km-cappy;
• echo tops;
• 1-hour precipitation
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
Raw Turkish data
are expected to be
17
available
Mobile Remote Sensing
Vertical Profile of Doppler Spectra
MRR Radiometer Wind Profiler
Radiometer
+ 4 times/day upper air
sounding in Sochi
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
MRR
18
3. DEMOS – 24 Jan 2013 (heavy rain/snow)
2.5 km
1.0 km
250m
Precipitation Cascading Domain
Wind Same domain
25 Jan 2013
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
19
Model Elevation – Jason Milbrandt
3. DEMOS – 24 Jan 2013 (heavy rain/snow)
250 m
X-C
S-J
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
Alpine
20
Ensemble project component
Current state: COSMO-S14-EPS, GLAMEPS, NOAA-7km EPS,
COSMO-RU2-EPS
Expected: HARMON-EPS, Aladin LAEF / AROME-1km,
KMA’s downscaling of probabilistic forecasts.
Poor man’s ensemble of deterministic high-resolution models
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
21
INCA-CE
See Ingo Meirold-Mautner report. Agenda item 4.3..
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
22
TOMACS Proposal
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
23
Use of Dense Observations
11+ radars
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
24
Fine Scale Data Assimilation
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
25
PyeongChang Korea 2018
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
Radars
Wind Profiler
AWS
Met. Sensors of IPS
26
Surface detectors
Met. Supports : Specialized Support System
 Special Observation
 Research (snow process and physics)
 Forecasting system development
Sonde Special OBS
Snow process and physics
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
Precipitation type Forecast
27
Met. Supports : Specialized Support System
 Research on the physical processes over the rugged terrain
and High Mountain
Forecast system specialized on
mountain :
Radiation over slope
SFC TEMP at sunrise
(SH-ORG)
Freezing level Forecast
Understanding the specific physical processes over the
mountainous area
through
the18
special
WGNR
- JSC6 July
2013 observation
28
Met. Supports : Specialized Support System
 Supporting system for each venues
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
29
Lake Victoria Project Proposal
“WMO Executive Council (EC)
recommended that a World Weather
Research Programme (WWRP) project
be considered for the Lake Victoria
Watershed that would include a test-bed
for field campaigns to collect data for
Four Components
1.
2.
3.
4.
research to understand the dynamics
The Nowcast System
The SWFDP
The Field Project
Capacity Building
over the lake in order to reduce
disaster from water spouts, waves, and
wind gusts that affect both lake transport
and fishermen who rely on the lake for
their livelihoods. The EC further noted
the potential linkages with the SWFDP
for Eastern Africa."
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
EC 2010
30
Lake Victoria
(Item 4.7)
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
31
The Field Project
• Meteorological
Understanding
• Scientific Validation
• Statistical Verification
Red Stars – surveillance radar
White Stars – hi res radar,
dual-doppler
Blue Star 6 – IOS
Blue Star 4 – Upper Air Station
Yellow – Met Stns
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
32
Other Activities
Planned Meetings
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
33
NWP for Nowcasting
1. Predictability of Precipitation
Systems
2. Mesoscale Networks
3. Data Assimilation and Rapid
Update
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
34
WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting Research
Rio di Janiero, Aug 2012
166 participants from
21 countries
Radar Renewal in SA
Nowcasting Impetus
+ 2 hours of lectures
each day
La Plata
Rio 2016
Port Ops
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
35
Argentina Training (T-NOTE)
• Initiated by radar
renewal, radar
networks, nowcasting
needs, La Plata Basin
• Initiated by Celeste
Saulo, Paola Salio,
Claudio Campetella,
WSN12
• Lead trainer is Rita
Roberts of NCAR
• 5-16 August 2013 in
Buenos Aires
TRMM Height of 40 dBZ Echo
TRMM Lightning Flash #/min
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
36
The Workshop Agenda
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
37
EUMETNET – Nowcasting
New initiative began 1 Jan 2013
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
38
Membership
(23 Countries)
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
39
Nowcasting Activity
24.04.2013
EUMETNET
Milestones
•
Establishment of a group of nowcasting experts under the EUMETNET governance
and their motivation for engagement in the nowcasting related planning within
EUMETNET
•
Provision of a scientific and technical overview of the applied nowcasting systems
in Europe including quality assessment and development of verification standards for
nowcasting (define parameters to verify, methods and observations to use for
verification)
•
Identification of (scientific or technical) elements in the presently existing nowcasting
systems, which are worthwhile for exchange between members and the organization
of the exchange process
•
Assessment and interpretation of observation and NWP requirements for improved
nowcasting and their communication with the relevant communities
•
Preparation of the Nowcasting Activity proposal for the second phase (20142017)
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
40
Nowcasting Activity
24.04.2013
EUMETNET
Deadline
01.03.2013
Deliverables
Deliverables
Nomination of representative experts of members;
set up Working Area (WA) teams, Expert Team, Observers;
ToR of ET, WA teams and WA leaders
23.-24.04.2013 1. Face-to-face Meeting of ET (in the frame of INCA-CE
(orig.
Progress Meeting), WA working plan
15.06.2013)
ET meeting (possibly via teleconference), WA progress report
15.11.2013
01.05.2014
Nowcasting conference, WA final report
01.06.2014
Different reports and assessments
30.06.2014
Proposal for the second phase to be submitted to EUMETNET
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
41
Re-Organization
JONAS + WGNR
WGNR + WGMWFR
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
42
JONAS = WGNR + PWS
• Action item from JSC4
• Discussion initiated with PWS
– Open discussion, various options discussed
– Planned to meet this week -> TBD
WGNR/WWRP
CBS
-FDP’s/RDP’s
GDPFS (SWFDP)
PWS (SWFDP, WENS)
JWGVFR?
SERA?
Obs Dept?
Technology Transfer Activities
-Advance
-Promote
-Capacity Build
•Guide to Nowcasting
•Promote
•Capacity Building
•Training Workshop
43
WGNR + WGMWFR
•Initiated by WWRP
•Telecon, WGMWFR in June 2013
•No discussion within WGNR
WWW
CBS
CIMO
CAS
WWRP
WGNR WGMWFR HIW
GDPFS
JONAS
PWS
WGNE
DAOS
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
44
Brainstorm at WGMWFR
Benefits:
Automation ->
NWP
•Parameterization
Probabilistic/Ense
•Numerics
mble Nowcasting
•Gray Zone
Focus on 2-12 gap
•Typhoon LAM
Mutli-parameter
•Land Surface Data Sets
•Optimal Use of existing
Hi-Res NWP dev
networks
Impact
•Co-chair, membership at 20?
•Too broad? 20 is unwieldy,
difficult to cover expectations if
much less?
•Severe Weather?
Hi-Res NWP use •Understanding
Fine Scale DA dev
•Systems,
Fine Scale DA Heuristics
Observations DQ
analysis •Forecaster
Interaction
Brief Summary:
Observations DQ •Promotion
No one at WGMWFR
•Capacity Building
Gaps:
adverse to re-organization
•New Technologies
Forecast Systems
•Maturity, skill of
Address gaps?
NWP for severe
Observations
Clarity on rationale? Since WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
weather (core) 45
many options.
Early Activities
• Guide to Nowcasting (P. Li, HKO)
• Aviation Nowcasting Initiative (P. Li, HKO)
– CAEM developing strategic plan for aviation
– SESAR in Europe
– NEXTGEN in U.S.
• Brazil Regional Training Centre – Nowcasting
– Presented in WGNR Rio meeting
– At USP, extended training workshops (2-6 weeks);
annual
– Request sustainability plan
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
46
Planned Meetings
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Lake Victoria Planning Meetings?
WGNR – East Africa 2014?
EUMETNET Nowcasting 11/2013 or Spring 2014?
TOMACS Kickoff – Dec 2013
FROST 14 Science – Spring 2014
WWOSC – Montreal, July 2014
WSN 15 or 16?
– Hong Kong, Capetown, Sydney, Shanghai
– EUMENET Nowcasting Meeting ~May 2014
• Urban Nowcasting Workshop 2015/16?
– TOMACS, SREP, Pan Am2015
– With WSN?
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
PanAm15 Wx, AQ, HI
47
Approval/Advice from JSC
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Membership Scheduling?
Lake Victoria (defer to 4.7)
WGNR Meeting – EA 2014?
WSN15 or WSN16 – begin to prepare?
WWOSC Nowcasting White Paper
expected?
6. Merging?
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
48
Thank You
WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013
49